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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Apr 3, 2017, 3:07 pm
  #1036  
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1K here that used 20k miles to upgrade from a T fare on the evening MCO-LAX flight on a Monday....Chance on the upgrade clearing???
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 3:17 pm
  #1037  
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Originally Posted by jjmoore
Even with 10+ open seats, I would expect buy-ups to clean up those open seats on DoD. If you're interested, I would shell out the $ or place all bets on sitting in Y. Personally, I would pay up to sit in the new Polaris seat... and I'm sure there are others that feel similarly.
I often take buy-ups at booking, but it wasn't offered in this case (it was on my return, however). We'll see what happens at check-in.

Originally Posted by Kacee
This is totally normal for ps these days.
Good to know! Most of my transcons this past year have been to DC or BOS, so I've been a bit out of the loop.

Originally Posted by sfo789
I would expect maybe 5-10 more seats to sell, then a bunch of people to clear en masse at T-22 until the flight gets to ~J5. Perhaps one or two more people will then clear at the gate. If you're on a decent fare you stand a solid shot. Good luck!
Cool, thanks for the excellent walk-through. We'll see if I get offered a buy-up on check-in, too.
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 5:38 pm
  #1038  
 
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Originally Posted by sanfran8080
1K here that used 20k miles to upgrade from a T fare on the evening MCO-LAX flight on a Monday....Chance on the upgrade clearing???
There's a thread specifically about chances of upgrading. This appears to be a 1x daily flight...I would venture to guess that chances are relatively low. I haven't flown this route, though, and there are undoubtedly a lot of kettles on board.

If you tell us what day, we can get you a more specific idea based on how many people have booked...
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 6:21 pm
  #1039  
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The day is 8/21
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 6:55 pm
  #1040  
 
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Originally Posted by sanfran8080
The day is 8/21
0/20 showing booked. TBH, the buyup to F is $249...I would rather spend the cash to upfare from T to P than spend 20k miles.
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 7:02 pm
  #1041  
 
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
Anyone have experience getting upgraded from Business to First on LHR-EWR? All the F buckets are zeroed out, but the seat map is open (save for crew rest seat). I applied the 20k upgrade for kicks, but wonder how realistic that it will clear...
Got home and did check that shows Polaris First is booked 0/6, but yet the website shows they are not selling any international F fare buckets, even though the flight is later this month. Perhaps I'll get lucky? Surprise/delighted?...
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 7:07 pm
  #1042  
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
Surprise/delighted?...
More likely swap to 2 class aircraft.
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 7:14 pm
  #1043  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
More likely swap to 2 class aircraft.
Really? Even on a flight that is less than 4 weeks out? I generally thought schedules were pretty locked in at this point. Closest I've generally seen plane swaps not due to IRROPs was around the 2-month mark.

Is it possible it's a tech bug due to delayed retrofitting of aircraft with Polaris seats, then?...
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 7:38 pm
  #1044  
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
Really? Even on a flight that is less than 4 weeks out? I generally thought schedules were pretty locked in at this point. Closest I've generally seen plane swaps not due to IRROPs was around the 2-month mark.
F zeroed for sale would indicate a potential swap.

Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
Is it possible it's a tech bug due to delayed retrofitting of aircraft with Polaris seats, then?...
No.
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 7:45 pm
  #1045  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
F zeroed for sale would indicate a potential swap.
Will be interesting to see what happens, then, as there are 4 3-class 763s scheduled on LHR-EWR the same day, all with F zeroed out and all 0/6 booked. That's a lot of potential swapping.
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 8:45 pm
  #1046  
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
Got home and did check that shows Polaris First is booked 0/6, but yet the website shows they are not selling any international F fare buckets, even though the flight is later this month. Perhaps I'll get lucky? Surprise/delighted?...
Originally Posted by Kacee
More likely swap to 2 class aircraft.
They've stopped selling F on EWR-LHR.. I remember looking into this late last year. They definitely switch between 763 configs but the 3-class ones fly and I recall not being able to figure out who sits in F, or whether it's just NRSAs (even when there was a GS GPU on the waitlist).
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Old Apr 4, 2017, 12:15 am
  #1047  
 
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Originally Posted by findark
They've stopped selling F on EWR-LHR.. I remember looking into this late last year. They definitely switch between 763 configs but the 3-class ones fly and I recall not being able to figure out who sits in F, or whether it's just NRSAs (even when there was a GS GPU on the waitlist).
Last time I spoke to a GA at LHR, they claimed was treated like an a/c swap every time -- op-ups by status/FC from J to F until J isn't overbooked, then NRSA clear into open F and J thereafter. But if there are enough J seats to go round for paying J customers, no op-ups and NRSA get F to themselves. This was a few weeks ago though, so take with a pinch of salt.
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Old Apr 4, 2017, 10:44 pm
  #1048  
 
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Looking for thoughts on a RT flight to FRA later this month which I would like to upgrade with GPUs.

Outbound date is Friday the 21st, return the 28th. Here is my quick summary of the open seats when looking at the seat map for the UA flights to/from FRA. Curious which you is the best option. I will most likely be buying a W class fare (cheapest available).

21st (seats open/total seats):
IAH: 17/36
ORD 230p: 11/40
ORD 6p: 16/40
IAD 5p: 17/40
IAD 10p: 20/40
EWR: 14/40
SFO 2p: 11/52
SFO 7p: 10/52

Return 28th:
IAH: 8/36 (C5 on fare codes)
ORD 8a: 12/40
ORD 12p: 12/40
IAD 12p: 14/40
IAD 5p: 12/40
EWR: 12/40
SFO 2p: 5/52
SFO 5p: 10/52

Not even sure what to take outbound. Thinking IAH has a shot but my last two misses to germany were IAH-FRA when it was 777/767s and not a 787. How is the 787 is Y? I'm not even sure I can get a decent connection to the late IAD flight so I don't think that is a decent option. I guess I'm just looking for thoughts... The last ORD flight?

On the return I'm thinking the noon flight to IAD or the EWR flight. They are the shortest flights but the connections to LAS look wide open, esp. for a cert upgrade. At least I would get the 5 hours upgraded from the EC to Vegas... Any thoughts there?

Thanks in advance.
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Old Apr 4, 2017, 11:29 pm
  #1049  
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Originally Posted by trekwars2000
Here is my quick summary of the open seats when looking at the seat map for the UA flights to/from FRA. Curious which you is the best option. I will most likely be buying a W class fare (cheapest available).
Suggest you use this tool rather than counting seats: cablepick.net

Beyond that, you really have to look at fare bucket availability. If there were any flight with P/PN, that would be your best bet, but there isn't. UA989, booked 23/40 (not 20), is Z9P0. That may be your best shot.

That said, I think you're going to see the cabins fill over the next two weeks, and I wouldn't feel particularly confident waitlisting any of those flights. The returns are looking even tougher.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 7:33 am
  #1050  
 
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Interesting data point to share. Last night DEN-LAX, 777 V5 28 BF seats - only 13 seats were booked/cleared at 60 minutes prior to departure. I presume they are holding back as many as possible to upsell.
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