I'm probably jinxing myself, but on limited experience, I am 4/6 out of LAX to MSY and AUS.
I have 6 flights booked for the next month though, so we shall see if my luck holds.

I've noticed in the past few weeks that I've gone from being towards the top of the list to clearing regularly. I was 0/4 in January, but have been 4/4 in March. I wonder if it has to do with grace periods finally running out and statuses finally rolling off for some ex-plats and 1K's?

I just cleared two CPUs SFO-LAS, LAS-SFO, in K fare. Both were last flight of the day. Mon/Thu.

This is the first time I've cleared two CPUs on an itinerary since the takeover - in more than two years.

However, these were sUA aircraft.

My CPU rate on sCO aircraft remains solidly at 0% for two years now.

Why do you doubt that there were 4 plats/1K/GS on higher fares? As a 1K I'm often not upgraded -- doesn't seem unlikely that a platinum could experience a similar fate.

IME, just because R>0 and a window has passed doesn't mean that all of the passengers at that level have been upgraded. In fact I've often seen R>0 within 48 hours on flights where I'm still waiting for an upgrade as a 1K.

I have graciously donated my spot in line to those who are captive. My 0 UA miles this year with 40K done for AS... including some AA and DL segments. I am 100% upgraded on AS and 3/4 on DL (as an AS elite!!). Next time I fly UA, I will fly in F with a nice TOD, because I won't have status, so maybe I will get one!

Same here. Under PMUA, absent irrops, being near the top of the list with more seats available than one's position on the list meant you'd get the CPU. I'm upgraded less often today than I was as a 1P flying on all el-cheapo fares several years ago.

I'm baffled by the way that on UA now, I can be 1st on the list at T-3 with 5 seats available, and end up 13th on the list at departure. There's no way that many high-status/high-fare pax checked in that close to departure, or that many F / high Y pax doing a SDC. I know the new SDC policy is more generous than the old PMUA one, but sheesh, most of those folks should have been on fully flexible fares under PMUA and not had to worry about SDC anyway.


Good point; it definitely should balance out across the day if SDC were a significant factor, and IME it does not.

Out of SFO mostly... My rates are same or worse than last year and that's with me moving up from Silver to Gold. (Judging by waitlist length and position)

I have not been playing this game long enough to make any assessment about how things have changed, so take this comment with a grain of salt: to me, it makes pretty good sense that the last-minute purchases are high-level elites on high fares, because those are the people who fly last-minute and the fares that are available at the last minute.

2013 --- 56 out of 58 flights, I've been in the front.
Anything out of SFO to the east coast is an RPU or I don't book it --- Everything else has been CPU friendly!

No complaints from LAS via IAH-DEN-ORD or LAX & onward for Lil Ab!

Not that hard if you look closely. Or look at the manifest for that matter (often showing people devoid of elite status these days)

CPU drops can't all be explained by slightly lowered capacity and V-ups

They could be explained by higher numbers of elites.

2/4 - 2013 as *G out of IAH

Where did the higher # of elites come from? From anecdotal inside sources, there have been defections, not an influx.

2x the # of elites post-merger, sure, but 1.98x the number of planes too, so that's a wash.

But it doesn't explain why the UG list remains static while the available seats are being filled.

For a long time, I have been trying to make sense out of this "higher number of elites" argument. It should be a wash, except for the fact, as you point out, that capacity is lower.

I wonder if somehow the combination is forcing clusters of elites into higher concentrations across certain routes?

For example, UA didn't serve MXP. So, the combination can force all of UA into EWR for the EWR-MXP, thereby increasing elite concentration on that route.

Similarly, UA has a huge range of flights out of SFO to Asia. I don't know CO's old route map, but I'm guessing they were weaker to Asia. So, before the combination, CO flyers would have chosen any airline to get to Asia. Now, all of them are being more aggressively funneled into the SFO to Asia routes.

Do you think dynamics like this are responsible for the disproportionate increase in elite concentrations being discussed here?

The Airbiis are killing me on the routes I fly. Thank goodness for row 7.

I don't know how things have panned out in real numbers. Those, of course, are closely guarded.

Here's my theory for how it would happen, though:

Bob is a guy who is somewhat cheap but likes perks. flies 75,000 miles a year. Before, most of his routes were such that United was cheap and sensible, so he flew 50,000 a year on UA. The remaining 25,000 miles were on Continental, because it was a much more sensible carrier on those routes (in terms of price, connections, etc.), and he couldn't justify flying UA on those routes just for the additional EQM's. So, (I'm botching actual then-existing status names) he was Gold on UA and Silver on CO.

Now, in the post-merger world, he can aggregate all that flying, and the result is that not only does he have higher status, but he uses that higher status on more flights.

Enjoy it while it lasts - those future slimline seats aren't going to be quite so comfy

Exactly - voila, TODs

I like this story. Now let me add to your story.

Bob lives in San Francisco. He now flies 75,000 miles, and finishes 27th on the upgrade list. No more perks for Bob. The end.

The end of what? Does Bob stop flying? If not, who does he fly with? Does he switch to AA so a 1.5 hour flight becomes a 4-7 hour flight with a miserable connection? Now, he's happy because he got upgraded?

Agreed that this is now the case on some int'l routes - TLV/MXP as examples for PMUA flyers, BKK/DXB for PMCO flyers. Yet I don't have any great sense that int'l UG rates are tanking for elites.

It's on the domestic flights that we see the issues - those IAH-based flyers weren't and aren't taking the LGA-ORD flights where I've now missed 3 of my past 4 upgrades on off-peak times.

The key difference? TODs & cheap V-ups are found domestically.

I am laughing so hard at this right now

Everyone complains about not getting upgraded, then when they do thee complain about the product...so why even care about the CPU?

In fairness, I've always had a hard time clearing hub-hub with UA during peak business hours. However, what used to be hard has now become impossible.

No doubt, though, that TODs and cheap V-ups have drastically reduced the number of seats available for UG. And, that's here to stay.

True
 

Having been getting upgraded, mostly once I board the plane. A few times being in the exit row with unlimited legroom, I've passed. Other times, I've been grateful.
CPU's are really nothing special on the equipment that UA uses domestically. Yes you get food. Yes you get free direct tv, but that's about it. Nonetheless, I was always taught to never look a gift horse in the mouth. Thank you United. I"M grateful for my status and when the CPU's come, I"m happy.

Of course - you're not clearing SFO-IAD/BOS on a Mon or Thu w/o an instrument, that's nothing new.

What IS new now is missing on shorter off-peak, non hub-hub routes - what once was a fluke is now SOP it seems.

Out of SFO for me - 0 out of 16 so far. So no. Last year a friend, also a PP got 0 all year. He is also based out of SFO>

That's not all. If you want to know where the FC seats are going, consider this story from February.

I booked 4 friends on economy saver tickets. 4 different reservations. All 4 got upgraded on the domestic leg, at the window. (I have the United card.) Even better? It was an RJ. They occupied 4 of the 6 FC seats, simply because I had the United card and I was a 1K. And because I was smart enough to put them on their own reservations.

Now sure, I should be happy. They are my friends. But c'mon, this sucks. No wonder I never get upgraded anymore!

Not following. They inherited your status b/c you are 1K? Is that new? What role does the card play in this story?

They were on saver economy award tix which are now upgradable if you have the explorer card.

Yes, a long known bug/feature is that award tickets are upgraded solely based on the status (if they have the right credit card0 of the person who booked it.

They key is that they were each upgraded as if they were each separate 1K's with the credit card.

I did a SDC the other day as a 1K and cleared immediately. It was from a hub, where i see lots of movement from flight to flight. I was happy because I was #6 on the list on my original flight.

Now, I dont know the status level of those on the upgrade list, or what the #1 person on the lists status was, but I am sure some of them wondered where that seat went. Of course, the assumtion on FT was that it was TOD. But it wasnt. No way in heck I would pay extra of my own money to sit up front on a midcon.

I got a friend-up once, man, what a pleasant last minute surprise! (I was expecting nothing, because it was a DL flight that UA had rebooked me on after problems with my original flight.)

Someday I'll have the chance to 'pay it forward'.

Uh oh, maybe the world really is coming to an end! :)

How did you get in to F originally? F award ticket, or a miles/cash buy up to F?

I think this is part of the reason F is fuller - I have used miles or an instrument on every flight this year that I wanted to guarantee an F seat on...

This is another reason why 1K MP (and PP really) miles are the most valuable miles! The receiver inherits your status (baggage, security, boarding, upgrade chances if you have the Explorer card).

I always try to use my miles to book tickets for others.

For myself, I either buy a cheap ticket if available, or use miles from my partner or children's accounts.

I am not seeing where in my post I was complaining about the product?

It is just the new reality. CPUs are just much more of a surprise now than years past for some/most, however some of the other fringe benefits still remain and they have real value in my opinion. My post was mostly in jest but what is "the end"? Probably same place I'm at. I'm still going to fly United, just expect very little. I'll take my E+ seat and just move on. For the most part, United has gotten me where I need to be close to when I need to get there. I'll take the devil I know.

The laughing and the complaining were two separate thoughts

I was literally laughing because I loved your story about Bob

I was complaining about this entire thread

I am a "Bronze" elite. Tallying the PQMs for flights I've already flown with those I will earn for paid reservations, the total is 14,444 PQM. I could so easily use my Flex PQMs to be Gold. But why? All I hear anymore is people singing the CPU blues. Why should I bother?

RNE, glad to be off the treadmill.

Understood :D

I think the problem is I've only been an elite for a few years since I graduated from uni so I don't know how good things used to be. It's certainly not as good as pre-merger but E+ is so much more tolerable than E-. Smaller sample size for me maybe.

Im 16/17, the one I missed was a LAS-SFO and it was booked F full at booking (seemed like a group of wealthy italians probably connecting from SFO onward)

wish CDN's were able to get a CC to try for UG's on awards....

Wow, Mitch, you have much to learn..... ;)

Others have explained it quite well. But think about it for a moment..... 4 of 6 seats on a 2 hour RJ went to friends of a 1K with a credit card. Offering CPU's to Premiers on award tickets is nice. Offering them to anyone on Premier miles is just another example of how CO really can't manage SHARES -- I can't believe they actually intend for it to work this way, but they seem powerless to reprogram the logic. There's reason why many airlines outsource this aspect of the operation.

CPUs have been pretty good to me this year. I've only missed two out of 20+ (A319s on PHL-SFO and SFO-LAX). Most flights have cleared at 96 hours (even IAH-DEN on a K fare) and some HNL flights have cleared at 120 hours. :) I managed to get CPUs on several SDCs too.