Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
This is an archive thread, the active thread is
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
May 23, 2018, 2:56 pm
#2746
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,461
I'm flying NRT-YYC this Sunday 27th. Current route is NRT-SFO-YYC. I'm a 1K
The NRT-DEN flight looks to be overbooked by 8 in Y currently (8 polaris seats blocked). When I checked inventory last night, there was one seat remaining in my fare bucket (L). I'm sure this will fluctuate a lot between now and the time of departure. Should I be same day changing into this flight? The odds are probably relatively low of 8 GS/1K's being ahead of me on a long weekend, but I want to be decently sure before I make the move over to a flight which is booked solid in Y. Will UA typically address this by bumping passengers into J, or trying to route them via a different hub?
I've had a similar situation before where I was upgraded, but on that occasion I was (luckily) already booked on the flight and didn't have to make a change. Not sure if I was just lucky on that occasion or whether it is standard practice.
The NRT-DEN flight looks to be overbooked by 8 in Y currently (8 polaris seats blocked). When I checked inventory last night, there was one seat remaining in my fare bucket (L). I'm sure this will fluctuate a lot between now and the time of departure. Should I be same day changing into this flight? The odds are probably relatively low of 8 GS/1K's being ahead of me on a long weekend, but I want to be decently sure before I make the move over to a flight which is booked solid in Y. Will UA typically address this by bumping passengers into J, or trying to route them via a different hub?
I've had a similar situation before where I was upgraded, but on that occasion I was (luckily) already booked on the flight and didn't have to make a change. Not sure if I was just lucky on that occasion or whether it is standard practice.
May 23, 2018, 2:59 pm
#2747
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,405
ETA that I agree with findark’s edit. :-)
PS: Don’t forget TODs. As long as there are still seats for sale in J, UA may offer TODs to passengers. They’re going to have to upgrade someone anyway, so they figure they may as well get some money for it...
Last edited by jsloan; May 23, 2018 at 3:02 pm Reason: TODs
May 24, 2018, 4:35 am
#2748
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 11
Checkin impact on chsnces?
Was curious, if applying a GPU on a flight that is relatively open in J (25 of 48 seats free) and Available fare classes show the following...Is the right strategy to check in right at T-24 to get the tie-breaker, should it come to that? Or is it smarter to hold off checking in just Incase R opens up T<24 (does that still happen, if so, often)?
or if you check in at T-24...but you see R open up...at T<24...can you call up UA and have them manually clear your upgrade even though you are checked in?
Im Premier Platinum this year. So guess odds aren’t great as I’ll be best out by all the GS and 1k’s
thx.
tifosi
or if you check in at T-24...but you see R open up...at T<24...can you call up UA and have them manually clear your upgrade even though you are checked in?
Im Premier Platinum this year. So guess odds aren’t great as I’ll be best out by all the GS and 1k’s
thx.
tifosi
- J9
- JN9
- C9
- D9
- Z0
- ZN0
- P0
- PN0
- R0
- RN0
- IN0
- I0
- Y9
- YN9
- B9
- M9
- E9
- U9
- H9
- HN9
- Q9
- V9
- W9
- S9
- T9
- L9
- K9
- G9
- N9
- XN9
- X9
May 24, 2018, 7:18 am
#2749
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Are you looking for an op-up? UA142 NRT-DEN on 27-May indeed looks to be over by 8 in Economy, with a light elite load. I agree it looks like a decent shot, but op-ups are never a sure thing and the flight could easily no longer be overbooked at departure.
To answer your other question, yes UA will resolve the oversale by offering op-ups to J instead of denying boarding. jsloan is right in that they might try to offer other routings, but most of it will be done by op-up.
If you are just looking for a regular upgrade, the flight is J6 R4 IN3 I0.
To answer your other question, yes UA will resolve the oversale by offering op-ups to J instead of denying boarding. jsloan is right in that they might try to offer other routings, but most of it will be done by op-up.
If you are just looking for a regular upgrade, the flight is J6 R4 IN3 I0.
May 24, 2018, 4:01 pm
#2750
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,453
Was curious, if applying a GPU on a flight that is relatively open in J (25 of 48 seats free) and Available fare classes show the following...Is the right strategy to check in right at T-24 to get the tie-breaker, should it come to that? Or is it smarter to hold off checking in just Incase R opens up T<24 (does that still happen, if so, often)?
May 24, 2018, 8:38 pm
#2751
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 11
many thanks. Btw, are there still reported issues with R-opening T<24 and not processing automatically? Or has UA more or less fixed this these days?
May 24, 2018, 8:54 pm
#2752
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,412
No, that issue has not been fixed. It probably still pays to watch inventory, although it's a minority of the time that you can spot the R space.
May 24, 2018, 9:45 pm
#2753
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,453
May 29, 2018, 2:02 pm
#2754
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,412
I'm not likely to roll the dice, but any thoughts on 01-Nov UA917 SFO-AKL? Booked 12/60 right now and J9 PN9 R0. I suspect the block rules don't allow R on a Thursday flight, but I know there are rumors of waitlisted GPUs triggering clearance, and curious if anyone has opinions. The double-daily 77W seems like a little much lift for the market.
May 30, 2018, 2:06 pm
#2755
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Chicago
Programs: United MileagePlus, Hyatt Platinum
Posts: 148
How likely is a cash + miles upgrade request likely to clear on ORD to AMS?
I booked a nonstop round trip from ORD to AMS a couple of weeks from now. I booked a cash plus miles upgrade, but it has not cleared for either flight. How likely are these to clear? And when should I expect to find out?
In the future, is there anything I can do to increase my chances of these clearing?
In the future, is there anything I can do to increase my chances of these clearing?
May 30, 2018, 2:45 pm
#2756
Join Date: Jul 2011
Programs: AA Plat, UA 1K>Plat>moving to Silver
Posts: 2,090
Not possible to predict, though you can monitor how many seats in business class remain available on expertflyer and the more open the better the more likely some R space for upgrades may appear in the days before or day of the flight. However, this is why I do not waitlist any more. I look for R space at the time of booking, even if I have to do connections (for example, you might find upgrade space to or from BRU, which is a short and fast train ride from AMS). (Also, you can look for cheap buy up offers all the way to boarding time - this is one reason why business may fill up and upgrades not clear.)
May 30, 2018, 3:13 pm
#2757
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,618
I booked a nonstop round trip from ORD to AMS a couple of weeks from now. I booked a cash plus miles upgrade, but it has not cleared for either flight. How likely are these to clear? And when should I expect to find out?
In the future, is there anything I can do to increase my chances of these clearing?
In the future, is there anything I can do to increase my chances of these clearing?
May 30, 2018, 8:32 pm
#2758
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
I booked a nonstop round trip from ORD to AMS a couple of weeks from now. I booked a cash plus miles upgrade, but it has not cleared for either flight. How likely are these to clear? And when should I expect to find out?
In the future, is there anything I can do to increase my chances of these clearing?
In the future, is there anything I can do to increase my chances of these clearing?
As Nomad420 said, midweek flights get better chances of upgrades. Also booking flights with the least number of Polaris Business seats sold. I had an experience like that. When I was looking to buy a ticket to MUC, I planned to return on a Wednesday. I checked and there were only 12 seats sold out of 40. The next morning, I booked my flights. In the evening, I checked the load again. It had suddenly jumped to 29/40 (reason? I don't know). Since I was still in the 24 hours grace period, I switched my return flight to Tuesday that had 15/40 sold. My miles + copay cleared a month later. My original flight was booked full ten days before the flight. I would never have cleared.
Also on expert mode, check the fares. It's good if you see PN9 or a high PN. If you see PN=0, it's not so good as there may be GS waitlisted for upgrades. Even, PN=1 may mean that a GS with a reservation for two persons may be waitlisted.
May 31, 2018, 11:59 pm
#2759
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: SEA/NYC/IAD
Programs: UA 1K, Marriott Titanium, Hyatt Explorist
Posts: 1,921
Typically speaking, does anyone know how difficult it might be to CPU UA1499 (SEA-IAD redeye)?
Is the route crowded out by GS/1K, or is it fairly likely for plat/gold to clear?
Is the route crowded out by GS/1K, or is it fairly likely for plat/gold to clear?
Jun 1, 2018, 12:29 am
#2760
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,405
TODs are very attractive to tired people checking in for redeye flights...