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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2016]

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2016]

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Old Jan 4, 16, 10:10 am
  #1  
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2016]

Hi, booked my flight a few months ago and tried to upgrade using miles and surcharge. The flight is in February.

Any chance this clears? When do they usually sweep and open up space?

Has anyone seen any luck with this?

Thanks
EWR
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Old Jan 4, 16, 10:25 am
  #2  
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MODERATOR NOTE

I've changed the title of this thread to [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2016] and closed the 2015 thread which can be found here as a reference point

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...ht-2015-a.html

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Old Jan 4, 16, 11:32 am
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Originally Posted by EWRtoSFO View Post
Hi, booked my flight a few months ago and tried to upgrade using miles and surcharge. The flight is in February.

Any chance this clears? When do they usually sweep and open up space?

Has anyone seen any luck with this?

Thanks
EWR
It really depends on the route, the loads, and the date of travel.

I've had everything from clearing 24 hours after putting in the request (when R=0) to clearing one hour before takeoff.

That tells me there is no set pattern, but that the other factors determine it. It also tells me that just because there is no R space available doesn't mean that mileage/instrument supported upgrade requests won't clear quickly.
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Old Jan 4, 16, 12:46 pm
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Oh, me!

I have a LAX-IAH flight departing at 0:58 on a Tuesday, a couple weeks from now. There are 14 First seats available, and 8 Economy Plus seats taken. I'm a lowly Silver on K fare. Do you think I may have a shot there?
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Old Jan 5, 16, 1:46 am
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Sorry about giving no info, its a SFO - EWR flight on PS. Still tons of seats available but i know that doesn't mean upgrade spots. Are PS inherently harder for upgrades using miles/surcharge route? Also do you guys think its worth it?
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Old Jan 5, 16, 11:33 am
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Originally Posted by EWRtoSFO View Post
Sorry about giving no info, its a SFO - EWR flight on PS. Still tons of seats available but i know that doesn't mean upgrade spots. Are PS inherently harder for upgrades using miles/surcharge route? Also do you guys think its worth it?
It is possible but
1) These flights get a lot of last minute business -- not uncommon to see many empty seats a couple weeks out and have them fill up by flight time. Given that UA is release few if any upgrades if UA thinks the flight will sell out.
2) Avoid peak road warrior times or red-eyes. 6AM and middle of the day in the middle of week are your best chances.

There is no CPU so everyone hoping for an upgrade is using certs or miles.
Given the limited availability, low status folks should try to find upgrade space at booking.
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Old Jan 5, 16, 2:29 pm
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Looking at a SFO-TPE roundtrip before the end of the month, to use some expiring GPUs. W fares are reasonable at $1,117 round-trip and available for most date ranges.

However, R space seems tight on the return. I'm looking to return 26 or 27th or so, and while I swear when I looked yesterday I thought it was R9, today it stands at R0. A 25th return only gives me 4 days in TPE, which is a little tighter than I'd like, and it's showing R2 today. What do y'all thing is the best move here; any chance of the upgrade clearing if I chance it on a 26 or 27 return?
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Old Jan 5, 16, 2:46 pm
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA View Post
Given the limited availability, low status folks should try to find upgrade space at booking.
Or just buy F/A/J/C/D/P/Z tickets straight up.

I am going from Platinum to nothing in 26 days, so that's what I will be doing. UA has competitive premium fares domestically, if you buy in advance, and the 2xPQM promo that UA is running in 2016 only makes the pot sweeter.

I just bought my first A tickets for February. I don't know if this is the behavior UA is trying to entice, but if it is, whatever they are doing is working.
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Old Jan 5, 16, 6:51 pm
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Originally Posted by helvetic View Post
What do y'all thing is the best move here; any chance of the upgrade clearing if I chance it on a 26 or 27 return?
I would not waitlist either of those. Booked nearly full in BF.

Have you considered an OJ back via NRT, HND, or ICN? R all over the place. Ex-NRT or ICN you can fly the 744.
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Old Jan 6, 16, 10:13 am
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
I would not waitlist either of those. Booked nearly full in BF.

Have you considered an OJ back via NRT, HND, or ICN? R all over the place. Ex-NRT or ICN you can fly the 744.
Ended up on the 747 upper deck on the return via NRT. Good call! $200 more, but worth it I think.

[What is an "OJ?"]
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Old Jan 6, 16, 10:27 am
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Originally Posted by helvetic View Post
Ended up on the 747 upper deck on the return via NRT. Good call! $200 more, but worth it I think.

[What is an "OJ?"]
Open Jaw.

In your case, fly in to TPE, out of NRT. BA Avios are particularly good for closing the OJ intra-Asia.
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Old Jan 7, 16, 7:19 am
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Does anyone know what kind of success rate there is for upgrades clearing on TLV-EWR? I've heard that it is a hard route to clear. I bought the ticket about a month ago on a W fare and applied a GPU at booking. The flight I'm on specifically is UA85 on 2/1. Thanks!
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Old Jan 7, 16, 7:28 am
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Originally Posted by vandrei View Post
Or just buy F/A/J/C/D/P/Z tickets straight up.

I am going from Platinum to nothing in 26 days, so that's what I will be doing. UA has competitive premium fares domestically, if you buy in advance, and the 2xPQM promo that UA is running in 2016 only makes the pot sweeter.

I just bought my first A tickets for February. I don't know if this is the behavior UA is trying to entice, but if it is, whatever they are doing is working.
Yes, little doubt that this is exactly UA's plan: provide multiple incentives for the purchase of premium cabin seats. BTW, interesting to characterize the 2x (and 3x for F fares) premium cabin earning as a promotion. My interpretation is that it is the new regular earning rule, and isn't subject to a planned reversion to the previous lower earning.
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Old Jan 7, 16, 9:13 am
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Originally Posted by doverflyer View Post
Does anyone know what kind of success rate there is for upgrades clearing on TLV-EWR? I've heard that it is a hard route to clear. I bought the ticket about a month ago on a W fare and applied a GPU at booking. The flight I'm on specifically is UA85 on 2/1. Thanks!
I've never been able to clear that route. I hear it's incredibly tough.
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Old Jan 25, 16, 12:15 pm
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Chance of GPU clearing

Don't know if this is the right place to post this but did a search and couldn't find any other thread or anything for 2016.
Flying ORD-NRT in mid May. What is the chance of 4 GPU's clearing from BF to GF?

Thanks!
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