UAL 15 Minute Long Shareholders Meeting (June 11th, 2014)
#46
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
If I could time it, its a smart bet. But hard to buy just before he gets cannned.
#47
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Somewhere...
Programs: AA PLT/3MM, UA GM/1MM, DL DM/1MM, FB Plat, AS MVP Gold, WN AList+
Posts: 1,588
I have contacts inside Wacker Dr. and both have told me that morale throughout the company is about as low as it has ever been.
To them SMI/J is showing all the signs of a bitter, embattled leader - where he sees nothing but enemies on all sides. Contact with the shareholders, customers or line employees are the least of his concerns now. He barely interacts with anyone outside of his direct reports.
Any type of a leader would have used this event to engage and explain to those that are now so angry.
But, as we have seen from his other actions SMI/J is anything but a leader or visionary. He made a bet on where the industry was headed (i.e, the lowest common denominator) and lost. He cared little about legacy Customers or employees and thought the magic of the balance sheet was the key. Too much lawyer/finance guy, not nearly enough of a line manager/ops guy.
The general feeling is that SMI/J is now just trying to extricate himself from this mess with his pockets as filled as much as possible and something resembling any kind of respect before he is shown the door. There is little to nothing he can do for UAL now (except allow his flunky direct reports to run it even further into the ground), nor will he be running any other major Corporations in the future.
SMI/J was a horrible choice to lead this firm through the merger. Someone like Gordon, CrAAndall or Herb probably could have pulled it off considering what they started with, but SMI/J never seemed to pick up what made CO come back so well from the brink.
The Hedgies and Institutional's will call the shots on this one (the BOD appears to be composed of useless flunkies and lackies to allow things to get this bad) as to the exit package/resignation, but I would be very surprised if SMI/J makes it to 4Q14 in his current position.
#48
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 35,067
#49
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: SJC
Programs: Southwest, Alaska, United, American Airlines
Posts: 994
I've been thinking more like 4Q/1Q 2015, but the news has been unusually bad of late... If UAL performs (or more accurately underperforms) as badly as it appears they will in 2Q 2014, you may be correct. His refusal to say that the guidance of +1-3% PRASM was "conservative" was a clear sign of where things are going....
#50
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 35,067
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; U; Android 4.1.2; en-us; LG-P659 Build/JZO54K) AppleWebKit/534.30 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile Safari/534.30)
I think the end of the year or early 2015 is more appropriate. Most good potential replacement CEOs will have zero desire to be greeted by incomplete merger-related labor negotiations or major system cutovers coming through the door, and these items likely won't fully play out until the end of the summer or well into the fall.
There is littl likelihood of the labor relations working themselves out while Smisek is at the helm.
Originally Posted by nerdbirdsjc
I've been thinking more like 4Q/1Q 2015, but the news has been unusually bad of late... If UAL performs (or more accurately underperforms) as badly as it appears they will in 2Q 2014, you may be correct. His refusal to say that the guidance of +1-3% PRASM was "conservative" was a clear sign of where things are going....
#51
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: What I write is my opinion alone..don't read into it anything not written.
Posts: 9,684
Not that anyone expected a change, but Smi/J had about 1.5x as many "no" votes to get reelected to the BoD as most of the others on the board. (Vitale <President of Chicago Board of Education> was up there too.) http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140612/ual8-k.html
Last edited by fastair; Jun 13, 2014 at 6:51 am
#52
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: LA
Posts: 1,281
Not that anyone expected a change, but Smi/J had about 1.5x as many "no" votes to get reelected to the BoD as most of the others on the board. (Vitale <President of Chicago Board of Education> was up there too.) http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140612/ual8-k.html
#53
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NCL
Programs: UA 1MM/*G. DL Gold for one more year.
Posts: 5,305
To them SMI/J is showing all the signs of a bitter, embattled leader - where he sees nothing but enemies on all sides. Contact with the shareholders, customers or line employees are the least of his concerns now. He barely interacts with anyone outside of his direct reports.
#55
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: LA
Posts: 1,281
I've ran across his twice at ORD, but so far never the same flight.
#56
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: UA Silver, Marriott Platinum/LT Platinum, Hilton Gold
Posts: 5,594
+1
I have contacts inside Wacker Dr. and both have told me that morale throughout the company is about as low as it has ever been.
To them SMI/J is showing all the signs of a bitter, embattled leader - where he sees nothing but enemies on all sides. Contact with the shareholders, customers or line employees are the least of his concerns now. He barely interacts with anyone outside of his direct reports.
Any type of a leader would have used this event to engage and explain to those that are now so angry.
But, as we have seen from his other actions SMI/J is anything but a leader or visionary. He made a bet on where the industry was headed (i.e, the lowest common denominator) and lost. He cared little about legacy Customers or employees and thought the magic of the balance sheet was the key. Too much lawyer/finance guy, not nearly enough of a line manager/ops guy.
The general feeling is that SMI/J is now just trying to extricate himself from this mess with his pockets as filled as much as possible and something resembling any kind of respect before he is shown the door. There is little to nothing he can do for UAL now (except allow his flunky direct reports to run it even further into the ground), nor will he be running any other major Corporations in the future.
SMI/J was a horrible choice to lead this firm through the merger. Someone like Gordon, CrAAndall or Herb probably could have pulled it off considering what they started with, but SMI/J never seemed to pick up what made CO come back so well from the brink.
The Hedgies and Institutional's will call the shots on this one (the BOD appears to be composed of useless flunkies and lackies to allow things to get this bad) as to the exit package/resignation, but I would be very surprised if SMI/J makes it to 4Q14 in his current position.
I have contacts inside Wacker Dr. and both have told me that morale throughout the company is about as low as it has ever been.
To them SMI/J is showing all the signs of a bitter, embattled leader - where he sees nothing but enemies on all sides. Contact with the shareholders, customers or line employees are the least of his concerns now. He barely interacts with anyone outside of his direct reports.
Any type of a leader would have used this event to engage and explain to those that are now so angry.
But, as we have seen from his other actions SMI/J is anything but a leader or visionary. He made a bet on where the industry was headed (i.e, the lowest common denominator) and lost. He cared little about legacy Customers or employees and thought the magic of the balance sheet was the key. Too much lawyer/finance guy, not nearly enough of a line manager/ops guy.
The general feeling is that SMI/J is now just trying to extricate himself from this mess with his pockets as filled as much as possible and something resembling any kind of respect before he is shown the door. There is little to nothing he can do for UAL now (except allow his flunky direct reports to run it even further into the ground), nor will he be running any other major Corporations in the future.
SMI/J was a horrible choice to lead this firm through the merger. Someone like Gordon, CrAAndall or Herb probably could have pulled it off considering what they started with, but SMI/J never seemed to pick up what made CO come back so well from the brink.
The Hedgies and Institutional's will call the shots on this one (the BOD appears to be composed of useless flunkies and lackies to allow things to get this bad) as to the exit package/resignation, but I would be very surprised if SMI/J makes it to 4Q14 in his current position.
I've seen this with CEO's a couple of times. First time, was a long time CEO who was allowed to announce his retirement. He was very well liked, just couldn't guide the company through a big change.
Second time the CEO holed up and didn't communicate to anyone but direct reports for nearly a year, but she managed to pull the company out of a bad financial situation, and is still in place.
I believe, similar to you, that he's out around the time of the Q3 earnings call. He knows he's in trouble.
#57
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: San Francisco/Tel Aviv/YYZ
Programs: CO 1K-MM
Posts: 10,761
Not that anyone expected a change, but Smi/J had about 1.5x as many "no" votes to get reelected to the BoD as most of the others on the board. (Vitale <President of Chicago Board of Education> was up there too.) http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140612/ual8-k.html
The fundamental responsibility of the board is to hire and fire the CEO. This board seems grossly incapable of that.
#58
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,394
1) what did he fly as "competition" internationally? If interntinally he only flew an old AA bird and LH, then he probably doesn't realize how far behind UA is.
2) interesting to note "both classes" I find it hard to believe he's never experienced F on LH or an asian carrier. But it is telling that he thinks about 2-class.
#59
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: LA
Posts: 1,281
There is two things they are hoping for: 1) Jeff can turn it around, or 2) If he isn't able to turn around that he takes all the crap for doing the dirty job so that the new CEO can win morale over. If it's the latter, the dirty work will not be done by Q3, it's still quite a ways out.
Why bring a new CEO into this mess to have them lose trust so quickly and then have to bring another new CEO in and ramp up within 1-2 years.
#60
Join Date: May 2005
Programs: Million Miler, 1K - Basically spend a lot of time on planes
Posts: 2,202
It would be interesting to know if he flew the good planes or bad planes. If he flew the newer AA service on the 777, he must have crapped his pants like the person in the other thread.