lpro1111

Hi - just bumping this up looking for opinions. Currently 5 seats gone (out of 50 or so) on each flight, outbound and return.
Want to know if this is a pipe dream or upgrades on this route, this time of year have a good chance of clearing.
Thanks in advance...

jjmoore

Simply too far out to make a good judgement. It is a Saturday flight, and during prime travel season in the US which will make it likely more difficult.... very difficult to predict how this will turn out at this moment. At least you are far ahead of the game here... other 1K's that book and apply GPU's on W fares will be behind you in line, so that's a plus. Check back around June... that's when the picture will be more resolute.

kit125

What do you think are my chances to clear? Flight is about a month out. I'm 1K on W fare.

jsloan

You want to search MEL-LAX separately from LAX-CLE in order to get an idea of what the load is on that flight specifically. What you're seeing right now is the married MEL-LAX-CLE inventory, which is why all of the buckets that exist on both fights align.

kit125

Thanks for the tip!

kit125

Here's what MEL-LAX looks like

jsloan

That's not a particularly encouraging sign. UA appears to think that they can sell these seats at, or near, full price. They're not offering any deep discount inventory (P), nor are they offering any upgrade inventory for Global Service members (PN). So, you could be behind any number of passengers on Global Service upgrades right now.

The advance flight status tool at http://cablepick.net/united can give you a way to see the current load in business class. One month out, I'd be hoping for a cabin less than half full.

saltydog75

Hello all,

I would appreciate some input on what I should do with an upcoming IAD-> MMH RT 2/24 to 2/27. I've applied a MPU on the outbound flight (via SFO) and a MPU + $200 copay on the inbound flight since it has a premium transcontinental segment (SFO->EWR). The SFO->MMH and MMH->SFO legs have already cleared. I'm MP Gold.

For the outbound IAD->SFO flight on 2/24:

Available fare classes:F4 A3 JN4 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0I0Y9YN9B9M9E6U5H5HN1Q4V4W3S1T0L0K0G0N9XN0X0

4 seats are shown as available. I *think* my best bet is to wait until tomorrow and, if the IAD->SFO leg hasn't cleared, pull back the MPU and hope for a CPU (eligible 8:40AM Thurs, I believe). Doesn't seem like a good idea to leave the MPU there when I become CPU eligible. Is this the right thinking, or does the MPU get me ahead of others and is thus advantageous even when I get into the 48H timeframe when I become CPU-eligible? Any chance of an upgrade via one of these methods?

For the inbound SFO->EWR flight on 2/27 (redeye):

Available fare classes:J0 JN0 C0 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9YN9B9M9E9U9H9HN1Q6V4W3S1T0L0K0G0N9XN0X0

This one I'm unsure of. I see one F seat as available when I go into change seats, but they're not making it available to sell. What do I make of that? There are other overnight flights without premium legs (e.g. going MMH->SFO->LAX->IAD or MMH->SFO->SAN->IAD) with plenty of empty seats - in fact, the one going thru SAN already has RN space open. Is there any sense in waiting for that last F seat to potentially become available? My sense is that I might as well wait until T24H when SDC becomes available and if the upgrade hasn't cleared, pull it back (thus getting the 20k miles + $200 back) and then SDC into an alternate flight that has R/RN space available (crossing fingers) to get a CPU. Am I on the right trail?

Thanks for any help and my apologies if I've missed something important.

fumje

I would definitely pull your MUA (or 'MPU' as you say, which I think makes more sense) on the return. There appears to be no chance you'll clear SFO-EWR, and it would feel like quite a waste $200 to just get MMH-SFO. I would probably pull the MUA on the outbound, as the IAD-SFO looks like long odds as well, but perhaps you want to wait until T-24 to see the gate waitlist. I don't think you have any chance of CPU on the long flights, but your odds might be OK for the short ones (no experience with MMH).

As for the SDC strategy, it's worth taking a look at inventory when you're within the SDC window, but be aware that you can't transfer a waitlisted upgrade request, so you do have to find open R to get any benefit from changing.

edit: hope I'm not the bearer of bad news! If you're new to the upgrade game, it's kind of tough.

kit125

Thanks!

Any idea if MEL is a heavy non-rev route?

jsloan

The most likely cause is that somebody hasn't selected a seat.

jjmoore

P.S. and TCON flights are very very tough to clear upgrades. Even while I was GS during the last couple years, those upgrades often came down to right before boarding, and often times I was the only one that cleared. As a 1K, it's going to be very tough unless flying on a Wednesday early morning. Red-eye is even harder as most of us would put in extra to get upgraded on an overnight flight. Good luck with that one, but don't hold your breath too long for these kinds of upgrades.. they are very tough.

sanfran8080

4/21 TPA-SFO (Used 20k points to upgrade
4/25 SEA-IAD(Noon flight(Used 20k points to upgrade)
1K status.....thoughts on upgrade?

justsawaufo

T-15 now, 10/12 booked, 2 upgrades cleared, I think 1 is SDC.
Currently #1 on the list... worst case I have a middle seat blocked between me and the mrs in E+

Asaq

SFO - HNL March 2nd. UA 1175

• Available fare classes:
• F9
• A9
• JN9
• C9
• D9
• Z9
• ZN9
• P9
• PN0
• R0
• RN0
• IN0
• I0
• Y9
• YN9
• B9
• M9
• E9
• U9
• H9
• HN9
• Q9
• V9
• W9
• S9
• T9
• L9
• K9
• G0
• N9
• XN9
• X0

I am a platinum member, used an RPU to attempt an upgrade. Im on a T - Economy discount ticket. What are my chances?

Thanks!