bhrubin

We live in SoCal but our favorite destination is South Africa (we've been three times already in 2003, 2007, and our 2010 wedding/honeymoon, and we're heading back in December 2014).

We would love if UA offered IAH-JNB (or better yet IAH-CPT) service--which presumably the 787 would now allow. The current IAH-LOS service still requires 3 segments for us to reach SA. LAX-LHR connecting to SAA's LHR-JNB (which is how we're going in December) takes 2 segments but is a lot of flying time. SAA's JFK-JNB and IAD-JNB services suggests the route is workable...but maybe UA doesn't want to compete with SAA? (J class seems impossible to book on SAA using UA miles on their JNB service from either JFK or IAD.)

Any rumors that UA might open service to SA?

I've heard the rumor that AA might consider service from MIA-JNB.

lhrsfo

CPT is unlikely as, after SAA and VS pulled out of their LHR services, BA is the only airline serving Europe from CPT. Apparently, although the back fills up, there are few revenue buyers for the front. So it seems unlikely that you'll see CPT ti the US - the only thing really going for CPT over JNB is that it's at sea level.

As to JNB itself, UA is in retraction mode rather than expansion mode.

From LAX, BA offers really good service with good connection times and all A380 options.

B6UA

CPT is also served by KLM & TK year-round, as well as LH seasonally (MUC-CPT) from Europe. The most direct *A flight for OP may be LAX-IST-CPT on TK with the exception of the seasonal LH service.

bhrubin

UA isn't in retraction mode to the emerging market in China (as with SFO-CTU), so I'm not sure South Africa (the biggest economy in Africa, though Nigeria will overtake it) is an impossibility--barring the distance proposition. The 787 is the only option here, since I suspect loads wouldn't be big enough to warrant a 777.

IF UA were to consider South Africa as a destination, I'd assume it would consider departures from IAH or IAD/EWR--since they involve less distance. IAH and EWR also wouldn't compete with the SAA flights JFK/IAD-JNB.

IF UA were to consider South Africa, we'd expect JNB to be the more likely economic destination with more paying premium passengers...but CPT is less distant, at sea level, and therefore requires less fuel. For UA flyers, having nonstop service to CPT connecting to SAA's frequent CPT-JNB service would probably be preferable than flying through Europe--assuming UA decides that South Africa is a worthy market to serve, of course.

It also is possible that UA could send another IAH-LOS with continuing service onto JNB (more likely) or CPT (less likely) if that qualifies as a Fifth Freedom?

BA offers a good product on LHR-CPT, but it is tougher to use AA/BA miles to get J or F to CPT--they release almost no award space. Besides, I can already get LAX/SFO-LHR on UA and then connect to SAA's LHR-JNB as an award--which is comparable routing with better award space.

It would be great to have UA open a route to SA. I'd even be happy if AA opens the rumored MIA-JNB/CPT route since that allows us to bypass Europe. I hate DL, so I avoid the ATL-JNB route--the only option now from the USA. Though marginally important, Marriott's acquisition of Protea hotels in South Africa, and Marriott's partnership with UA, also makes me wonder if UA might see an opportunity.

UA Fan

I doubt UA wants to compete with SA.

bhrubin

I doubt it, too...which is why I wonder if IAH-JNB/CPT would ever be in the cards.

I suppose EWR-JNB would also be possible, though still competing against SAA's JFK-JNB. But UA's network better feeds EWR much more than JFK, so it might be a draw.

I realize it's a pipe dream...but I can dream.

787fan

IAH-JNB is 9000+ miles long. Even if it were at sea-level (say IAH-JNB-CPT-IAH triangle), it's way too long for the 787-9

Any star connection is already handled at IAD (albeit via DKR as well)

Karlson

I doubt that UA wants and needs to compete with SA, Star Alliance partner flies from the USA to there, why bother to start competition?

UA-NYC

Yup...look what happened with EWR-IST, that didn't last long in the face of a far superior *A frenemy

bhrubin

I'd offer that there are only 3 current flights from the USA to South Africa:

JFK-JNB with SAA
IAD-JNB with SAA
ATL-JNB with DL

I'd think that another flight from another city to JNB/CPT could be a good option with the growing economy in South Africa. After all, SAA's route network allows the UA passenger to connect with its Star Alliance partner SAA once there--which is why EWR/IAD/IAH-CPT could work if UA didn't want to go the extra distance/elevation/fuel for IAH/EWRIAD-JNB.

Connecting to Star Alliance partner SAA's network actually helps UA with flights to SA. DL passengers don't have benefits when they get to JNB. AA passengers wouldn't either, assuming AA is serious about MIA-JNB. UA customers would be well connected with Star benefits.

I'd also offer that UA introducing IAH-JNB/CPT could siphon business away from DL's ATL-JNB service more than away from SAA. That's pure speculation, of course...but DL is the only US carrier offering service to SA. American consumers might like the UA option from IAH over the SAA options, especially when coming from the Western half of the USA.

You may be right--UA may not see SA as a money-making option. But I am hopeful. UA's IAH-LOS introduced UA to Africa's second biggest economy, Nigeria--because of oil business, of course. UA's service to JNB/CPT would introduce UA to Africa's biggest economy...with potential for growth as the SA economy grows further. There is a reason Marriott purchased Protea hotels in South Africa--they see growth potential in Southern Africa and South Africa, in particular.

Mbenz

Would be nice but I doubt it will happen. I go there frequently from the East Coast and through Europe on *A you can frequently get Y for $1,000 and C for $5,000 so doesn't seem that profitable?

bhrubin

I rarely have seen Y for less than $1200 to SA. But you may be right.

However, many Americans would appreciate the reduced flying time with a UA nonstop to South Africa--and business travelers certainly would appreciate that. Business travelers now have only the 3 current options from the USA to South Africa, so Western based business travelers would likely find IAH-JNB/CPT to be a plus. I guess the question is how much demand there is. Until SAA and DL offered theirs, many questioned the business--so it is possible the business is there.

Mbenz

Yes good point. I try avoid the SA "direct" flight from IAD, but the one time I took it in recent years I ended up paying $11k, however the price was comparable to going through Europe since it was relatively last minute. if I recall business was rather full across the Atlantic and then filled up totally once we stopped in ACC for fuel.

I feel from the from the west coast SFO/LAX-LHR/MUC/FRA/ZRH-JNB is not much worse the SFO/LAX-IAD/JFK/ATL-JNB, and actually better because could be on the international C the whole way, but the long layovers in europe probably kills it for most people. I actually try make the best of it and do a day in LHR or FRA. I used to do a morning flight IAD-LHR, have 23hrs with a true overnight in LHR then onto JNB, however don't have as much time these days.

I used to try do LHR-CPT-XXX in the past to avoid JNB, too bad CPT isn't much of an option these days.

3Cforme

The economics of ultra-long-haul - burning a lot of fuel to carry the weight of a lot of fuel for distance- are not particularly attractive at 8000sm+ and $100/barrel. (In mid-2002, when PIA became the 777-200LR launch customer, WTI spot prices were around $30/barrel.)

JFK-JNB with SAA, 7969 miles
IAD-JNB with SAA, 8134 miles
ATL-JNB with DL, 8439 miles
IAH-JNB, 9023 miles

That, and for essentially no U.S./48 metro areas is xxx-IAH-JNB shorter than xxx-ATL-JNB.

chriskuo

I would think UA is looking to China for its best emerging market opportunities.