Barrons: United Airlines & JetBlue: Plane Swap (?)
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: LAS HNL
Programs: DL DM, 5.7 MM, UA 3.1 MM, MARRIOTT PLATINUM, AVIS FIRST, Amex Black Card
Posts: 4,479
Barrons: United Airlines & JetBlue: Plane Swap (?)
Wolfe Research’s Hunter Keay and Jared Shojaian think United Continental (UAL) and JetBlue (JBLU) should swap planes. They explain:
We believe both United Continental and JetBlue have fleet inefficiencies that contribute to poor margins for both airlines. If United Continental acquired JetBlue’s 60 E-190s (and the 24 on order), in a transaction like the one Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) announced in 2012 when Southwest Airlines agreed to sublease its 88 B717s to Delta Air Lines, we believe both companies would benefit. This would also represent no incremental capacity to United Continental, by our math…
We believe both United Continental and JetBlue have fleet inefficiencies that contribute to poor margins for both airlines. If United Continental acquired JetBlue’s 60 E-190s (and the 24 on order), in a transaction like the one Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) announced in 2012 when Southwest Airlines agreed to sublease its 88 B717s to Delta Air Lines, we believe both companies would benefit. This would also represent no incremental capacity to United Continental, by our math…
I added the (?) to this article I found under "headlines for UAL", as it could be correct, perhaps not. What "swap"? UA pilots would not fly this plane, under the current agreement, or could they? Can Express fly this plane under the current UA agreement?
Facts about this AC:
http://www.embraercommercialaviation...Ejets-190.aspx
#3
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: LAS HNL
Programs: DL DM, 5.7 MM, UA 3.1 MM, MARRIOTT PLATINUM, AVIS FIRST, Amex Black Card
Posts: 4,479
Sounds like a win-win. Who would fly the planes? Jeff could possibly manage the ship at B6 - it is not as complicated as the "new UA". Of course he would remove everything B6 has going for it to save (not $2B) but only 500M.
The trade could be perfect. Jeff gets a new job, throw in all the 50 seat RJ's UA is currently flying and it would be MINT!
#4
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2013
Programs: DL PM, MR Titanium/LTP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 10,130
This is almost as dumb as the analyst who said UA should de-hub IAD. As said above what exactly would B6 be getting in return? And why would they give up E90s? Their fleet is streamlined to be A320s, E90s, and now A321s - I can't imagine they're looking to swap to another new model just as the A321 comes online (even with it being similar to the A320s).
Further what purpose would UA have with an E90? They can't be flown by UAx because that would require them to be fitted with just 76 seats (which would lead to a lot of dead space or a huge F cabin which we might like but isn't reasonable) and I can't see them having mainline pilots flying a plane that AC configures at 88 Y / 8 F. Why waste mainline pilots on a plane that small when you can use them for the bigger 737s and A320s and just try and pack more people into them.
Further what purpose would UA have with an E90? They can't be flown by UAx because that would require them to be fitted with just 76 seats (which would lead to a lot of dead space or a huge F cabin which we might like but isn't reasonable) and I can't see them having mainline pilots flying a plane that AC configures at 88 Y / 8 F. Why waste mainline pilots on a plane that small when you can use them for the bigger 737s and A320s and just try and pack more people into them.
#6
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: CLE or EWR or ORD
Programs: UA Gold
Posts: 134
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPad; CPU OS 7_1_1 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/537.51.2 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/7.0 Mobile/11D201 Safari/9537.53)
So people get paid to post fantasy trades in the business world, not just sports? Intredasting.
So people get paid to post fantasy trades in the business world, not just sports? Intredasting.
#11
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: New York, NY
Programs: UA, AA, DL, Hertz, Avis, National, Hyatt, Hilton, SPG, Marriott
Posts: 9,450
It's an interesting premise, but I doubt it has legs. The current UAL contract has a payscale for the 190 which falls somewhere between bargain-basement pay for similar equipment at contract operators (SkyWest, Mesa, Compass) and JetBlue's uneconomical rates. With slimelines, UA can probably squeeze a 12/16/72 configuration in a 190, staff it with two flight attendants and achieve slightly better operating costs than the DL 717s.
Moreover, the 190s are already wired for LiveTV, which would facilitate an easier installation of the Ka-band wifi product. I'm not sure if the TVs would survive a transition to UAL.
The question would be whether B6 has interest in getting rid of their 190s, and if so, how they intend to backfill capacity. It is known that the 190s have the worst economics in the B6 fleet, so it's not entirely farfetched to consider that they would make a deal to unload them.
Moreover, the 190s are already wired for LiveTV, which would facilitate an easier installation of the Ka-band wifi product. I'm not sure if the TVs would survive a transition to UAL.
The question would be whether B6 has interest in getting rid of their 190s, and if so, how they intend to backfill capacity. It is known that the 190s have the worst economics in the B6 fleet, so it's not entirely farfetched to consider that they would make a deal to unload them.
#12
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: AA LT Plat, UA 1k/1mm+, National EE, IC Plat, Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 2,605
What should really happen at some point, is for some airline CEO to tell Keay and Baker and all the other idiots to go eff off.
If management at the big airlines ran their companies for their customers rather than for Wall Street, the airlines would actually be doing much better financially.
That Keay would even think that a harebrained idea like this is kosher to air in public shows just how much hubris these guys have and how much influence they think they have over the airline managements.
Last time Jeffey took Hunter's advice on a major strategy shift (declare war on frequent fliers and cut cost), Jeffey paid for it with terrible results....only to be sold out by Keay and Baker after the fact.
These guys really are some pieces of work...
If management at the big airlines ran their companies for their customers rather than for Wall Street, the airlines would actually be doing much better financially.
That Keay would even think that a harebrained idea like this is kosher to air in public shows just how much hubris these guys have and how much influence they think they have over the airline managements.
Last time Jeffey took Hunter's advice on a major strategy shift (declare war on frequent fliers and cut cost), Jeffey paid for it with terrible results....only to be sold out by Keay and Baker after the fact.
These guys really are some pieces of work...
#13
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: UA Silver, Marriott Platinum/LT Platinum, Hilton Gold
Posts: 5,594
What should really happen at some point, is for some airline CEO to tell Keay and Baker and all the other idiots to go eff off.
If management at the big airlines ran their companies for their customers rather than for Wall Street, the airlines would actually be doing much better financially.
That Keay would even think that a harebrained idea like this is kosher to air in public shows just how much hubris these guys have and how much influence they think they have over the airline managements.
Last time Jeffey took Hunter's advice on a major strategy shift (declare war on frequent fliers and cut cost), Jeffey paid for it with terrible results....only to be sold out by Keay and Baker after the fact.
These guys really are some pieces of work...
If management at the big airlines ran their companies for their customers rather than for Wall Street, the airlines would actually be doing much better financially.
That Keay would even think that a harebrained idea like this is kosher to air in public shows just how much hubris these guys have and how much influence they think they have over the airline managements.
Last time Jeffey took Hunter's advice on a major strategy shift (declare war on frequent fliers and cut cost), Jeffey paid for it with terrible results....only to be sold out by Keay and Baker after the fact.
These guys really are some pieces of work...
My question is does anyone (including investors) really even pay attention to these analysts any more.
I work in a completely different industry but when my company was acquired several years ago, the analysts all applauded the move and listed all of the synergies, etc. As you could guess, very little if any of those happened, and likely weren't ever in the CEO's plan.
#14
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.995MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,850
Love it when stock analysts play CEO (of course based on their vast experiences in running real companies).
#15
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 3,790
This makes no sense whatsoever. I do agree both UA and B6 are underperforming their peers, but the E190's, as much as B6 complains about them, are critical right now to them for starting up new markets, especially with their DCA expansion. On the other side, I don't see what UA could do with them. They are too big to be a RJ but too small to serve some larger markets. Also, B6 would be out more than 60 aircraft, what are they going to get in return, UA's A319's??? This absolutely makes no sense and this will likely never happen.
That was hilarious
That was hilarious