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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 16, 18, 3:08 pm
  #2281  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K, DL, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 8,188
Originally Posted by TheBigVig View Post
LIH-LAX: F2 A2 JN2 C2 D2 Z2 ZN2 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN0 Q9 V9 W9 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0
LAX-IAD: (looks to be identical)

- Anything we can do to increase odds of getting the upgrade? Check-in at the 24 hour mark?
- If we get upgraded on one leg but not the other, it looks like we get charged the entire miles+copay amount?
- Upgrading to E+ for the inbound flights is about $300 per person. That's B.S. and we're not paying it. But is there a chance that it will be less expensive at the airport day of flight?
Hi TheBigVig, welcome to FlyerTalk!

When searching inventory with the intent of understanding flight loads, you generally need to do each segment individually. Searching them together only shows what UA is willing to sell on a through fare LIH-IAD. For these flights, I see:

03MAR18 LIHLAX UA456 : F2 Z1 P0
03MAR18 LAXIAD UA584 : F7 A4 C5 D3 Z2 P1 PN0


Unfortunately, I have a lot of bad news. Your odds of getting upgraded on LIH-LAX are basically zero with two seats left and 15 days to go. The LAX-IAD redeye is not a whole lot better, but I think it's at least more like 15% to clear. The only thing to do to increase your odds of sitting up front is to buy F. Note that if you keep the upgrade waitlist applied, your PNR will split when you check in and you may be separated if one of you clears and the other does not. If any upgrades are the top priority, check in immediately at T-24 but still don't hold your breath.

Yes, if you clear one leg and not the other the entire miles+copay is consumed. Economy Plus is not likely to significantly decrease in price; however, you will see a buyup in the neighborhood of $309 (LIH-LAX) and $249 (LAX-IAD) if any seats remain in the premium cabin on those flights at check-in.


Honestly, this just sounds like an absolutely miserable trip - hope you're at least getting something out of it!
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Old Feb 16, 18, 3:31 pm
  #2282  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: LIH
Posts: 8
Originally Posted by findark View Post
Hi TheBigVig, welcome to FlyerTalk!

When searching inventory with the intent of understanding flight loads, you generally need to do each segment individually. Searching them together only shows what UA is willing to sell on a through fare LIH-IAD. For these flights, I see:

03MAR18 LIHLAX UA456 : F2 Z1 P0
03MAR18 LAXIAD UA584 : F7 A4 C5 D3 Z2 P1 PN0


Unfortunately, I have a lot of bad news. Your odds of getting upgraded on LIH-LAX are basically zero with two seats left and 15 days to go. The LAX-IAD redeye is not a whole lot better, but I think it's at least more like 15% to clear. The only thing to do to increase your odds of sitting up front is to buy F. Note that if you keep the upgrade waitlist applied, your PNR will split when you check in and you may be separated if one of you clears and the other does not. If any upgrades are the top priority, check in immediately at T-24 but still don't hold your breath.

Yes, if you clear one leg and not the other the entire miles+copay is consumed. Economy Plus is not likely to significantly decrease in price; however, you will see a buyup in the neighborhood of $309 (LIH-LAX) and $249 (LAX-IAD) if any seats remain in the premium cabin on those flights at check-in.

Honestly, this just sounds like an absolutely miserable trip - hope you're at least getting something out of it!
Thank you for all the info - very helpful (to set expectations if nothing else). Unfortunately we can't just buy a F ticket because Uncle Sam is paying. We'll pray for a freak Hawaiian snowstorm to delay our flight so we can spend the night in LA. Haha......
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Old Feb 16, 18, 3:35 pm
  #2283  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Miami, Florida
Programs: UA Gold, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Gold, IHG Platinum
Posts: 2,590
You should be able to buy up to F on your exact same flights by calling United and asking to do so. They waive the change fees when the itinerary is the same and only the fare class is changing.
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Old Feb 17, 18, 12:54 pm
  #2284  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Programs: United - 1K
Posts: 13
June 15th SFO to LHR on 777-300ER. E+ is booked at about 50%. E is booked at about 50% as well. BC is booked 4/60. Is this a good flight to look at for a GPU on a W fare because E and E+ are booked or is my logic faulty? (1K)
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Old Feb 17, 18, 1:26 pm
  #2285  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: LIH
Posts: 8
Originally Posted by joe_miami View Post
You should be able to buy up to F on your exact same flights by calling United and asking to do so. They waive the change fees when the itinerary is the same and only the fare class is changing.
Well, unfortunately because the ticket was purchased by a gov't agency, the United CSR says I can't buy an upgrade to first class. I'd have to go through the NIH travel agency, but of course they don't buy first class tickets for patients. So looks like I'm stuck hoping the miles upgrade goes through.
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Old Feb 17, 18, 3:39 pm
  #2286  
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Originally Posted by TheBigVig View Post
We're both disabled and when we fly from our home in Kauai to the East Coast we always spend a night or two in Seattle or San Francisco to make things easier.
I'm no expert on this subject, but doesn't UA block seats in the front Y bulkhead (non exit row) for disabled pax? On the 319/20 (for example) that's row 7, which are some of the best Y seats in the UA fleet. Have you called UA to ask about special seat assignments?
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Old Feb 17, 18, 7:37 pm
  #2287  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
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Originally Posted by TheBigVig View Post
Well, unfortunately because the ticket was purchased by a gov't agency, the United CSR says I can't buy an upgrade to first class. I'd have to go through the NIH travel agency, but of course they don't buy first class tickets for patients. So looks like I'm stuck hoping the miles upgrade goes through.
Interesting; thanks. I thought the fact that you could do the miles upgrade would mean UA would be even happier to take your money.
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Old Feb 17, 18, 7:53 pm
  #2288  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K, DL, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
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Originally Posted by TheBigVig View Post
Well, unfortunately because the ticket was purchased by a gov't agency, the United CSR says I can't buy an upgrade to first class. I'd have to go through the NIH travel agency, but of course they don't buy first class tickets for patients. So looks like I'm stuck hoping the miles upgrade goes through.
If you're willing to pay the fare difference to F, I think @halls120 might have some experience buying up -CA fares out of pocket. I know with a normal agency ticket it sometimes just takes a bit of HUCA to get someone who will do a cabin change, but not sure if the government fare complicates things further.
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Old Feb 19, 18, 4:40 pm
  #2289  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 427
F4A4JN4C4D4Z3ZN3P3PN0R0RN0IN0I0Y9YN9B9M9E9U9H9HN9Q 9V9W9S9T9L9K0G0N9XN9X0

IAD-LAS 8am flight, 1K and wife on separate reservations, RPU applied approx 30 days ago, we are 56 hours before the flight.
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Old Feb 19, 18, 4:41 pm
  #2290  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 3,694
Originally Posted by justsawaufo View Post
F4A4JN4C4D4Z3ZN3P3PN0R0RN0IN0I0Y9YN9B9M9E9U9H9HN9Q 9V9W9S9T9L9K0G0N9XN9X0

IAD-LAS 8am flight, 1K and wife on separate reservations, RPU applied approx 30 days ago, we are 56 hours before the flight.
50% perhaps. If you don't clear by T-24, your odds go down dramatically.
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Old Feb 19, 18, 7:02 pm
  #2291  
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Originally Posted by fumje View Post
50% perhaps. If you don't clear by T-24, your odds go down dramatically.
I would say chances are nearer to 0 unless the booking class is way up there (like E/H/U vs. S/T/L/K). No PN even open at this point, meaning there may be GS and other premier with Y/B/M upgrades that will clear above 1K.... I wouldn't hold a breath for this one, unfortunately. Even a GS has low odds, as they will likely try to sell OLCI upgrades if a couple seats are left on DoD.
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Old Feb 20, 18, 9:31 am
  #2292  
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 749
4/21 TPA-SFO (Used 20k points to upgrade
4/25 SEA-IAD(Noon flight(Used 20k points to upgrade)
1K status.....thoughts on upgrade?
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Old Feb 20, 18, 12:04 pm
  #2293  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 55
Originally Posted by lpro1111 View Post
Hi, 1K flying EWR to HKG - 2 tickets for me and my wife - W fare. Travel dates are Sunday July 1st returning on Sat July 7th.
I have applied 4 GPUs. I feel like this is a quieter time of year, what do you think chances of clearing are? Obviously its very early but plane wide open now.
Hi - just bumping this up looking for opinions. Currently 5 seats gone (out of 50 or so) on each flight, outbound and return.
Want to know if this is a pipe dream or upgrades on this route, this time of year have a good chance of clearing.
Thanks in advance...
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Old Feb 20, 18, 3:08 pm
  #2294  
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Originally Posted by lpro1111 View Post
Hi - just bumping this up looking for opinions. Currently 5 seats gone (out of 50 or so) on each flight, outbound and return.
Want to know if this is a pipe dream or upgrades on this route, this time of year have a good chance of clearing.
Thanks in advance...
Simply too far out to make a good judgement. It is a Saturday flight, and during prime travel season in the US which will make it likely more difficult.... very difficult to predict how this will turn out at this moment. At least you are far ahead of the game here... other 1K's that book and apply GPU's on W fares will be behind you in line, so that's a plus. Check back around June... that's when the picture will be more resolute.
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Old Feb 20, 18, 3:32 pm
  #2295  
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: CLE
Programs: RA, UA MM 1k, AA EXP, Marriott LTP, Hyatt Plat, SPG100
Posts: 474
What do you think are my chances to clear? Flight is about a month out. I'm 1K on W fare.

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