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UA to pilots: We're considering retiring all 747s by end of 2018 (Phaseout EOY 2017).

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Old Nov 20, 2016, 11:21 am
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United to retire 747 by end of 2017

Current scheduled 747 routes

Currently 14 left, retirement plan as follows(updated Aug 2017):

N127UA Owned - Exit 15-Aug-17 Age 18.0
N181UA Lease -01-Nov-17 -Exit 15-Oct-17 Lease return Age 26.0
N117UA Owned - Exit 30-Oct-17 Age 18.8
N174UA Lease- 09-Dec-17 Exit 30-Oct-17 Lease return Age 27.8
N105UA Lease- 09-Dec-17 Exit 01-Nov-17 Lease return Age 23.4
N107UA Lease- 01-Jun-18 Exit 01-Nov-17 Lease return Age 19.2
N175UA Owned - Exit 01-Nov-17 Age 27.2
N116UA Owned - Exit 10-Nov-17 Age 18.9
N118UA Owned - Exit 10-Nov-17 Age 18.7
N128UA Owned - Exit 10-Nov-17 Age 17.5
N119UA Owned - Exit 20-Nov-17 Age 18.7
N121UA Owned - Exit 20-Nov-17 Age 18.6
N178UA Lease - 01-May-18 Exit 20-Nov-17 Lease return Age 27.1
N180UA Owned - 20-Nov-17 Age 26.3

See details at United Fleet Site.
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UA to pilots: We're considering retiring all 747s by end of 2018 (Phaseout EOY 2017).

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Old Feb 26, 2016, 11:09 am
  #151  
 
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I continually marvel at the Boeing 747-Joe Sutter's design was remarkable in so many respects and-spoiler alert-one of the best rides I have ever had in business class was on a UA 747 from SFO to HKG. Exit Row, Upper Deck, right side, vivacious flight attendant who was attentive, highly professional flight deck crew. Despite what is now viewed as inadequate for business class travel-the barcalounger seats and the tiny video screens that emerged from the seats-the trip was a great experience. Something about the combination of the upper deck and the flight attendant's performance made it perfect. (Unfortunately for UA, every trip description like this is weighed down by 2 or 3 mediocre and forgettable experiences and 1 nasty memory)

According to Wikipedia, Juan Trippe of PanAm, upon receiving his first 747-100 said "a great weapon of peace, competing with the intercontinental missiles, for man's destiny."
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 11:49 am
  #152  
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Originally Posted by mduell
Most of those years they weren't even averaging one PMUA 757 day DCA-ORD, and never averaged two or more a day. I don't see how you can reasonably call that "very common".

The delusion is strong in this thread about where PMUA was deploying 757s.
In that timeframe I can say without equivocation that PMUA was deploying 757s DEN-OMA, DEN-MCI, and DEN-SNA.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 12:03 pm
  #153  
 
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Originally Posted by RCyyz
In a lot of ways, it seems that LH will be the last of *A to fly the 747. But since they didn't buy very many of the 748, I suspect that the end of 747 for all of *A will come sooner than I want!
Originally Posted by UA_Flyer
Don't forget Air China's 748s are newer than the LH birds.
Don't forget TG - they still have several in their fleet.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 12:51 pm
  #154  
 
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Originally Posted by mduell
Most of those years they weren't even averaging one PMUA 757 day DCA-ORD, and never averaged two or more a day. I don't see how you can reasonably call that "very common".

The delusion is strong in this thread about where PMUA was deploying 757s.
I know you have access, do you have access to back then? I honestly don't remember not flying into LGA or DCA on anything but a 57.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 1:53 pm
  #155  
 
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How far back do we have to go to reasonably attribute these scheduling practices to yet another CO-driven affront to pre-merger United's unblemished reputation?
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 5:13 pm
  #156  
 
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Originally Posted by EWR764
How far back do we have to go to reasonably attribute these scheduling practices to yet another CO-driven affront to pre-merger United's unblemished reputation?
Before the first United-Continental de merger - you know, when they were spun out from Varney.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 5:50 pm
  #157  
 
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Originally Posted by EWR764
How far back do we have to go to reasonably attribute these scheduling practices to yet another CO-driven affront to pre-merger United's unblemished reputation?
I'm not sure people are blaming sCO, CO defenders get defensive over anything people say about the beloved.

Retiring the 747 in 2018 may be a bit too early. Letting go of 70 757's was a drastic mistake. The 739's are pure junk. From bad economy seats to bad first class seats to runway hogs, to aircraft slipping on runways. They are junk. The 757 should've been kept a bit longer instead UA bought outdated 739's. UA again bought 777's that are also outdated. Whoever made the decision to retire the 757 fleet should be fired. If they are sCO or sUA, they deserve to go.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 7:42 pm
  #158  
 
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Originally Posted by LASUA1K
I'm not sure people are blaming sCO, CO defenders get defensive over anything people say about the beloved.

Retiring the 747 in 2018 may be a bit too early. Letting go of 70 757's was a drastic mistake. The 739's are pure junk. From bad economy seats to bad first class seats to runway hogs, to aircraft slipping on runways. They are junk. The 757 should've been kept a bit longer instead UA bought outdated 739's. UA again bought 777's that are also outdated. Whoever made the decision to retire the 757 fleet should be fired. If they are sCO or sUA, they deserve to go.
Ditching the sUA 757 domestic fleet was one of Smisek's smartest moves. United realizes substantial savings in fuel and *especially* maintenance costs from the switch to 737s.

Maintenance costs are a BIG factor for aircraft replacement/retirement decisions in the 21st century airline industry. Airlines rely on expensive and expansive (in-house and outsourced) maintenance facilities and globalized supplier chains to keep a fleet in the air. Over an aircraft type's operating life, maintenance costs will increase -- and ultimately, skyrocket -- as the parts supplier chains steadily shrink, and the required mx infrastructure is borne over a diminishing worldwide fleet.

I wouldn't be surprised if, on a unit cost basis, the Boeing 757 has become the most expensive mainline aircraft to maintain for United, Delta, and American, with the 744 not far behind for UA/DL.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 8:06 pm
  #159  
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Originally Posted by nerdbirdsjc
Ditching the sUA 757 domestic fleet was one of Smisek's smartest moves. United realizes substantial savings in fuel and *especially* maintenance costs from the switch to 737s.
Perhaps the 757 was getting too expensive. Where Smisek made his mistake was buying customer unfriendly 739s when he should have been buying A321s. I've had several trips on legacy AA 321's, and those are nice rides compared to the 739.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 8:07 pm
  #160  
 
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Originally Posted by nerdbirdsjc
Ditching the sUA 757 domestic fleet was one of Smisek's smartest moves. United realizes substantial savings in fuel and *especially* maintenance costs from the switch to 737s.

Maintenance costs are a BIG factor for aircraft replacement/retirement decisions in the 21st century airline industry. Airlines rely on expensive and expansive (in-house and outsourced) maintenance facilities and globalized supplier chains to keep a fleet in the air. Over an aircraft type's operating life, maintenance costs will increase -- and ultimately, skyrocket -- as the parts supplier chains steadily shrink, and the required mx infrastructure is borne over a diminishing worldwide fleet.

I wouldn't be surprised if, on a unit cost basis, the Boeing 757 has become the most expensive mainline aircraft to maintain for United, Delta, and American, with the 744 not far behind for UA/DL.

I'd be more surprised if the 757's are more expensive to maintain than the 767's are, even DL's 767's are going MX often. The 744's of course, very expensive, if for no other reason than they have twice as many engines.

Last edited by transportbiz; Feb 26, 2016 at 8:36 pm
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 8:10 pm
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Originally Posted by halls120
Perhaps the 757 was getting too expensive. Where Smisek made his mistake was buying customer unfriendly 739s when he should have been buying A321s. I've had several trips on legacy AA 321's, and those are nice rides compared to the 739.
+1 The more experience I have with Airbus aircraft as a passenger, the more impressed I am with them. For one thing, they were able to engineer a front lavatory toilet seat that would stay up without holding it, those stupid 738's would literally piss me off.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 8:19 pm
  #162  
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Originally Posted by nerdbirdsjc
Ditching the sUA 757 domestic fleet was one of Smisek's smartest moves. United realizes substantial savings in fuel and *especially* maintenance costs from the switch to 737s.

Maintenance costs are a BIG factor for aircraft replacement/retirement decisions in the 21st century airline industry. Airlines rely on expensive and expansive (in-house and outsourced) maintenance facilities and globalized supplier chains to keep a fleet in the air. Over an aircraft type's operating life, maintenance costs will increase -- and ultimately, skyrocket -- as the parts supplier chains steadily shrink, and the required mx infrastructure is borne over a diminishing worldwide fleet.

I wouldn't be surprised if, on a unit cost basis, the Boeing 757 has become the most expensive mainline aircraft to maintain for United, Delta, and American, with the 744 not far behind for UA/DL.
I don't think anything smart or good came from Smisek the "Low-Energy Stiff." That's why he's not at UA anymore.

Oh com'on now - the 757 is definitely NOT the most expensive to maintain on a per unit basis. DL is in fact keeping nearly 100 of their 752s by converting them to a 200 seat configuration. Considering DL owns them outright, this is a very smart move. I wouldn't be surprised if it's cheaper to keep and update them then to buy brand new 739s - which apparently is a despised aircraft by DL crews and pilots alike.

Don't kid yourself either - the 739ERs have their own MX issues as well. They seem to be delayed quite often for a whole other slew of reasons - mainly with sensitivity to loading bags & weight restrictions. And there have been 3-4 UA 737 slide offs this past winter which was also pretty bizarre.

Taking all of this in and noting that they're likely debt-financed with high lease rates (CO) compounded by low oil prices - it's probably a wash in terms of ownership over the 757.

Now on the other hand, the 763s always seem to be going technical - they probably have higher MX costs than the '57.

Last edited by REPUBLIC757; Feb 26, 2016 at 8:49 pm
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 9:16 pm
  #163  
 
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How about this thread be more about the 747 retirement and less about what aircraft flew what routes in the past or what other airlines do/did etc. Just saying.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 9:19 pm
  #164  
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The PMUA 757s were built between 1989 and 1993 with three built in 1996. Theoretically, UA definitely could have hung on to these planes until the 737-9 MAX/A321neo was available. However, I believe these planes were also kept to a minimum in regards to maintenance. Also keep in mind oil prices were much higher when the 737-900ER order was made.

I should also point out that DL is dumping 757s similar in age to UA's. When DL made their 737-900ER, they were also planning on dumping 757s built before 1995. However, in light of low oil prices, they've decided to keep 14 1992/1993 builds at least into next decade. But keep in mind, DL is reconfiguring these aircraft from 24F/156Y to 20F/179Y, decreasing CASM. (Management noted this at the annual investor meeting). Also helps that DL is more flexible in aircraft assignments, hence why they're keeping MD88s into next decade.

DL and UA have used the 757s for somewhat rather different missions in the past. DL can live with some of the inefficiencies of the gas guzzler by keeping the plane on ATL-Florida flights while UA can't justify the cost of flying the 757s on transcons and Hawai'i runs. While everyone except bean counters at DL/UA hate the 737-900ER, there is a tremendous cost difference when flying the 737-900ER versus the 757 on a transcon like IAD-SFO. Also helps UA was able to sell a bunch of the 757s while DL is flying them until C/D checks.

Getting back to the 747 retirement, UA is probably seriously considering adding more 77Ws to their initial order of ten. I was not sold that they purchasing just ten of them when it was announced last year. Boeing is trying to sell as many of them in the 2018/2019 timeframe before the 777X enters service in 2020 and they're not having exactly the best of luck. With Boeing's final PIP to the 77W before the 777X, the cost difference between a 60J/306Y plane 77W and a 60J/~270Y A35J is not that big of a difference that Airbus would like to project. (Wonder why Airbus is struggling to gain A35J orders? Even before the launch of the 77X, the A35J wasn't gaining many orders.) When factoring in costs, UA could 10-15 of these planes to complete the phase out of the 747 by the end of 2018. In addition to being a good aircraft to fill out the heavy long haul routes out of EWR, several SFO-Asia routes that require 747 capacity would fit well with 77W instead of the smaller A35J, like SFO-PVG. As an armchair CEO, I would order 25 more of these planes at the rock bottom prices Boeing is offering and postpone the A35J order indefinitely with the option of converting the orders into A359s when the time comes for the 777-200ERs to retire. The 77W is a ridiculously great aircraft that will be flying for decades to come.

Last edited by Longboater; Feb 26, 2016 at 9:42 pm
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 10:09 pm
  #165  
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Originally Posted by Longboater
The PMUA 757s were built between 1989 and 1993 with three built in 1996.

I should also point out that DL is dumping 757s similar in age to UA's. When DL made their 737-900ER, they were also planning on dumping 757s built before 1995. However, in light of low oil prices, they've decided to keep 14 1992/1993 builds at least into next decade.

DL and UA have used the 757s for somewhat rather different missions in the past. DL can live with some of the inefficiencies of the gas guzzler by keeping the plane on ATL-Florida flights while UA can't justify the cost of flying the 757s on transcons and Hawai'i runs. While everyone except bean counters at DL/UA hate the 737-900ER, there is a tremendous cost difference when flying the 737-900ER versus the 757 on a transcon like IAD-SFO. Also helps UA was able to sell a bunch of the 757s while DL is flying them until C/D checks.

Getting back to the 747 retirement, UA is probably seriously considering adding more 77Ws to their initial order of ten. I was not sold that they purchasing just ten of them when it was announced last year. Boeing is trying to sell as many of them in the 2018/2019 timeframe before the 777X enters service in 2020 and they're not having exactly the best of luck. With Boeing's final PIP to the 77W before the 777X, the cost difference between a 60J/306Y plane 77W and a 60J/~270Y A35J is not that big of a difference that Airbus would like to project. (Wonder why Airbus is struggling to gain A35J orders? Even before the launch of the 77X, the A35J wasn't gaining many orders.) When factoring in costs, UA could 10-15 of these planes to complete the phase out of the 747 by the end of 2018. In addition to being a good aircraft to fill out the heavy long haul routes out of EWR, several SFO-Asia routes that require 747 capacity would fit well with 77W instead of the smaller A35J, like SFO-PVG. As an armchair CEO, I would order 25 more of these planes at the rock bottom prices Boeing is offering and postpone the A35J order indefinitely with the option of converting the orders into A359s when the time comes for the 777-200ERs to retire. The 77W is a ridiculously great aircraft that will be flying for decades to come.
sUA had 757 deliveries between 1989 & 1999 & sCO was 1994 to 2000. They dumped frames from 1996 and sold to FEDEX in some cases. Yet UA kept PS 757 frames from both 1999 and 1989 so (as I've mentioned in previous posts) it doesn't seem like they took inventory very well. Cycles for the 1989 birds have to be up there.

I call it short term cost cutting thinking by Rainey & Smisek - looking to make a quick buck to FEDEX as this was around the time they were losing lot's of money in late 2013 early 2014.

This was how CO managed their fleet - even if it was somewhat inefficient (762ER) as long as it was new it was "good enough." Hence the dated and brand new 739ERs which are dumpy as hell.

While I appreciate your analysis, why you say DL is keeping 757 VS. UA doesn't make much sense. It costs more money for a 757 to fly ATL-Florida than say LAX-HNL.

UA really needs this 757 lift on CA to Hawaii and East Coast to CA as the sCO 757s are still very tied up with TATL routes. DL's new 757s are used throughout the system but especially MSP/DTW/ATL-LAX. If need be, UA can go to the desert and retrieve some frames.

Back to the 744, I still stand by the fact that they are hangar queens. There has to be a deep maintenance algorithm which makes them inefficient even in times of low oil price.

The writing was on the wall with the 744 fleet at UA when DL announced dumped them after doing nose to tail AVOD installations in 2012-2013. The fact that DL will keep a near 30 year old M88 around but not a 2002 delivered 744 was a BIG warning sign that UA was probably thinking of dumping them as well.

Never been on a 744 but I feel for folks as I'm a big 757 fan and it's tough to see AA & UA dumping them. What's even sadder is the fact that the F & J cabins seem to be among the best in the entire fleet.
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