AMR files for Chapter 11 protection, will UCH follow? (Consolidated thread)
Nov 29, 2011, 6:14 am
#1
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AMR files for Chapter 11 protection, will UCH follow? (Consolidated thread)
Well, we do need one of these threads for everything AA does, right?? 
On a slightly more serious (and relevant) note, I don't think that this actually will have any material effect on UA's operations, though it will be interesting to see just how much UA attacks during the re-org period. Then again, the AA effort is focused almost exclusively on breaking the unions and UA seems to have enough trouble on that front these days so maybe not so much of a need to try to press the issue.
On a slightly more serious (and relevant) note, I don't think that this actually will have any material effect on UA's operations, though it will be interesting to see just how much UA attacks during the re-org period. Then again, the AA effort is focused almost exclusively on breaking the unions and UA seems to have enough trouble on that front these days so maybe not so much of a need to try to press the issue.
Nov 29, 2011, 6:17 am
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UA enjoyed an unnatural cost basis advantage for years as it languished in bankruptcy. Now it's AA's turn.
Nov 29, 2011, 6:32 am
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Nov 29, 2011, 6:49 am
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That's a bit disingenuous as UA's operating costs are not that much lower than AA's. Non-operating costs are lower, but that doesn't really explain the sharp difference in operating income over recent quarters.
Nov 29, 2011, 7:05 am
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Influx of AA Elites due to the AMR bankruptcy?
So, will there be an influx of AA Elites over to MP due to the AMR bankruptcy?
My guess is that some of the AA Elites will be hedging their bets and will be asking UACO for status match. The MP status match desk will be busy in the new year.
But most AA flyers will just carry on as usual, IMO. Let's hope so as we don't need any more competition for our upgrades.
My guess is that some of the AA Elites will be hedging their bets and will be asking UACO for status match. The MP status match desk will be busy in the new year.
But most AA flyers will just carry on as usual, IMO. Let's hope so as we don't need any more competition for our upgrades.
Nov 29, 2011, 7:21 am
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So, will there be an influx of AA Elites over to MP due to the AMR bankruptcy?
My guess is that some of the AA Elites will be hedging their bets and will be asking UACO for status match. The MP status match desk will be busy in the new year.
But most AA flyers will just carry on as usual, IMO. Let's hope so as we don't need any more competition for our upgrades.
My guess is that some of the AA Elites will be hedging their bets and will be asking UACO for status match. The MP status match desk will be busy in the new year.
But most AA flyers will just carry on as usual, IMO. Let's hope so as we don't need any more competition for our upgrades.
Ch. 11 allows for court protection during restructuring.
Normal operations continue for AMR.
AAdvantage is not affected. In fact, it's one of AMR's biggest money makers.
There may be some changes down the line when AMR emerges from Chapter 11.
Nov 29, 2011, 7:28 am
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Finally they joined the club. Of all the major legacy carriers, AA was the only one that hadn't previously filed for bankruptcy protection.
I think it's:
UA (1)
US (2)
DL (1)
CO (2)
and now AA (1)
I think it's:
UA (1)
US (2)
DL (1)
CO (2)
and now AA (1)
Nov 29, 2011, 7:32 am
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On balance, I would think this would be a good time for AA elites. Bookings will drop because of the uncertainty and I'm sure that AA will counter with all sorts of incentives for travel. The more interesting questions for this board will be, first, whether UA will counter and, second, whether attractive offers by AA will make us defect.
Nov 29, 2011, 7:36 am
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On one hand, I'm looking forward to promos UA may run in 2012 to try to grab market share from AA. On the other hand, capacity being where it is right now, I'm not looking forward to a DEQM-driven elite surge...
Nov 29, 2011, 8:32 am
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On balance, I would think this would be a good time for AA elites. Bookings will drop because of the uncertainty and I'm sure that AA will counter with all sorts of incentives for travel. The more interesting questions for this board will be, first, whether UA will counter and, second, whether attractive offers by AA will make us defect.
Nov 29, 2011, 8:49 am
#15
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I may be the only one but I'm betting against a huge fire sale. AA isn't going debtor-in-possession on the filing and they do not have a need to generate a large stack of short-term cash; they have a decent balance right now. Beyond that, the advance booking curve in the industry is shrinking anyways so I doubt the perceived uncertainty is going to have a significant effect.
If they start to have troubles with the union negotiations and things start to draw out on that front then maybe things will get ugly, but in the interim I don't see it.
If they start to have troubles with the union negotiations and things start to draw out on that front then maybe things will get ugly, but in the interim I don't see it.