A Modest Theory of Why Upgrades Became More Difficult to Obtain After the Merger
#16
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This is tongue in cheek, so take it in the light hearted way it is intended. Bigger route network allows MRs/segment runners more legs that they wouldn't have had before, so instead of using the network for an efficient routing, it allows a few to suck up more upgrades on flights they never would have been on in the past. Yesterday, I worked an ORD-CLE flight and got a call from our connection planner that we were going to be holding a few min for a few connections coming in on a IAH-ORD flight (it made up time and the people were directed quickly to us, so we didn't end up delaying the flight) and my 1st thought was "Aren't there plenty of IAH-CLE non-stop flight options without having to fly thru ORD?!?!"
#17
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As an example. I was CPU'd both directions 2 weeks ago. On the outbound I wasn't even notified, I just happened to check my flight the night before and saw we didn't have our chosen Y aisle seats and an F seat had not been assigned. So less than T-24 with no seat assignment. On the return, we did get notified at +/- T-24. As a Plat, that should be earlier.
Needless to say, they are holding out applying CPU's until the very last minute in hopes of upselling F seats. I guess if I had this kind of financial pressure and a spotlight on me, I would do the same.
#18
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I still remember the old days of UA mileage runs where you could literally connect anywhere, not just the hubs....I've connected in MDT between IAD-ORD and SBA between SFO and DEN...I miss those days Now some of the fares actually only let you connect once and it has to basically be at a hub so MRing still happens, but not with the "variety" of the past.
.bomb has offered me stuff like IAD-DSM-DEN and EWR-SYR-IAD recently. But then, when I try to connect at LAX instead of SFO on a particular routing to avoid potential WX in SFO (and of course the whole T1 UX fiasco), UA treats it as two end-on-end one-ways instead of a connection and thus skyrockets the price.
#19
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I would say two main reasons:
1. Capacity has declined and for the same capacity, the elimination of wide body domestic flying (at least out of ORD) in favor of A320s/737s or smaller has also reduced the ratio of F/Y seats. I can remember at times in the past, flying 747s ORD-SFO/DEN/LAX and DC-10s to SEA, LAS, and PHL. As far as I can tell, over time those twin aisle flights have dwindled to the point that today, they are all gone. If you had some schedule flexibility and wanted to seek out an easier upgrade, you could schedule towards those flights, now you can't. Even if those seats are replaced with the equivalent single aisle capacity with more frequency, those planes carry a lower percentage of premium seats relative to the planes they replaced. An A319 only has 8 F seats, an A320 12. I look for 757 flights because it has 24 in F, but that plane isn't made anymore and will probably be replaced by 737-9s long term, those have 20 F seats.
2. I don't fly mainline but about 1-2x a month, but my impression is that where I used to have good odds at the gate, I don't anymore. If I haven't cleared before T-24, I'm not going to. Either a GS will get it or United will find a way to sell it for whatever incremental revenue it can get, where before United would hold that seat for a full boat walk up F ticket before giving it away just prior to departure. It doesn't help that the mainline flights I take always have had long upgrade lists - my ORD-SNA flight tomorrow already has 20 people on the wait list and I'm sitting at No. 3 with the F cabin booked full, the lists for an SFO-ORD are usually pretty daunting as well.
1. Capacity has declined and for the same capacity, the elimination of wide body domestic flying (at least out of ORD) in favor of A320s/737s or smaller has also reduced the ratio of F/Y seats. I can remember at times in the past, flying 747s ORD-SFO/DEN/LAX and DC-10s to SEA, LAS, and PHL. As far as I can tell, over time those twin aisle flights have dwindled to the point that today, they are all gone. If you had some schedule flexibility and wanted to seek out an easier upgrade, you could schedule towards those flights, now you can't. Even if those seats are replaced with the equivalent single aisle capacity with more frequency, those planes carry a lower percentage of premium seats relative to the planes they replaced. An A319 only has 8 F seats, an A320 12. I look for 757 flights because it has 24 in F, but that plane isn't made anymore and will probably be replaced by 737-9s long term, those have 20 F seats.
2. I don't fly mainline but about 1-2x a month, but my impression is that where I used to have good odds at the gate, I don't anymore. If I haven't cleared before T-24, I'm not going to. Either a GS will get it or United will find a way to sell it for whatever incremental revenue it can get, where before United would hold that seat for a full boat walk up F ticket before giving it away just prior to departure. It doesn't help that the mainline flights I take always have had long upgrade lists - my ORD-SNA flight tomorrow already has 20 people on the wait list and I'm sitting at No. 3 with the F cabin booked full, the lists for an SFO-ORD are usually pretty daunting as well.
#20
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This is tongue in cheek, so take it in the light hearted way it is intended. Bigger route network allows MRs/segment runners more legs that they wouldn't have had before, so instead of using the network for an efficient routing, it allows a few to suck up more upgrades on flights they never would have been on in the past. Yesterday, I worked an ORD-CLE flight and got a call from our connection planner that we were going to be holding a few min for a few connections coming in on a IAH-ORD flight (it made up time and the people were directed quickly to us, so we didn't end up delaying the flight) and my 1st thought was "Aren't there plenty of IAH-CLE non-stop flight options without having to fly thru ORD?!?!"
I think you'd see a lot more pax taking fewer-stop itineraries if it weren't for the CO-style pricing on hub-to-hub travel.
#21
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Shouldn't this thread be merged with the CPU thread?
I mean, I hate mega-threads as much as anybody, but it is what it is. And this is just another thread about CPUs.
I mean, I hate mega-threads as much as anybody, but it is what it is. And this is just another thread about CPUs.
#22
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This is tongue in cheek, so take it in the light hearted way it is intended. Bigger route network allows MRs/segment runners more legs that they wouldn't have had before, so instead of using the network for an efficient routing, it allows a few to suck up more upgrades on flights they never would have been on in the past. Yesterday, I worked an ORD-CLE flight and got a call from our connection planner that we were going to be holding a few min for a few connections coming in on a IAH-ORD flight (it made up time and the people were directed quickly to us, so we didn't end up delaying the flight) and my 1st thought was "Aren't there plenty of IAH-CLE non-stop flight options without having to fly thru ORD?!?!"
As for me, I despise the idea of flying United Express for 2+ hours, let alone 3+ hours. So, I will fly obnoxious routings to avoid flying PIT-IAH/DEN on the E145/CR7/E170/etc. Or, I will fly to IAD/CLE/ORD/EWR to catch a mainline flight for my 3-4 hours flight to the west coast.
As for upgrades, OP, you got one of many rationalizations/factors correct. There is also synergies which results in significantly less F capacity domestically. There is also MMers who gave status to spouse/significant other/family, which inflates the upgrade list. YBM policy. Buy ups. Monetization of F cabin [V/H/Q-UPs]. More paid F/C customers [in the past LH paid F/C customers flying from FRA to OKC could chose between connecting in ORD/DEN onto UA or in IAH onto CO, but now it is just UA which results in more of those customers being funneled through certain hubs]. And a bunch of other reasons.
Last edited by golfingboy; May 14, 2013 at 12:00 pm
#24
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#25
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This is tongue in cheek, so take it in the light hearted way it is intended. Bigger route network allows MRs/segment runners more legs that they wouldn't have had before, so instead of using the network for an efficient routing, it allows a few to suck up more upgrades on flights they never would have been on in the past. Yesterday, I worked an ORD-CLE flight and got a call from our connection planner that we were going to be holding a few min for a few connections coming in on a IAH-ORD flight (it made up time and the people were directed quickly to us, so we didn't end up delaying the flight) and my 1st thought was "Aren't there plenty of IAH-CLE non-stop flight options without having to fly thru ORD?!?!"
#26
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#27
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Location: What I write is my opinion alone..don't read into it anything not written.
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Because many people value their limited free time and choose to spend it with loved ones or orher leisure/productive activities vs sitting with restricted productivity in an aluminum tube? Not everyone mind you, but I would say "a great majority". Time=money either via lost productivity to an employer, or to a person who puts value on their own time. Everyone values time differently, me, I value it at about 1.5x my hourly wage (overtime) which covers straight time plus any benefits I get that are not increased incrementally by working additional (insurance...)
Last edited by fastair; May 14, 2013 at 4:05 pm
#28
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#29
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Maybe .bomb offered the connecting flights cheaper than the nonstops? I know that's not as common today as it was under PMUA, but I do have it happen (and hate it when it's a routing which gives no or marginal extra miles, e.g. SFO-DEN-IAD instead of SFO-IAD, which is a frequent choice .bomb offers me, often at a significant discount over the nonstop).
Connections in non-competitive hub-to-hub markets commonly less expensive. It's a function of very high fares between the markets. Also, keep in mind that in many captive markets, UA requires a 3-night min or Saturday stay. So the fare rules are often advantageous piecing together two (2) flights if you're not able to meet the min stay on the lowest fares. I just priced an IAH-SFO one-way for $660, when an IAH-AUS-SFO was $174.
As for the OP's question, the Y/B/M-Up thing was new to UA in the CO world. So Silvers and Golds buying B fares can now trump 1Ks on an E fare.
Also, with the fare structure issues I just commented on, it's also not uncommon in these high-fare markets to find instant-upgrade fares that are the lowest available.
In IAH-CLE, for example, the lowest one-way fare is often an M fare, which represents an instant-up for Plats and 1Ks. So a GS may have difficulty in a market like that if a lot of Plats and 1Ks buy the lowest possible fare.
Another thing we see more often now than we did with the old UA is F being equal to or cheaper than Y.
#30
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That said, before the merger I never sat in the back. After the merger......I never sit in the back.