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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Dec 28, 2019, 7:22 pm
  #5086  
Aav
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by whipwhitaker
Do some of the folks that are ahead of you on the J-list already have seat assignments on the O-list? And does your name show up on the O-list (and if so, with a seat assignment)?
No, no one on either list has a seat assignment. My name does NOT show up on the O list, which makes it interesting to me — all else equal, why would other confirmed O/A 1K/GS ahead of me on the J list show up on the O list but not me? Makes me think they are all paid Y and would be ahead of me if this wasn’t a PP route. Which means they’ll skip them and clear me into J first, if paid PP does in fact trump status.
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Old Dec 28, 2019, 8:11 pm
  #5087  
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Originally Posted by Aav
So given there are 20 others booked into PP, am I to assume there are 13 GS/1K booked into O or A fares And therefore higher than me? That’s hard to believe but could just be the case.

I’m not sure what that Y->O list is though because people ahead of me on the J list are also on that O list but I am not. But I think what you’re saying is that the O list means nothing?
There is no way you are 14th. That list is TOTALLY WRONG. I have seen random numbers clearing like 4,7,16,19 out of 22 names.
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Old Dec 28, 2019, 8:14 pm
  #5088  
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Originally Posted by united 1k flyer
There is no way you are 14th. That list is TOTALLY WRONG. I have seen random numbers clearing like 4,7,16,19 out of 22 names.
that’s promising. Thank you!
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Old Dec 28, 2019, 11:03 pm
  #5089  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 3,378
Originally Posted by Aav
that’s promising. Thank you!
The first 8 are using gs instruments and will clear before you (unless there's some hiccup with them clearing into premiumEconomy and messing up their J clearance ranking)

The next ones are 1K booking into O
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Old Dec 28, 2019, 11:10 pm
  #5090  
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Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by paperwastage
The first 8 are using gs instruments and will clear before you

The next ones are 1K booking into O
So this is conflicting info relative to previous posts too. The website says that premier status* comes before fare of class, but the asterisk states that passengers paid in premium plus clear first for those routes, then the order is reassessed for the Y passengers. I interpreted that as the following priority order for J:

1. O ticket with a GS instrument
2. O ticket with a 1K instrument (me)
3. Y ticket with a GS instrument (most people “ahead” of me on the standby list).
4. Y ticket with a 1K instrument (people already “below” me on the standby list).

Hoping I’m right but if anyone has experience or documentation that says otherwise I’d be very interested.
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Old Dec 28, 2019, 11:46 pm
  #5091  
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Join Date: Jun 2007
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Originally Posted by Aav
... The website says that premier status* comes before fare of class, but the asterisk states that passengers paid in premium plus clear first for those routes, then the order is reassessed for the Y passengers. ...
There is essentially no mention of GS on the website and the rules for GS are not published publicly.

GS clear into PN, 1Ks into PZ. PN is always > PZ. The posted rules do not apply to GS.
A GS in economy will clear into PN while a 1K in PP is waiting for PZ -- which will generally be PZ0 if GS are waitlisted.
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Old Dec 28, 2019, 11:48 pm
  #5092  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 3,378
Gs is special and clears into a different bucket PN

Do note that the upgrade list ordering and clearing is messed up ever since this extended list.

All I can confirm is that the first 8 are going to clear into PN. Even with that, there are scenarios where one jumps ahead (PN/PZ= 1 , jump over a family wait-list together etc)

You should be aheadjust behind the 1k @O. List is semi broken, I haven't had time to inspect what happens at t-24hr yet

Last edited by paperwastage; Dec 30, 2019 at 12:16 pm
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Old Dec 29, 2019, 6:34 am
  #5093  
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: MFE
Programs: United 1K; Marriott Bonvoy Gold, Hilton Honors Silver
Posts: 83
So I'm flying on UA7 to Narita today, got to the UC and was told that the flight is oversold by 13, and Polaris is wide open. My questions are:

About what time should I go to the gate to check with the GA? Flight boards at 9:10, but right now IAH is on a ground stop due to lightning. What's the probability I get op-up to Polaris?

or

How much should I settle for getting bumped? Right now they're offering $300 and 50k miles, which prompted lengthy laughter from the UC agent and I. Final destination is PEK.
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Old Dec 29, 2019, 6:39 am
  #5094  
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Originally Posted by crfgon
About what time should I go to the gate to check with the GA? Flight boards at 9:10, but right now IAH is on a ground stop due to lightning. What's the probability I get op-up to Polaris?
If you’re looking for an op-up, there’s no need to hurry to the gate; the agent is supposed to process op-ups in order whether you’re there or not. And, I doubt that they’d start processing op-ups very far in advance, because they won’t really be sure they need the seats until / unless they actually have too many people trying to board.

They won’t be bumping anybody, so whatever offer you’re seeing is meaningless. They have 14 seats blocked in Polaris for possible op-ups, and there are 15 available beyond that.
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Old Dec 29, 2019, 6:42 am
  #5095  
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Posts: 32,026
Originally Posted by crfgon
So I'm flying on UA7 to Narita today, got to the UC and was told that the flight is oversold by 13, and Polaris is wide open. My questions are:

About what time should I go to the gate to check with the GA? Flight boards at 9:10, but right now IAH is on a ground stop due to lightning. What's the probability I get op-up to Polaris?

or

How much should I settle for getting bumped? Right now they're offering $300 and 50k miles, which prompted lengthy laughter from the UC agent and I. Final destination is PEK.
100% chance your UG will clear with an instrument ...

1K hoping for a OPUP is not too bad I guess, but 13 oversell can quickly go to near zero with misconnects.
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Old Dec 29, 2019, 6:48 am
  #5096  
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: MFE
Programs: United 1K; Marriott Bonvoy Gold, Hilton Honors Silver
Posts: 83
Thank y'all for the reality check. Wishful thinking on my last trip of the year haha.
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Old Dec 29, 2019, 6:57 am
  #5097  
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 5
Originally Posted by crfgon
Thank y'all for the reality check. Wishful thinking on my last trip of the year haha.
Are they actually seriously soliciting for VDBs? As other people said above, there is enough space to OpUp for all of the overbooked Y
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Old Dec 29, 2019, 7:09 am
  #5098  
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: MFE
Programs: United 1K; Marriott Bonvoy Gold, Hilton Honors Silver
Posts: 83
Originally Posted by cdino72
Are they actually seriously soliciting for VDBs? As other people said above, there is enough space to OpUp for all of the overbooked Y
In the system perhaps, but in reality probably not. I'll head out to the gate soon to find out.

OPUP cleared to Narita; now sitting in Polaris Lounge Dining Room.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Dec 29, 2019 at 10:26 am Reason: merged update / consecutive posts by same member
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Old Dec 29, 2019, 9:31 am
  #5099  
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Originally Posted by paperwastage
Gs is special and clears into a different bucket PN

Do note that the upgrade list ordering and clearing is messed up ever since this extended list.

All I can confirm is that the first 8 are going to clear into PN. Even with that, there are scenarios where one jumps ahead (PN/PZ= 1 , jump over a family wait-list together etc)

You should be ahead of the 1k @O. List is semi broken, I haven't had time to inspect what happens at t-24hr yet
How do you know that?
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Old Dec 29, 2019, 2:22 pm
  #5100  
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Programs: united
Posts: 2
any chance of an upgrade? Ewr to nrt in Feb

the ticket was an k fare mid feb ewr to Nrt -i have no status -i used points plus $600 to upgrade my seat to business class in both dicections . im now on waitlist . the cost of my ticket was $637 round trip with a second leg into to bkk .but I put in just for ewr to nrt leg -what do you think my chances are ? as a fall back i also have the prem plus waitlisted as well
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