|
Survey: Effect of Rumored MP Changes on your 2012 flying patterns
Purpose: To identify, in a pseudo-scientific manner, the changes that matter most to United frequent fliers and the potential for changes in 2012 spending behavior. Basically, it's difficult to read 1000 posts and get a snapshot of what people think; this survey makes the numbers a little easier to crunch.
Survey link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...ZTFYRVFHbHc6MQ I'm not associated with UACO in any way. I do intend to publish the results after we get enough responses to do some basic analysis. Feel free to reply to this thread to suggest survey improvements! Update 8/17: Preliminary results posted (please take survey before viewing): http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/16937741-post7.html |
Thanks for the 80 responses so far. When we get to 100, I'll run some numbers and publish a summary.
|
M fares were rumored to be eligible for instant upgrades for Diamonds. Just sayin...
|
There would probably be more willing to participate if there wasn't the threat of our FT handle being published with our responses. I KNOW CO/UA knows who I am. They know who you are if you've been to a CO DO or a Star Mega DO as I have. I do understand that you want to prevent certain people from putting in bogus responses and that asking us to put our FT handle in reduces this.
|
What I have noticed so far is that in the past I could always get a MSP to BDL R/T for 25K miles, now they are almost all 50K miles even booking 330 days out. If this is going to be the new standard I'm done with UA
|
Originally Posted by flyer4512
(Post 16937041)
What I have noticed so far is that in the past I could always get a MSP to BDL R/T for 25K miles, now they are almost all 50K miles even booking 330 days out. If this is going to be the new standard I'm done with UA
|
Current Results
As promised, here are the results after 118 respondents. If you haven't yet taken the survey yet, please do so here before viewing the results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...ZTFYRVFHbHc6MQ
I'm setting the data free, with usernames stripped out but anonymous responses marked as such: https://anonfiles.com/cdn/1313560341656.xls Please feel free to perform your own analysis and share your conclusions! A few points to remember: 1. This is a heavily self-selected sample set. 2. We are at the mercy of respondents to answer honestly. In the summary results below, I have not "sanitized" any suspicious data. 3. The survey questions were based on rumored information. The results may or may not have any basis in reality. As a mini-calibration, I inserted the questions about renaming 1K/1P/2P to Diamond/Plat/Gold/Silver (nobody should care much about this). 4. Sample size: 8 GS, 70 1K, 27 1P, 13 2P, all self-identified. 5. The "overall" averages are simple arithmetic means across all participants, not weighted. First, the measures that might be the most meaningful: relative impact of each major change compared against the others. This set of questions asked participants to rate each of the 6 changes on a scale of 0-10 in relation to each other. I am including below the average deviance from mean for each participant (e.g. if I answer 10, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, the average of my responses is (10+2)/6=2, so the deviances are +8, 0, -2, -2, -2, -2). Average of Relative Impact (Distance from Mean): UACO REVENUE REQUIREMENT FOR ELITE QUALIFICATION +2.27 Overall +1.69 GS +2.47 1K +2.02 1P +2.10 2P Average of Relative Impact (Distance from Mean): REDUCTION OF 100% REDEEMABLE MILE BONUS FOR GOLD/SILVER +0.89 Overall +0.44 GS +0.40 1K +2.43 1P +0.63 2P Note: I actually phrased this question incorrectly to include "Silver" in the survey. Luckily, the 2Ps didn't seem to get confused. Average of Relative Impact (Distance from Mean): CHANGE IN UPGRADE PRIORITY TO BENEFIT MILES+COPAY AND FULL FARES +1.70 Overall +2.19 GS +2.51 1K +0.61 1P -0.75 2P Average of Relative Impact (Distance from Mean): ECONOMY PLUS SEATING FOR SILVER ONLY AT 24HR -1.06 Overall -2.56 GS -2.04 1K -0.13 1P +3.25 2P Average of Relative Impact (Distance from Mean): NO INSTANT UPGRADE ON M FARES FOR DIAMOND -1.79 Overall +0.06 GS -1.62 1K -2.24 1P -2.98 2P Average of Relative Impact (Distance from Mean): CHANGE IN ELITE STATUS LEVEL NAMES -2.47 Overall -1.81 GS -2.24 1K -3.05 1P -2.90 2P What immediately comes to mind when looking at the above results? 1. Participants generally care most about revenue requirement for status qualification and upgrade priority, relative to the other changes. Participants generally care least about the name change. Pretty predictable, but good to have some numbers. 2. Across current status levels, participants consistently place emphasis on revenue requirements for qualification. Across current status levels, participants consistently don't give a hoot about elite level renaming. 3. More than any of the other changes, 1P's care about the reduction in RDM bonus 100%>50%. 1P's are also the only population that cares about this change significantly more than the other changes. 4. More than any of the other changes, GS and 1K care more about the upgrade priority change. GS/1K are the only population that cares about this change significantly more than the other changes. It's a little surprising to see this answer for GS, since they are exempt from the rumored change. 5. More than any of the other changes, 2P's care about the removal of E+ seat selection for Silvers. 2P's are the only population that cares about this change more than the other changes. 6. Only GS seem to care (marginally) about the M-up. Now, moving onto the question of projected change in 2012 spending... Based on the responses, the 118 UA elite participants would divert about $900,000 of spending away from United in 2012 if the rumored changes are true. There were 5 answers of "-$50000 or more" and 1 answer of "+$50000 or more. If we ignore these extreme responses, 112 respondents said they would spend $700,000 less on United, or about $6000 per respondent. I'm not going to post the summary results of the other questions in the interest of time -- please feel free to post your own summary/analysis using the spreadsheet data. Other observations: 1. 1K's take the most paid trips on UACO and also spend a greater proportion of their airfare on UACO. 2. In absolute terms, the only average answers of < 5.00 for the absolute impact questions (indicating a higher likelihood of flying UACO based on the change) were: GS due to elite revenue requirement, GS due to removal of E+ seat assignments for Silvers, and GS due to renaming of elite levels. No other elite population indicated that they are more likely to fly UACO in 2012 due to any of the rumored changes. 3. Interesting anomaly: 1P respondents reported higher percentage of business vs. overall spending (48%) than 1K's (44%). Again, please feel free to download the data and post your own conclusions: https://anonfiles.com/cdn/1313560341656.xls Comments? Questions? Observations? |
Speaking of comments, here are the uncensored comments so far. Sorry that I haven't had time to take any of these comments into account for data analysis so far.
I was seriously considering switching to DL even without proposed changes! Even with some of the changes discussed, it would be no brainer for me - I would leave 100%. #1 Priority: I'm 0.75MM with UA. If the program will not allow me to reach *G at 1MM BIS as I expected when I started out with UA, then I'm likely to become a "cheapest fare on expedia.com" kind of guy. #2 Priority: Integrity of SWUs "anonymous because UACO knows me and my FT handle. bottom line -- upgrades by fare before status would hurt me. everything else won't impact me significantly." "Because of difficulty finding upgrade space on UA's popular transpacific routes in the recent past, I have shifted that spend to the most inexpensive Star Alliance C flights. With the proposed change of prioritizing miles and copay higher, I may now be more likely to roll the dice with UA and see if I get the upgrade (this is particularly for SFO-HKG), especially since the spend will ensure I get Gold status. However, if I see upgrades are still tough to come by with this scheme, that will be one less reason for me to stick with UA over the long haul. I only take this route a little more than once a year on average, but my Asia trips represent half my spend. This new scheme will give an opportunity to get my Asia business back more consistently, but lack of upgrade space could push me away more, when also taking in account I will only receive a 50% RDM bonus going forward anyways." Changes may make me give up 1K and settle for "Gold"--depending on changes to MM Program Current 1P but will be 1K in 2012. The projected differences are based on the assumption that I would be able to attempt (and complete) an AA EXP Challenge. E+ is the biggest deal. Revenue requirement is next. For non-US based flyers these rumoured changes are really bad as we cannot fly the new UA domestically, and therefore meeting the revenue requirements is pushing EU based flyers away and seem not be to considered relevant anymore. I'll prefer to fly Skyteam again, which is easier in any case since AMS is not very *StarAlliance in any case. hub captive "I have been a UA customer for well over 20 years and have been a 1K continuously for the past 10 years. During this time, I have gone out of my way to book ALL of my flights on UA, even in situations in which UA cost considerably more than the competition, a not infrequent occurrence. I'm currently within one year of achieving TWO million mile status, I'm already Star Gold for life and all of my travel is discretionary. I have never undertaken a mileage run and will requalify for 1K this year by early September. When that happens, I will have 12 unused SWUs at my disposal. Based on the rumors thus far, I will not book another revenue trip for this year or next. What happens next depends on what UA reveals when they announce the official Mileage Plus changes next month. If their new Mileage Plus scheme is anything even remotely like what was recently leaked, that will put an end to my future purchases with this airline. In the future, I'll undertake a couple of international trips each year using miles and will book the cheapest fare available on ANY airline for my domestic travels. Coupled with the recent spate of service diminutions for an already subpar F and C product, I have had enough. I am losing all faith in this airline and chasing status on UA is just not worth it to me any more. Upon reflection, its almost a relief. plus I'll end each year with a lot more money in my pocket than if I continued to be loyal to this sad shadow of what was once my favorite airline." I love the revenue component and all of the other changes. It's about time those who pay a lot are considered over those who fly a lot at bottom dollar. I represent a group that travels internationally and they travel with me. I think it would be important to ask about MM status. I know that the rumors didn't include that, but for those who are current MM with UA, it would be interesting to understand the impact. I will take my int'l travel to NZ and LH and will purchase the cheapest fare on JetBlue, Frontier or UA...no more loyalty!! "If status goes to revenue, we'll stop flying. If upgrades are no longer based on status, we'll stop flying. At least we'll save a bunch of money... Note that I'm only going based on what's printed in this survey. The signal-to-noise ratio in the FT thread is too low, and I'm not about to read it." If the changes go through, I'll switch most or all of my flying to AA. If AA duplicates the changes, I'll switch to JetBlue and/or Virgin America for domestic travel and to foreign carriers for my international travel, which is almost exclusively business class. If these rumors are tru, I will be looking at option, in fact I am already. I'm an AA PLT. I'll focus my flying with them in 2012 if the revenue change (esp. if Type B vouchers don't count towards it) goes through. I'm flying AA in 2012. I'm done with Jeff & COdbaUA. I'm to concerned about the silvers sorry. I will always qualify for 1k if continue to fly UA. I'm most concerned about upgrade priority. Some flights I fly are full fare while others aren't. I don't purposely pay full price unless I have to. That being said when I do fly on a lower fare I don't appreciate a silver jumping ahead of me for an upgrade on their limited travel. Increased spending only because of fare price inflation. Its no fun as an UACO elite now and these changes would only make matters worse. Me and my wife both fly Ua for leisure and we both are in grad school getting our Ph.Ds. If the rumored changes are to be coming true, I will cease flying united and move to Delta where I have gold status. We both buy some occasional Z fares to Asia, but cannot compete on a daily basis on our transcons with business travelers who are flying using company money. Besides that, since we are a university we can only buy the cheapest economy fare for conferences. I have spent over 13K on airfare this year on United, but if I am only treated based on my fare class for the day, then I will take all of that business elsewhere. My status varies from year to year, lately trending downward. If Premier/Silver can't select E+ at time of booking, I have ZERO incentive to fly UA. A lot of us have to split our flying, and I would likely consolidate on AA. No Comments Relative Impact question (description) wording is a bit confusing. SWU devaluation is main concern THANKS FOR POSTING THIS SURVEY, JOB WELL DONE! "The program makes no sense economically and actually alienates not only elites but also higher paying customers by rewarding non-elites who buy upgrades instead of full fare First or Business. The reduced bonus for 1P's and low upgrade status makes being in the program pointless. Better to shop around for lowest fare possible and buy upgrades when wanted. Overall, that would mean less money going to United and possibly less money spent total. " This is amazing. No more kettles or mileage runners in F While I am not impacted by the current revenue requirements, they do provide UACO with the option to consistently increase those requirements, once the basic model is in place. My concern is that they would do just that. The change in upgrade priority is very disconcerting: spend on a single ticket > loyalty and spend on many, many tickets. No bueno. Why spend more than $20K--that get's you Diamond and a bunch of SWUs whose value is nearly worthless under rumored changes. Would abandon UA if any of these changes affecting 1Ps were adopted |
Originally Posted by double_black77
(Post 16937739)
+1. That was the reason I left DL.
|
Survey seems to be worded oddly. For example, for someone who only flies UA/CO, responses of 1,2,3,4,5 all mean the same thing.
Also, the "reduction of 100% for gold" could be taken wrongly to mean *G. |
Appreciate the comments.
Originally Posted by bmvaughn
(Post 16943406)
Survey seems to be worded oddly. For example, for someone who only flies UA/CO, responses of 1,2,3,4,5 all mean the same thing.
Originally Posted by bmvaughn
(Post 16943406)
Also, the "reduction of 100% for gold" could be taken wrongly to mean *G.
|
Originally Posted by flyer4512
(Post 16937041)
What I have noticed so far is that in the past I could always get a MSP to BDL R/T for 25K miles, now they are almost all 50K miles even booking 330 days out. If this is going to be the new standard I'm done with UA
This is a much bigger problem for us than the revenue-based requirements of the rumored new MileagePlus scheme. |
Originally Posted by beethovengirl
(Post 16944198)
Yeah, I'm having trouble finding Saver awards too. My husband is a 1P, and we use his UA miles to book Saver awards for me so I can accompany him on some of his business trips. If Saver awards disappear, we're going to have to look into other airlines.
This is a much bigger problem for us than the revenue-based requirements of the rumored new MileagePlus scheme. Same here, I am hoping it's just an issue because of the merger as every flight I look for in the spring of 2012 is 50K. I can see an increase but 100% ? I was able to get a 25K flight for Memorial day but I had to book one way flights into and out of different airports. I did see I can still us 24K points for a $300/night hotel in Florida so unless they up those rewards also I might go that route. Do you know when the merger is final ? |
Originally Posted by flyer4512
(Post 16944252)
Same here, I am hoping it's just an issue because of the merger as every flight I look for in the spring of 2012 is 50K. I can see an increase but 100% ?
I was able to get a 25K flight for Memorial day but I had to book one way flights into and out of different airports. I did see I can still us 24K points for a $300/night hotel in Florida so unless they up those rewards also I might go that route. Do you know when the merger is final ? 11/11/2011 for the single operating certificate But, could all be just rumor. But hear it sort of consistant lately... |
Current results after 177 respondents: https://anonfiles.com/cdn/1313691571477.xls
Haven't had a chance to do the analysis yet. Take this with a very large grain of salt since this is self-reported anticipated behavior based on a hypothetical scenario, but the revenue impact is at about $1.4 million right now. Granted, that's still less than 0.005% of UAL's annual revenue. |
| All times are GMT -6. The time now is 9:34 am. |
This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.