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Old May 26, 2023, 9:21 am
  #2056  
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Originally Posted by fumje
Hmm, I don't think I'd hang determination of "good deal" / "bad deal" on retrospectively determined opportunity cost, but anyway that was exactly my point: it's not like one party is laughing all the way to the bank here. The flight pass is giving a nice benefit now, but UA got a bunch of cash up front, when amortized it's still quite a bit per year, and there was every possibility UA ceased to exist in these intervening years and it all would have come to an end.
Agreed that Tom took significant risk here.

How prominent of an airline was United in 1990?
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Old May 26, 2023, 9:45 am
  #2057  
 
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Originally Posted by fumje
Hmm, I don't think I'd hang determination of "good deal" / "bad deal" on retrospectively determined opportunity cost, but anyway that was exactly my point: it's not like one party is laughing all the way to the bank here. The flight pass is giving a nice benefit now, but UA got a bunch of cash up front, when amortized it's still quite a bit per year, and there was every possibility UA ceased to exist in these intervening years and it all would have come to an end.
It's a pretty objective measure though. If the value he has extracted from the $500k ticket was less than what he could have made elsewhere, it's a bad deal. In 1990 the US treasury was yielding around 8% on a 30 year note. That would have gotten him about $5M on his $500k investment and can be considered the low end of the investment spectrum (i.e. the risk-free rate). Has he gotten $5M of value from his ticket in the 33 years he's owned it? Maybe - that would equate to about $150k of spend each year, which certainly seems doable.

Has he gotten $14M of value from the ticket? That seems like much more of a stretch - he would have had to spend over $400k per year. That would only really be possible if he flew international J multiple times per week - which maybe he has? But seems unlikely to me.
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Old May 26, 2023, 10:03 am
  #2058  
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Originally Posted by josephstern
Agreed that Tom took significant risk here.

How prominent of an airline was United in 1990?
Yep. And I wonder, if the UA/CO merger had taken the name Continental, or some other new name, whether the flight pass would have been still good. One would hope so, but who knows what the T&C say.

Originally Posted by Seph87
Has he gotten $14M of value from the ticket? That seems like much more of a stretch - he would have had to spend over $400k per year. That would only really be possible if he flew international J multiple times per week - which maybe he has? But seems unlikely to me.
You also need to consider the value of the RDMs he is apparently being given just for flying. If he's handing out free trips left and right, that's worth a lot too.
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Old May 26, 2023, 8:46 pm
  #2059  
 
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Originally Posted by Seph87
It's a pretty bad deal IMO. You are missing in your analysis the opportunity cost of investing that money elsewhere. If he had put that $500k in the NASDAQ in 1990, it would be worth about $14M today. Even a more conservative investment like a bond fund would have yielded multiple millions of dollars by now. He's basically given UA an incredibly low-interest loan.
Agreed... and missing the opportunity to fly on the newer, much better airlines that have emerged since 1990 (I know you still can, but it would feel like a "bad deal" to pay for tickets elsewhere).
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Old May 27, 2023, 5:12 am
  #2060  
 
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Originally Posted by nnn
Yep. And I wonder, if the UA/CO merger had taken the name Continental, or some other new name, whether the flight pass would have been still good.
Even before the merger, it could easily have been just another unsecured debt of UA's in the bankruptcy and been discharged.
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Old May 27, 2023, 10:42 am
  #2061  
 
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Originally Posted by ryman554
"Tom Stucker, please report back to security at terminal XX"

I hope you got back what you forgot! And I hope UA sent a GS agent instead!
No “ C” please. And what did I forget this time? Lol.
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Old May 27, 2023, 11:01 am
  #2062  
 
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A Good investment.

All the details will come out in the book. It was 510,000 to be exact. Was it a risk? Hell yeah. But that’s been my life in a nutshell( again more details in the book. And for the record I don’t fly for free . Tickets are paid for from a fund / annuity etc. if you include the tickers/ flight miles when adding my companion it would be getting close to 29,000 flights/tickets . I’ve earned over 100 million redeemable miles, and the government paid for 40percent of the 510K as I write it all off in my first 3 years. Yes, United treats me extremely well , always has., because it’s total class. I’ve maid a lot of poor choices over the years( again the book) . This was not one of them. If I had to do it all over again , I would do it in a heart beat, no doubt at all. We can all play should have could have would have with our spending/ investments over the years. Hell I lost a half million on a home I bought . My 2 divorces cost me fortunes . In the big picture the 510K was nothing! I’ve been able to share the world with my family and close friends. Experiences they couldn’t afford and are now and will continue to be indelible lifetime memories!! Investment? A better word is Priceless!!!! Just sayin
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Old May 27, 2023, 11:13 am
  #2063  
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Originally Posted by ua1flyer
A better word is Priceless!
I guess you predated MasterCard by a few years on that word.
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Old May 27, 2023, 12:42 pm
  #2064  
 
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Originally Posted by mahasamatman
I guess you predated MasterCard by a few years on that word.
+1 - and if there was ever anyone meant to fly this many miles it’s Tom - it’s hard to explain the joy he truly gets up in the air - we will see if he chose my title for the book - but to Tom the journey really is the point! $500k is nothing!
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Old May 28, 2023, 5:58 am
  #2065  
 
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Originally Posted by bmwe92fan
+1 - and if there was ever anyone meant to fly this many miles it’s Tom - it’s hard to explain the joy he truly gets up in the air - we will see if he chose my title for the book - but to Tom the journey really is the point! $500k is nothing!
I have never met Tom, beyond what I have read here in bits and pieces I really don't know much about him.

With that said, I would have to imagine that he would have to love flying/travel to accumulate as many miles as he has regardless of how he paid for those miles.

Slightly off-topic, but I noticed your username, I have an E60 M5 and I absolutely love the car to death.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; May 28, 2023 at 11:20 am Reason: Removed query by Moderator note
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Old May 28, 2023, 9:02 am
  #2066  
 
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Originally Posted by kmersh
I have never met Tom, beyond what I have read here in bits and pieces I really don't know much about him.

With that said, I would have to imagine that he would have to love flying/travel to accumulate as many miles as he has regardless of how he paid for those miles.

Slightly off-topic, but I noticed your username, I have an E60 M5 and I absolutely love the car to death.
Tom is a very positive man…

I had an E60 M5 - that thing was a beast!
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Last edited by WineCountryUA; May 28, 2023 at 11:21 am Reason: removed response to deleted content
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Old May 28, 2023, 11:19 am
  #2067  
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While there is a temptation, to analyze, to discuss Tom in the third party -- but since Tom is a regular, you can ask Tom a question and he can chose to answer or not. But let Tom be the one to characterize himself. Too easy to slip into inappropriate discussion otherwise.

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Old Jun 1, 2023, 4:41 pm
  #2068  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
While there is a temptation, to analyze, to discuss Tom in the third party -- but since Tom is a regular, you can ask Tom a question and he can chose to answer or not. But let Tom be the one to characterize himself. Too easy to slip into inappropriate discussion otherwise.

WineCountryUA
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thank you
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Old Jun 1, 2023, 6:31 pm
  #2069  
 
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Tom, we are all waiting for the book --- is there anything individuals here can do to help?
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Old Jun 1, 2023, 8:58 pm
  #2070  
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Originally Posted by josephstern
Agreed that Tom took significant risk here.

How prominent of an airline was United in 1990?
I agree, he did take a calculated gamble. United, like many before it, could have vanished in short order.
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