Boghopper

The people who run DCA and the people who run IAD are the same people.

I happened to have the chance to ask senior staff at IAD about this very question. The answer I got was that United doesn't want to pay for it (they balked years ago, before the CO geniuses showed up), but that some point the deferred maintenance on the existing facility (tens of millions and counting) will be more than the cost of a new facility. They have been kicking the can down the road for a long time, but at some point UA will have to make the choice to pay up or leave IAD. Evidently UA has threatened to leave if the pfc is increased to pay for facilities cost (new or maintenance), on the theory that EWR is the true east coast hub and UA could serve flights for DC from there. Given all their gov contracts I don't know how well that would really fly (no pun intended).

But at some point the C and D "temporary" terminals will get craptastic enough that UA will be forced to call its own bluff.

Often1

It's a game of chicken. Because it's DC (or at least a DC airport), sooner or later Congress will fund a new C/D terminal. UA knows that the MWAA knows it and Congress knows it. Nobody wants to admit it. But, it will happen.

paytonc

Haven't seen any references to this, but Smisek said last year during an IAD visit that "We are keenly interested in improving what I would call the 'mature' facilities that we operate out of here today."

The issue he cited then was that MWAA has borrowed a lot to build things at IAD lately, like Concourse B and AirTrain, whereas DCA is relatively unencumbered by MWAA debt. (Is this just a roundabout way for Smisek to claim that AA DCA should pay for new UA IAD facilities? DCA's overhauled Terminal 2 is now 17 years old and has been mostly paid off, hence the recent moves to improve T1 and maybe add a new pier.) Smisek also cited the need to cut costs on the design, which isn't exactly encouraging.

One ray of hope: if a new FAA authorization bill passes and raises the PFC ceiling, then that would increase IAD's bonding authority and nullify Jeff's complaint.

Now one ray of doubt: the current MWAA budgets refer to yet another "rehabilitation" meant to extend the C/D concourses' lives another 10 years.

The permanent "Tier 2" concourse is nowhere to be seen in the 2014 budget, but might make an appearance once the current capital construction program expires in 2016.

LETTERBOY

That may happen, but I doubt it will be anytime soon, given the "cut everything" mentality in Washington.

Often1

And nothing will happen until it does.

Pingtung

At some point it will have too. Though I feel confident that they will have to rehabilitate the "Future Concourse C" image they have at the exit of the C train station before that happens.

BearX220

I don't know about that. The old West Falls Church / Washington Flyer arrangement was less apt to get stuck in traffic and used a proper Greyhound-class bus rather than a city transit jalopy-type bus. I will be trying the new deal this week but I tend to think we've given up a lot in order to have a $5 bus ride, not a $10 one.

The other source of pressure is the behavior of the flying public. Boardings at Dulles are in decline, have been for years, and DCA is set to surpass both IAD and BWI shortly in total boardings. (DCA has had IAD beat for domestic enplanements since 2005 or so.). Flyers are voting with their feet. Besides the fact that people don't like schlepping out to Dulles, and don't like the long walks and bizarre train arrangements and leisurely moon-buggy rides and crappy midfield concourses, the AA/US tieup is also stimulating DCA traffic and turning DCA into exactly what MWAA doesn't want it to be: a connecting hub that is an additional threat to UA's business at IAD... and IAD's intended role as the region's main connection and long-haul airport.

Dig this (contains link to interesting MWAA PDF presentation): http://dcist.com/2014/10/national_ai..._too_popul.php

MWAA official policy is to promote IAD traffic but they put no money where their mouths are. In fact, much higher costs per enplanement at Dulles are a further de facto discouragement.

It may be that UA's retraction-minded post-merger management makes MWAA think twice about committing to IAD concourse upgrades. What if UA downsizes at Dulles? What carrier would replace that lift? How would MWAA reverse the unwanted DCA-over-IAD trend then?

halls120

The only problem with that graph is that it is tainted by the rapid growth and fall of Indy Air. Take 2004-2006 out of the graph, and the IAD decrease is much less drastic.

Yes, DCA is more popular - in part because its more convenient, but also because it isn't a dump like much of Dulles is.

You want to go where?

IAD is still the future - not simply only because of the inherent limitations of DCA, but also because of the growing population hub that is closer to IAD than DCA. DCA will always have a market, but the growing market is in the I66 and Dulles corridor.

BearX220

I'd say IAD is PART of the future in the long, next-decade sense.

For domestic trips, if you're in the District, Alexandria / Arlington, and possibly Silver Spring / Bethesda / Chevy Chase, you will gravitate to DCA. If you're in the rest of Montgomery County, PG County, and the BWP corridor you will gravitate to BWI. If you're in Tysons and west of there, you will gravitate to IAD. It is true that the latter catchment is growing, but not to the extent it will blot out the case for the other two airports.

The exception to the above set of divisions: if I am on Capitol Hill and have a choice between BWI and IAD, I will go BWI because of MARC.

mh3265a

I think this is a little too general. People in the DC area if they live near/close to Metro would prefer DCA if they can catch a direct flight. Otherwise folks use IAD for the direct flights or BWI with Southwest direct flights. Plenty of folks in MoCo prefer IAD because it's a rather quick ride once you get onto the Dulles access road.

dcpdxtrans

I've never picked an airport bc it was not a dump or was. I take IAD bc of the NS traffic, unless I'm coming from SFO, and then I can go DCA. DCA is so much more convenient, period. I like BWI only if I can include a trip to sushi sono!

halls120

I have, and do it all the time. For example, I won't fly into a US airport from overseas if their arrival facilities are crap.

euslaner

Sitting there in Seattle, you don't have a clear map of the DC area. I live in Montgomery County. With normal traffic, IAD is a half hour drive, BWI at least an hour. So much for gravitating to BWI (with its handful of UA flights a day). I used to go there when I was flying to ORD (once a year) and BWI flights were much cheaper. Now the pricing is pretty much the same, so I save myself the hassle.

If you think things are bad now, just wait until the Republicans take control of the Senate. Federal spending will be slashed to the bone and rebuilding C/D at IAD will be less likely than a new push for federal recognition of gay marriage and full funding for Planned Parenthood.

euslaner

Depends upon where you live. IAD is much more convenient than DC for me.