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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Mar 6, 2018, 7:58 am
  #2371  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: ORD
Programs: 1K
Posts: 121
I've read that it's pretty difficult to upgrade from EZE to IAH, but I'm holding my breath, 1K flying Saturday 3/31 EZE-IAH on V fare with GPU applied at purchase 1/22. Seat map shows 18/50 which I know isn't entirely accurate.. Are there a lot of close-in bookings?

Fare classes are: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, PN0, which looks promising, however I've heard horror stories with GPU's out of EZE. I paid to be upfront on the way down but couldn't justify the $$ on the way back.
What's interesting is I've had two separate 1K agents call me to give an update essentially saying my upgrade hasn't cleared, but they "hope" that it does, never experienced this before.
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Old Mar 6, 2018, 8:19 am
  #2372  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Originally Posted by SkiPremier
I've read that it's pretty difficult to upgrade from EZE to IAH, but I'm holding my breath, 1K flying Saturday 3/31 EZE-IAH on V fare with GPU applied at purchase 1/22. Seat map shows 18/50 which I know isn't entirely accurate.. Are there a lot of close-in bookings?

Fare classes are: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, PN0, which looks promising, however I've heard horror stories with GPU's out of EZE. I paid to be upfront on the way down but couldn't justify the $$ on the way back.
What's interesting is I've had two separate 1K agents call me to give an update essentially saying my upgrade hasn't cleared, but they "hope" that it does, never experienced this before.
They will probably end up selling a bunch of $600 OLCI buy-ups... that's probably why they haven't opened up PN/R yet. This seems to be the new norm.
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Old Mar 6, 2018, 8:59 am
  #2373  
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Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,453
Originally Posted by SkiPremier
Seat map shows 18/50 which I know isn't entirely accurate.. Are there a lot of close-in bookings?
In this case, it is accurate. Booked 18/50. Less than four weeks out, a decent chance you will clear.
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Old Mar 6, 2018, 9:27 am
  #2374  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Programs: UA 1K, Marriot Platinum, LH FTl, Hertz PC
Posts: 28
Chance of GPU clearing on FRA-SFO route

I'm a 1K, flying from Frankfurt to San Francisco on March 17th (Friday), returning on the same route on March 23th (Saturday). My travel agency booked me on E+ with an M (FRA-SFO) and U (SFO-FRA) fare. This is my first flight with UA as a 1K, spent many smiles at my 1K/GS peers talking about the GPU graveyard SFO. Can anyone tell wether there is a slight chance to wake up in Polaris on any of these two flights ? I think I see too many 0's ...
My next chance of getting rid of these nasty GPUs is a flight from LHR to LAX on July 13th with a W fare, any opinion about that one ?

FRA-SFO:
  • J0
  • JN0
  • C0
  • D0
  • Z0
  • ZN0
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
  • Y9
  • YN9
  • B9
  • M8
  • E0
  • U0
  • H0
  • HN0
  • Q0
  • V0
  • W0
  • S0
  • T0
  • L0
  • K0
  • G0
  • N9
  • XN0
  • X0
SFO-FRA:
  • J7
  • JN7
  • C0
  • D0
  • Z0
  • ZN0
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
  • Y9
  • YN9
  • B9
  • M9
  • E9
  • U9
  • H2
  • HN2
  • Q0
  • V0
  • W0
  • S0
  • T0
  • L0
  • K0
  • G0
  • N9
  • XN0
  • X0

Last edited by djtn; Mar 6, 2018 at 9:39 am
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Old Mar 6, 2018, 9:46 am
  #2375  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
Originally Posted by djtn
I'm a 1K, flying from Frankfurt to San Francisco on March 17th (Friday), returning on the same route on March 23th (Saturday). My travel agency booked me on E+ with an M (FRA-SFO) and U (SFO-FRA) fare. This is my first flight with UA as a 1K, spent many smiles at my 1K/GS peers talking about the GPU graveyard SFO. Can anyone tell wether there is a slight chance to wake up in Polaris on any of these two flights ? I think I see too many 0's ...
My next chance of getting rid of these nasty GPUs is a flight from LHR to LAX on July 13th with a W fare, any opinion about that one ?

FRA-SFO:
  • J0
  • JN0
  • C0
  • D0
  • Z0
  • ZN0
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
  • Y9
  • YN9
  • B9
  • M8
  • E0
  • U0
  • H0
  • HN0
  • Q0
  • V0
  • W0
  • S0
  • T0
  • L0
  • K0
  • G0
  • N9
  • XN0
  • X0
SFO-FRA:
  • J7
  • JN7
  • C0
  • D0
  • Z0
  • ZN0
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
  • Y9
  • YN9
  • B9
  • M9
  • E9
  • U9
  • H2
  • HN2
  • Q0
  • V0
  • W0
  • S0
  • T0
  • L0
  • K0
  • G0
  • N9
  • XN0
  • X0

March 17 is a Saturday. Flight 59, Polaris Business is booked 58/60. I would say it's not good.

March 23 is a Friday. Flight 58, Polaris Business is booked 48/60. Better chances for this flight although with two weeks to go there may be more sold.

Usually it's easier to upgrade those flights in midweek than on the weekends.

Last edited by StuckinITH; Mar 6, 2018 at 9:52 am
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Old Mar 6, 2018, 10:24 am
  #2376  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 41
Originally Posted by SkiPremier
I've read that it's pretty difficult to upgrade from EZE to IAH, but I'm holding my breath, 1K flying Saturday 3/31 EZE-IAH on V fare with GPU applied at purchase 1/22. Seat map shows 18/50 which I know isn't entirely accurate.. Are there a lot of close-in bookings?
Seat map isn't accurate because some booked passengers don't have seat assignments. A better way to check the load is to look at the United Flight Status tool https://www.cablepick.net/united
If you click on the Upgrade Standby list, it will tell you the number of seats that are booked in Business and/or First.

Originally Posted by jsloan
Assuming those numbers are accurate, it looks like they're willing to oversell business by at least 5. In the recent past, UA has actually opened up R space in this scenario, allowing a passenger to upgrade into the full cabin with the knowledge that someone else will be bumped to First. However, there is no specific policy on this, and it's entirely possible that the flight will go out with you in Y and empty seats (or non-revs) in F.
I suspect the first scenario is more likely if Coach is full (or nearly full) and they want to open up Coach seats by upgrading some into Business. However there is lots of Coach availability on my flight, which means that the second possibility is more likely - I'll be in Coach with empty seats in F.
(Ironically my husband is on the same flight, with a P fare. Would be lovely if they upgraded him to First and gave me his Business seat. But that's a pipe dream...)

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Mar 6, 2018 at 4:21 pm Reason: merging consecutive posts by same member
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Old Mar 6, 2018, 10:29 am
  #2377  
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,400
Originally Posted by optimom
I suspect the first scenario is more likely if Coach is full (or nearly full) and they want to open up Coach seats by upgrading some into Business. However there is lots of Coach availability on my flight, which means that the second possibility is more likely - I'll be in Coach with empty seats in F.
(Ironically my husband is on the same flight, with a P fare. Would be lovely if they upgraded him to First and gave me his Business seat. But that's a pipe dream...)
You may be right -- i don't recall the Y loads on the flights where I saw this behavior. I just remember being pleasantly surprised to see R space into an oversold J cabin.
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Old Mar 6, 2018, 10:49 am
  #2378  
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Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,453
Originally Posted by jsloan
I just remember being pleasantly surprised to see R space into an oversold J cabin.
I've seen it quite a few times. It's either an express intent to induce the sale of more expensive economy tix (either W fares or miles plus copay), or some sort of error in UA's algorithm.
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Old Mar 6, 2018, 12:45 pm
  #2379  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
Originally Posted by optimom

With First at 2/8, is it likely that some Business passengers will upgrade, opening up some Business seats?
Your plane map looks like a 772. With First at 2/8, my past experience has been that they reserve two seats in First for the pilots and they will open 6B in Business for a passenger.
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Old Mar 7, 2018, 7:56 am
  #2380  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: ORD
Programs: 1K
Posts: 121
Originally Posted by Kacee
In this case, it is accurate. Booked 18/50. Less than four weeks out, a decent chance you will clear.
Coincidentally, I woke up this morning with an email from United, upgrade cleared! Thanks all.
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Old Mar 7, 2018, 10:17 am
  #2381  
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 25
Newbie question here, I have a PS flight that is ~3 months out and there is an attractive buy up to business offer, using only cash. Will I receive PQD's for the upgrade cost? Also will I receive 2x PQM's for being in business on that leg? Thanks!
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Old Mar 7, 2018, 12:50 pm
  #2382  
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Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,410
Presuming that you are already ticketed, and this offer is via "Manage Reservations", then yes and yes (if on SFO/LAX-EWR it should probably be equal to the difference between your cost basis and ~$659).
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Old Mar 7, 2018, 4:49 pm
  #2383  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Programs: UA 1K 1MM, AA Gold, Marriott Titanium, Hilton Diamond, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 695
Anyone have any insight for chances of a regional clearing UA1916 a redeye SAN-IAD flight on a Friday, 4/20 for someone without status? Inventory looks like : F9A9JN9C9D9Z8ZN8P8PN0R0RN0IN0I0

Haven't had to do this flight in a long time but I remember clearing it as a 1k CPU on an award ticket a couple years back.
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Old Mar 8, 2018, 12:49 pm
  #2384  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 630
UA 542 IAD-DEN 3/18 (Sunday) as 1K
F9A9JN9C9D9Z7ZN7P7PN0R0RN0IN0I0Y9YN9B9M9E9U9H9HN9Q9V9W8S5T2L0K0G0N9XN0X0
United FirstŪ: 20 Booked: 8

Should I apply an RPU?
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Old Mar 8, 2018, 7:01 pm
  #2385  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: San Francisco, CA (SFO)
Programs: UA 1K, UA .53 MM, Marriott Gold, Nexus, GE, TSA Pre, Hertz PC
Posts: 581
My companion and I have a round trip from SFO to New Orleans this summer and I've got two (2) RPU's to apply. Assuming I only have the two RPU's, and I'm not willing to pay more to buy-up to First, what strategy would you take to upgrade both pax on the outbound and the return? Do RPU's ever clear on SFO-IAH routes...let alone an A320?

Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018
SFO-IAH-MSY (L)
UA540, depart 7:50 AM (A320), UA1131, depart 2:50 PM (737-900)
F9 A3 JN9 C9 D3 Z1 ZN1 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Sunday, July 8th, 2018
MSY-SFO (L)
UA2080, depart 6:28 AM (A320)
F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z5 ZN5 P4 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN0 Q9 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0
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