emcampbe

So, something I haven't seen before and hoping someone might be able to explain. Looking to go SFO - SW Ohio in spring. Preferably in/out of CVG, but I'm ok with some of the surrounding airports as well. This is a Thurs-Sun trip.

Looking it up, fares returning from CVG are pretty high, but the non-stop return out of CMH works well. We could do the R/T, but the inbound into CMH is a little later than I'd prefer, so ideally would connect, leaving SFO early and going via DEN/ORD, would get into CVG in the early - mid afternoon. Here's the interesting thing though. SFO-CMH roundtrip is actually more than SFO-CVG/CMH-SFO. On top of that, can't figure out why.

For SFO-CVG/CMH-SFO, fare basis is SAA2AKEN outbound, TFA4ODER return. For the all CMH itin, outbound fare basis is LFA4ADDN outbound, TFA4ODDN on the return. Kicking my self for not booking last night, when the fares were about $25 less per person on either, as the CMH-SFO was booking into L. Maybe I'll wait until next week. But the real question is, how is a roundtrip with an L and T fare basis more expensive than a roundtrip on an S and T fare. I realize CMH and CVG are different markets, but as someone who lived in S. Ohio for years, I know that CMH is typically cheaper than CVG to fly into/out of. But really confused about how the higher fare class into CVG is cheaper than the lower fare class into CMH. Is it just a 'non-stop' penalty. Or something else going on here.

My other option is to do the whole thing into IND, which is cheaper than either, but a PITA as convenience of those flights, with a redeye east and early morning west, is just not good for us.

jsloan

You've answered your own question. Airfare is set by market. UA has decided to offer lower fares, even with better inventory, into CVG than CMH on your travel dates. There's likely nothing more mysterious than that.

Repooc17

Looks like Breeze has nonstop flights between SFO and CVG, albeit on a very limited schedule.

Min. 1 stop is needed for all legacy carriers. Why not just buy the one with the best price?

findark

In addition to CVG and CMH just being different markets with different fare tables, the -ER fare is available while combined with the -EN fare on SFO-CVG because it's "high enough" (has no Basic Economy match, or it would be a -DN fare) which gets you a discount equal to the Basic Economy differential. (The -ER fares let you pay BE rates h/r/t for regular Economy, but require combination with higher fares.)

ERtraveler

SFO-KOA mid-Oct 2023 fares are more than double what we typically pay. Seems a little less pricey if we travel on weekdays but I’ve mever seen prices this high, especially for business. Any ideas?

Repooc17

Revenue management likely has not touched fares 9 months out and fine tune them based on expected demand.

Do you normally buy tickets so far out? 3-6 weeks usually the sweet spot based on my experience, or whatever the longest advance purchase period would be.

ERtraveler

I usually do book pretty far out as we only fly business or first and quite often for Big Island those seats sell out or there’s very little chance we can upgrade.

Repooc17

Maybe for a special event, or a major holiday, seats don't generally sell out. Even then, airlines would often create additional capacity if they are seeing higher than normal demand.

At this point for October tix, most fares have not been filed yet, so you are seeing some of the higher fare buckets by default. For example, I pulled up some random dates in October, and lots of C & D fares while cabins are wide open. You are not going to see lower rates until United files additional fares.

Generally speaking, airlines are in no rush to file discounted premium fares far out because they have data points in consumer buying behavior.

JapanFlyerT

Looking at flying in mid-March, KIX-PDX-KIX, I have seen some crazy changes the last few days (via SFO).

Most airlines are holding steady around 200,000-250,000 ($2,000), but United has been up and down a lot this week.

These are for economy fares in JPY.

245,000
167,000
218,000
312,000

FlyingRobot

I'm in the process of planning out about 10 trips for June-Dec this year and have noticed that for every international route I look at, United is 2x (or more) the price of American or Delta for direct fights and sometimes up to 3x the price when there is a single stop on the way in discount business class. All from LAX. Destinations like St. Thomas (not technically international?), London, Sydney, Tokyo, Geneva, Rio.

Additionally, everything is waitlisted for PlusPoint upgrades (no skip waitlist), and when I look at points pricing it is 200k-300k points EACH WAY for LAX-IAD-STT or LAX-IAH-STT... which seems crazy for 737 seats on a plane that is completely empty. Additionally, zero availability in saver fares (IN) or PZ that I could use a GS.

It is starting to feel like United cranked the dial a little too hard this year. As a GS, I'm really trying to stay loyal to United, but this pricing is making it really hard to justify.

wakesetter93

United is almost 2x AA on many of the domestic routes I'm looking at over the next 6-8 months. Going to have to make some decisions as to whether status requalification or price is more important to me. Looking at Montrose, CO in July and AA AUS-DFW-MTJ is $537 while UA AUS-DEN-MTJ is $1,058 for similar flight times.

Roger Lococco

Am I misremembering United Saver awards in Business from the United States to Asia as being 60k miles round trip in the past?

Last year I did some searches with flexible dates and it was often 650k points one way.

nomad420

Saw similar pricing same period so feel much the same way about UA. I have pretty much decided my loyalty to UA is waning fast. Moving slowly back to more AS and Delta flights to some of the destinations I fly. I haven't seen a skip the waitlist offer in almost a year. The points/pesos now are definitely now showing less and less value or at least it is extremely difficult to find value in them.

Eneka

I'm only seeing 70k r/t in Economy from IAD-TPE. Business was like 300k+ r/t

jsloan

Why?

As a general rule, UA simply is not interested in selling discount seats 6+ months ahead of departure. There's always time to offer a sale later, but if they start out with a low price and then demand comes in hotter than expected, they can't recoup that revenue.

If you know a market well, you can sometimes find a good deal well in advance, generally as a consequence of something else UA is doing. Otherwise, just monitor things and see how they look.

There are only two cases when it would make even the slightest bit of sense to book months in advance: (a) if upgrade space is available or (b) if a saver award is available. Outside of those two reasons, or maybe holiday travel, I don't even start looking for flights until ~3 months prior to departure for international and ~6 weeks prior for domestic. I do keep an eye on the Premium Fare Deals forum, though.

It depends upon how far you remember, I guess. 🤷‍♂️ 60K round trip sounds like a value from the early 90s, maybe? 60K each way is more recent, but depending upon the part of Asia you're talking about, the last chart went from ~70K to ~110K each way.