Local lockdowns in the UK
#8867
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: London
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With the majority of (a large number) of people having mild Covid with Omicron is there now a growing dis-connect between the reported deaths after positive test and the deaths of some-one who actually dies due to Covid?
Sorry, not sure i explained the question very well!
Sorry, not sure i explained the question very well!
#8868
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
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To be considered boostered, I would need another 2 (!) doses of MRNA on top of this. It's relevant as, at the moment, people considered boostered don't need to show a negative test for various activities of daily life.
I'm really dreading future travel restrictions/requirements around having to be boostered.
I'm really dreading future travel restrictions/requirements around having to be boostered.
#8869
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
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And the answer is that dying with COVID isn't a lot different that dying of COVID. It's a very difficult area and there are guidelines, but the test I tend to make is that if there was zero Omicron around, would these people have death deferred to a later date. And it's a plain fact that after something like 50 years of improvements to longevity we have now had 2 years of reduced longevity, and if the current trend continues, a third year of deterioration. For females there hasn't been much change, it's flatlining rather than improving, for men the reduction is pretty stark, we have regressed to about 2012 - and of course those charts upthread from ICARN make that point rather strongly in terms of risk for the male gender. I don't have anything more than a gut feel for this but I suspect that Omicron for the unvaccinated is actually pretty much as deadly as Alpha. Calling Omicron a cold, or like a cold is somewhat misleading. We will know more in about 2 weeks, particularly in comparison with other countries, where the demography of vaccination is different to the UK.
#8870
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: London
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Posts: 800
The jump in recorded covid deaths to 400 per day looks scary, but it doesn't seem to reflect that omicron is milder, and presumably is itself causing less serious illness, as reflected in the ICU figures?.
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#8871
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Bristol
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Seems quite telling that ICU numbers are falling even when hospitalisation and deaths are (with the delay) rising, and despite huge case numbers.
#8872
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It's causing just as much serious illness by the ICU figures, since there is one group that dominates critical care. ICU is mainly the unvaccinated younger people now, it can't be compared to a year ago since then the median age was 70, now the median age is 50 (and younger still for men). ICU is now about 70% unvaccinated compared to 8% adult population unvaccinated. About 650 people - out of 780 - are in ICU right now who should not be there. The very elderiy and frail don't go to ICU, ICU is typically not going to save their lives, and Omicron can be fatal for these people. For those unvaccinated, very old, immuno-suppresed or on one vaccine taken more than 6 months ago, Omicron is not to my mind milder, there are a lot of people in these groups and frankly, Omicron is a killer.
#8873
Join Date: Jan 2003
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Bearing in mind people can be in hospital for weeks, is the breakdown of deaths between outgoing Delta and dominant Omicron understood (or even sufficiently recorded)? Who is dying right now? Is this still a malady of the very frail and the unvaccinated?
#8874
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OK, CWS already said the same thing. But better
Last edited by IAN-UK; Jan 12, 2022 at 6:08 pm
#8875
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,218
88% of deaths in the 40-59 age bracket are unvaccinated. Half of the deaths in the 60-79 cohort are unvaccinated, and 36% in the 80+ cohort. Mind you, the overall % of unvaccinated people in these 3 age brackets are approx. 11% in the 40-59 range, approx 7% in the 60-79 and 4% in the 80+. So, bottom line, although only 11% of 40-59s aren't vaccinated, they account for 88% of Covid deaths.
#8876
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 376
Are the UK cases vastly underestimated in the last 30 days, like by a factor of 15 or 20? Did half of the UK population really get Omicron? I'm a bit skeptical. I can't figure out why WHO thinks half of Europe will get Omicron.
#8877
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Kent, UK
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Posts: 3,649
The official statistics will always understate the number of cases, but not by 15-20 times. The ONS provides data on current infection levels. In the week up to 6th January they estimated 1/15 people in England would test positive. It is not hard to see how a few weeks at those levels gets to a very high overall figure. Saying half of Europe will get omicron is just a guess by the WHO.
#8878
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
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So that instiute has projected that ICU beds needed in the UK on 11 January was 4289, with CI giving a range of 2492 to 8510 beds. The actual usage was 793 beds. The projection continues to suggest that we will need 5720 beds by the peak date of 22 January - well we simply don't have that many beds anyway, and the CWS forecast is that it will be 740 beds on that date. So somewhat different. Now to be fair they did project that the UK would hit Peak Omicron on 4 January with 1.4 million cases, and that seems about right to me (200k cases x 7 days). Looking at it from a distance it seems they are using USA levels of public health implementations, rather than what actually happens in the UK, where social interaction is actually sharply down on a typical January. Incidentally that projection suggest the UK case rate will be about half of that peak on 23 January.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...est=infections
#8879
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Kent, UK
Programs: M&S Elite+
Posts: 3,649
Self-isolation time cut to 'five full days' in England
The length of time people who have tested positive for Covid must isolate for is being cut to five full days in England from Monday, Health Secretary Sajid Javid announces.
Currently people have to self-isolate for at least seven days but are able to stop isolating if they return two negative lateral flow tests on days six and seven.
From Monday with two negative tests people can leave isolation at the start of day six, he says.
Currently people have to self-isolate for at least seven days but are able to stop isolating if they return two negative lateral flow tests on days six and seven.
From Monday with two negative tests people can leave isolation at the start of day six, he says.
#8880
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The reduction in self isolation time will also apply to those travelling who get a positive day2 post arrival test result. In reality, quite a few people will show positive Laterals on day4, so I think this is more of a 6 day move than 5 days. There are some shifting sands here, since in theory far fewer people will be taking PCRs, so their date of infection will be one day earlier.
Last edited by corporate-wage-slave; Jan 13, 2022 at 5:48 am