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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

Old Jun 8, 2018, 7:21 pm
  #2836  
 
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Originally Posted by johnathome
Had to book a last minute flight from EWR to PEK this Saturday, 6/9. At the time, there were plenty of J seats. However also lots of Y seats and looking like I will have no companions next to me. Was offered a ridiculous price to upgrade so passed. Now T24, went to see if there was an opportunity to buy up but there was no option for either GPU, MUA or pay. Still shows 2 seats available with 2 people on the upgrade list.

Surprised UA doesn't try to sell those seats.
Don't worry for United. I'm sure they are trying to sell those seats......but to someone else. And, from my experience, flights to Asia always get full on week-ends. Passengers to those destinations tend not to choose their seats until check-in. Economy is nearly fully booked (2 seats left) which means that passengers that did not choose their seats will end up in Economy +.

In the one minute I was writing this, one Economy seat got chosen, so only one left
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 8:38 pm
  #2837  
 
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Originally Posted by fumje
https://www.cablepick.net/united will construct the flight status URL for you:
https://www.united.com/web/en-US/apps/travel/flightstatus/results.aspx?FLN=954&FLD=6/11/2018&FSO=SFO&FSD=TLV

There isn't a really reliable time for clearing, but the most likely would be one, two or three days before, at about 3a Central.
Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
The pattern of late purchases via by route, by season, by day of the week -- so no hard rule can be made for all routes. Same with the probable pattern of folks taking the cash upgrades.

The Expert Mode data can provide encouragement or discouragement. No Z or P inventory is not good news, PN0 also is poor news. And of course, R0 is poor news. Having some inventory in these categories is better news.

Airport irrops and/or delays /cancellations of prior flights on the route can positively or negatively impact the last minute chances.

There are too many moving parts to every make a reliable estimate but watching the big picture can retrospectively provide color to the situation.
Originally Posted by fumje
Check for lowest business fare bucket. The lower the lowest-open bucket is, the better the chance. E.g., J9 D9 C0 is bad, J9 ... P9 is good. PN>0 is especially good. (And obviously R/RN>0 is what you want!)

FWIW the booked count is 49/60 for 11-June UA954.
Originally Posted by Aussienarelle
Feeling very fortunate. All my GPUs have been applied for the year so bought a very, very cheap K fare and applied miles and co-pay. LAX-LHR for December 28 and after the -LGT posting decided to apply the miles (and co-pay) yesterday and this morning got the upgrade.

Still waiting for two of my GPUs to take for an IAD-LHR flight in July and a SFO-LHR flight in November, but 6 out of my 8 GPUs have taken this year. Feeling very fortunate.

Thrilled that my cheapie airfare and MUA came through. It seems to me we are back to upgrades of a few years ago.
The flight now shows P8 and PN3. What does that mean? Is R the only thing that means that upgrade space is available?

And I have no idea how everyone's quotes got in this post! Ha.

Thank you!
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 8:43 pm
  #2838  
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Originally Posted by daisyatl
The flight now shows P8 and PN3. What does that mean? Is R the only thing that means that upgrade space is available?
Your upgrade would clear into R.

But PN3 is a good sign, it means (at least in theory) that there are no waitlisted GS.

Booked 50/60. Your odds are looking up.
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 8:47 pm
  #2839  
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Originally Posted by daisyatl
The flight now shows P8 and PN3. What does that mean? Is R the only thing that means that upgrade space is available?

And I have no idea how everyone's quotes got in this post! Ha.

Thank you!
PN3 means (supposedly) that all GS instrument supported upgrades have cleared. The 'supposedly' caveat is that sometimes the system gets out of sync with itself, so it may have opened inventory without clearing upgrades.

But it is a good sign for your chances. R or RN (effectively the same, I think?) is the bucket you will clear into, and it tends to be opened a little while after PN.

(The quotes all showed up because of the 'multi-quote' button being selected.)
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 8:55 pm
  #2840  
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Originally Posted by fumje
R or RN (effectively the same, I think?) is the bucket you will clear into
R.

Originally Posted by fumje
it tends to be opened a little while after PN
I would say that PN going >0 is an indicator R may open. "tends" is a bit strong . . . plenty of flights go PN9 but stay R0.
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 9:05 pm
  #2841  
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Originally Posted by Kacee
R.



I would say that PN going >0 is an indicator R may open. "tends" is a bit strong . . . plenty of flights go PN9 but stay R0.
Actually I haven't seen PN0 to PN>0 occur without R0 to R>0 occurring soon after unless PN>0 goes back to PN0. But of course, 'tends' might suggest a stronger likelihood that PN stays >0 than I intended.

Also I don't see much PN9 R0 except on flights more than a month out. Just my observations, though.

Anyway, for the flight in question, I agree decent odds.
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Old Jun 9, 2018, 7:00 am
  #2842  
 
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I got upgraded! Very happy. Thank you all for the advice. It is only my second or third time paying for an upgrade and it seemed like an indulgence but seemed worth it. The flight is quite full. Also, I used a voucher I had for the actual ticket (that I got from VDB) so all in al I was out of pocket less than the normal flight cost. Plus I have over 500K award miles so using those is not such a big deal.
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Old Jun 10, 2018, 6:37 am
  #2843  
 
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Update on my DCA-PVG situation: Right before check-in time for my original DCA-SFO flight, I checked the statuses for my original SFO-PVG flight as well as EWR-PVG, ORD-PVG, and LAX-PVG. Only ORD and LAX showed more than two seats open in J... while United's site showed R4 for ORD-PVG and R1 for EWR-PVG, nothing yet on the others. Got on the 1K line and, after some back-and-forth involving the agent putting me on hold to call the rate desk, I'm now confirmed up front for the EWR flight.

I was willing to go with the ORD flight, but that's an sUA 777 and they only had seats in the center quad open. The one downside is that I'll have to wake up two hours earlier than originally planned tomorrow morning, but I'm pretty sure that a shower and a nap in the EWR Polaris Lounge will take the sting out of that.

Thanks for teaching me how to do this, FlyerTalk!
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Old Jun 10, 2018, 9:04 am
  #2844  
 
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Originally Posted by DCA writer
...I was willing to go with the ORD flight, but that's an sUA 777 and they only had seats in the center quad open. The one downside is that I'll have to wake up two hours earlier than originally planned tomorrow morning, but I'm pretty sure that a shower and a nap in the EWR Polaris Lounge will take the sting out of that.

Thanks for teaching me how to do this, FlyerTalk!
Congratulations DCAwriter. I think you may be able to make up some of the sleep from that early morning wake-up call with the flat seat. :-D (Based on my recent experience in the SFO Polaris lounge do not count on sleeping on the couch in the Quiet Suites in the EWR Polaris lounge unless you place the blanket on the floor.)

So agree with you about FT. I love how the community shares insights, tips and strategies. Recently I called in, for the first time, when R space opened up on an upcoming flight. Normally I wait for the UG to process but on the SFO-HKG leg that was too much of a gamble.
Also, learned through experience, and then FT confirmed (as did the 1K agent who had to fix my error), that SDC is best done over the phone.

Enjoy Polaris Business for that long flight!
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Old Jun 10, 2018, 10:29 am
  #2845  
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Originally Posted by DCA writer
Thanks for teaching me how to do this, FlyerTalk!
SDC into open R is possibly the coolest of all FT tricks.
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 8:19 am
  #2846  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
SDC into open R is possibly the coolest of all FT tricks.
For me it has to be SDC into PN when flying on a YBM fare...Probably the closest I'll get to feeling like a GS
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 8:28 am
  #2847  
 
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The lady and I are flying SFO-IAH-MSY on Tuesday, July 3rd; 19 days away

UA540, SFO-IAH, departing at 7:34 AM: .....ZN8, P7, PN7, R4, RN4, IN3, I3
Flight Status shows 5 of 16 booked

UA1131, IAH-MSY, departing at 3:20 PM: ....ZN9, P9, PN8, R6, RN6, IN4, I4
Flight Status shows 8 of 20 booked

Inventory has been looking better and better as we get closer to departure...but will it hold long enough for the CPU?

Alternatively, I have one RPU available (four GPU's are tied up on an SFO-EWR waitlist) that could be applied to her itinerary, and I could roll the dice. Or, I could pull one of my GPU's back and apply it to the SFO-IAH-MSY trip, along with the RPU I have. I'll cross the 75K PQM threshold before my SFO-EWR trip, so in theory I could apply one of those RPU's to that trip, I'd just drop to the back of the waitlist bus.
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 10:28 am
  #2848  
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Originally Posted by LRMErnst
The lady and I are flying SFO-IAH-MSY on Tuesday, July 3rd; 19 days away

UA540, SFO-IAH, departing at 7:34 AM: .....ZN8, P7, PN7, R4, RN4, IN3, I3
Flight Status shows 5 of 16 booked

UA1131, IAH-MSY, departing at 3:20 PM: ....ZN9, P9, PN8, R6, RN6, IN4, I4
Flight Status shows 8 of 20 booked

Inventory has been looking better and better as we get closer to departure...but will it hold long enough for the CPU?

Alternatively, I have one RPU available (four GPU's are tied up on an SFO-EWR waitlist) that could be applied to her itinerary, and I could roll the dice. Or, I could pull one of my GPU's back and apply it to the SFO-IAH-MSY trip, along with the RPU I have. I'll cross the 75K PQM threshold before my SFO-EWR trip, so in theory I could apply one of those RPU's to that trip, I'd just drop to the back of the waitlist bus.
Day before 4th and upgrade/award inventories show low business travel day (not many people are going to stuffing a travel trip into a work week with a mid-week holiday. I'd be optimistically hoping for a CPU instead of using certs.

I inventory will decrease before R - I'd just keep and eye on 'em.
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Old Jun 15, 2018, 10:12 am
  #2849  
 
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Any thoughts on GS GPU applied to non-GS W fare on UA927 on Saturday, June 30?
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Old Jun 15, 2018, 10:38 am
  #2850  
 
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Originally Posted by physioprof
Any thoughts on GS GPU applied to non-GS W fare on UA927 on Saturday, June 30?
Does not look too good as we cannot know if there are already GS waitlisted. Saturdays are not good days for upgrading.......And with Polaris Business sold 42/48 there's a possibility that some people may still purchase a ticket and the added danger that some passengers would take a TOD if offered. It's a long flight.
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