KARFA

that wasn’t really my point - but you seem desperate to dismiss a months worth of data from South Africa.

DaveS

Daily data:

Cases 90,629 (59,610 last Tuesday)
Deaths 172 (150)
Patients admitted 847 (793 on the 10th)
Patients in hospital 7,801 (7,695 on the 13th)
Patients in ventilation beds 859 (900 on the 13th)
People vaccinated up to and including 20 December 2021:
First dose: 51,537,827
Second dose: 47,102,814
Booster: 29,876,223

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 63.1% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 0.9%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 115.4 today.

fransknorge

No I am not, I do not, and I keep explaining why.

13901

I’m the kind of guy who would find a silver lining even in a tornado, and I’m trying to find one here too.

If Omicron’s really milder than the previous versions…
If, when one is vaccinated and boosted, the infection is mild (“flu-like”)…

…then this could lead us to the first step in “normalising” Covid and, dare I say it, live with it. Much like, back in the day, people still came to work with the sniffles (unless it was the near-death experience known as man flu) then we might be doing the same for Covid.

I might be jumping the gun by a lot, here, and I’m not for a moment suggesting we ought to start going to work when positive now. Or in a month. But, eventually, at some point, we will need to. Because there’s way too many mor… idio… cret… ehm free-spirited people who will reject the vaccination and this thing will continue doing the rounds.

HGOLI

Thought I'd report on my reactiion as others have done, to my booster.

Female, mid 50's, 2 AZ, last one in mid June. Yesterday Moderna. 18 hours later, (during the night) got the shivers and sore heavy arm, and felt floored today, slight fever, aches, tiredness etc. Actually had to go to bed!

AZ gave me a headache but haven't experienced any significant headache with Moderna. Booster is already showing on the NHS pass.

Internaut

I think the Prime Minister’s announcement of no further restrictions before Christmas is his second big COVID gamble of the year. His first, opening up in July, appeared to be paying off handsomely before Omicron hit. This new gamble might also pay off though, as with the first, I’m not terribly optimistic. We still still know too little about pathogenicity in the UK or what the breakdown of hospitalisation is between triply, doubly, singly and not vaccinated.

I’m not too concerned about the none vaccinated, especially the outright refuseniks. If they do end up in ICU, the best we can do is treat them as humanely as resources permit. If fully vaccinated people are turning up in ICU in numbers, while clinical staff are reducing in numbers for the same reason, then I think we have a problem, a lockdown, and probably the end of the current Prime Minister* and all the unknowns that go with it.

* Can’t stand the man myself but I’m very careful with what I wish for.

Kgmm77

Recent experience would indicate that, amongst the Prime Minister’s own colleagues at any rate, the death rate is materially less injurious to his future standing than the idea of “excessive” restrictions like mask wearing, social distancing, pub opening hours and suchlike….

nk15

Many governments seem reluctant to put too many restrictions on Christmas, it is a concession they make, but after the 27th it will be a different story, after anxiety and reality start setting in...

DaveS

We will have more data available by then. What happens at that point will depend on what happens in the next few days. I do note that it has taken us two weeks to move from an average of 48,000 cases per day to the current 88,000. It is hard to reconcile this with the predictions of doubling cases every 2.5 or 2 days. If the stats continue to look not too bad then it will he tough justifying restrictions to the hesitant ministers and MP's.

flashware

I would expect this week to be quieter, lots of Christmas parties held last week. One that I went to, the 5 people who were immediately sitting next to / across from me have all tested +ve in the last 24-48 hours. Roll on....

fransknorge

Yes it is sort of plateauing apparently. Although there are large regional disparity. The positivity rate is the interesting stat to follow. It went up a fair bit in London but stable everywhere else.

Dan1113

I also think there will be a certain percentage of people who would rather suffer through it (or simply be blissfully unaware) and spread it than isolate over Christmas, compared to a normal week when you get 10 days off work in their eyes. So I imagine this leads to fewer tests, particularly in people doing asymptotic lateral flow ones.
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corporate-wage-slave

Actually it largely remains a disease of those aged 5 to 25 years old (thankfully, at least in some respects). So the fact that schools and colleges are now closed for Christmas probably has a far bigger impact.

But it is a fact that the picture is quite varied throughout the UK that it's actually quite difficult to use UK stats to get a feel for this For example in the North East, Omicron isn't much established yet, most cases are Delta and in many places case rates are fallling. So that is dampening down the rise in London, which Omicron is now dominant, vaccinations are the lowest in the UK. But yes, even within Omicron I think my original post suggesting a 3 to 5 day doubling period is probably more accurate than 2 day doubling. And there is always a ceiling, what goes up will come down.

DaveS

Yes, there must be a temptation to put anything down as a cold so that you do not have to hide for Christmas. The number of tests is currently very high and has not reduced. I guess that may drop a bit now all the schools are off, but no sign of that yet. Not sure how many would want to test on Christmas day either...

Internaut

Breaking.. Manchester Evening News reports self isolation period reduced from ten days to seven. This could be a game changer in terms of hospital staff availability (my big concern with Omicron).

In other news.., My sister took a lateral flow a few hours ago; positive. Once PCR confirmation comes through, she will be taking considerable pleasure filling in test and trace with all the maskless morons she has to work with closely at a further education college.