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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Oct 15, 2020, 6:45 pm
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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Dec 20, 2021, 11:09 am
  #8356  
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Originally Posted by TSE
The NHS website says (my bolding):
I rebooked my booster at 27 days after the positive PCR test but more than 28 days after symptoms (or sympton in my case) started. This is about a week before I am due to leave the country (assuming not still positive with a PCR). So I would still have time to find a walk-in booster clinic over Christmas if they went by the PCR date but would prefer the booked slot if possible.
I go by the date the PCR. Some people still won't get tested for various reasons (and my own PCRs are now held up in a PCR processing backlog), hence the other option. Particularly true of children it seems. Anyway I personally would send you away on day 27. Clinics are working over Christmas, we will be working on Christmas Day, Boxing Day and New Year's Day too, so you should be able to find a slot on day 28.
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Old Dec 20, 2021, 1:09 pm
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London was at around 200 admissions/day one year ago too (mid-December). However, the ICU tally was higher last year (370 vs 200-ish now).

It'd be interesting to know how many of those in hospital are vaccinated and how many aren't. I don't think gov.uk has that data.

Originally Posted by nk15
Sounds like you came close to a Step 2 lockdown, but averted for now....
I really hope not. The last "holiday ban" costed me my job last time. Make it compulsory to be vaccinated. Enforce masks. But keep kids in schools and travel open.
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Old Dec 20, 2021, 1:57 pm
  #8358  
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
I go by the date the PCR. Some people still won't get tested for various reasons (and my own PCRs are now held up in a PCR processing backlog), hence the other option. Particularly true of children it seems. Anyway I personally would send you away on day 27. Clinics are working over Christmas, we will be working on Christmas Day, Boxing Day and New Year's Day too, so you should be able to find a slot on day 28.
I am a little surprised that a test date would be considered more relevant than when symptoms began (or indeed when they ended) given that the exact timing of a test may be dependent on Royal Mail delivery times and/or other factors. That said, I appreciate the underlying message that waiting a little longer to be boosted after catching Covid is best from a medical point of view. With a roughly seven day window to get my booster (before leaving the country for the next month or two), my reasoning for flirting with the 28 day limit was to potentially give me some Omicron protection for travelling and to pose less of a risk to my Russian father-in-law (who sadly is both high risk and unvaccinated despite my best efforts!) over the Russian holidays.
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 4:09 am
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Originally Posted by KARFA
There is very clear evidence already that vaccines reduce the likelihood of hospitalisations from omicron, and that applies for 2 jabs.

I don’t think I am therefore sticking my neck out far in saying if you are unvaccinated you are much more likely to need hospitalisation (albeit within the lower overall rates for omicron).

Therefore it won’t be surprising if areas with lower vaccination rates see more hospitalisations.
Sorry for delayed reply, in a very hectic period before the end of the year. While I agree with your logic from the first, though the second, to the third sentences in your post, I am trying to come up with sensible explanation for why London (as the case in point) had, if I'm reading it correctly, lower rates of hospitalisation until Omicron took of despite it having lower vaccination rates. In other words, if the reason for London's increasing hospitalisation rate with Omicron is because there is a lower vaccination rate, ceteris paribus one would expect that the same pattern would have been observed with Delta in the weeks running up to Omicron. Yet I don't think this was the case: London had a lower hospitalisation rate. However, I may well be missing or misinterpreting something in the data.

Originally Posted by KARFA
in terms of your friends I assume (and hope) no hospitalisations? If that’s the case then the jab has done it’s job.
Thankfully not, and hopefully it will stay that way, and yes I agree entirely! They are all relatively young and healthy; I hope they've not passed it on to anyone who is more vulnerable.
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 4:29 am
  #8360  
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By the feel of central London currently, I will be fascinated to see how the numbers go in a few days time. The streets are very empty, the restaurants are empty, the pubs are either closed or empty. People are being cautious. If that doesn't significantly slow the spread, then we might as well just give up on that tack and let it rip.

Whereas, from what I understand from more rural friends, there's still the attitude that it's a city problem and it won't have any effect on their socialising plans (at least until they actually get it, and then their attitude changes.
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 4:32 am
  #8361  
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US news say that Omicron is at 73% dominant in new infections in the US (this week's infections), after only 3 weeks, how is that even possible...Not even in the UK is that high...
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 4:36 am
  #8362  
 
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I think were starting to see that whilst we need to learn to live with this is an admirable objective, translating it into actual concrete steps is very difficult.

Unless you control and limit the overall rate of infection, you very quickly run into an inability to isolate those who are vulnerable from those who are infected. Clearly that includes those working in hospitals, but is much wider including the caring and other critical services.

So youre left with a Hobsons choice of isolating and removing people from the workforce (and services are negatively impacted by reduced numbers of available staff, ultimately causing increasing rates of severe illness and death from services not provided) or adopting a more lax approach to isolation and exposing the most vulnerable in huge numbers (who are still at risk of death and serious illness).

When people say Covid has caused huge deterioration in the provision of other areas of medicine like oncology etc., this is precisely why, yet it is somehow expressed as if there was a glaringly obvious way to manage this conundrum that has been missed. If anyone has a solution to this it would be great to hear it.
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 4:45 am
  #8363  
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Incubation period for Omicron may also be shorter, which could worsen things quicker and also affect optimal testing windows...

How Long Does Omicron Take to Make You Sick? (msn.com)

"Estimates for this exposure-to-symptom gap, called the incubation period, clocked in at about five days for Alpha and four days for Delta. Now word has it that the newest kid on the pandemic block, Omicron, may have ratcheted it down to as little as three."
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 5:29 am
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Originally Posted by nk15
Incubation period for Omicron may also be shorter, which could worsen things quicker and also affect optimal testing windows...

How Long Does Omicron Take to Make You Sick? (msn.com)

"Estimates for this exposure-to-symptom gap, called the incubation period, clocked in at about five days for Alpha and four days for Delta. Now word has it that the newest kid on the pandemic block, Omicron, may have ratcheted it down to as little as three."
With a completely unscientific example, this matches exactly what happened to 3 of my family members who recently tested positive. From (assumed) exposure to symptoms / testing positive on LFDs was 2.5 / 3 days in all of their experiences. Fortunately all boosted and only mild symptoms.
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 6:14 am
  #8365  
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I'd be interested to know if overall the severity of Omicron is closer to Delta or similar to the normal flu. In South Africa, that seems to be the case. I know that population is very different to the UK, so we can't compare the two, however, if the severity of Omicron is close to the regular flu, when do we realise that it is time to ease restrictions?

The other thing I'd like to know is how severe is Omicron for a population that is heavily jabbed?
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 6:26 am
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Most likely closer to Delta...

Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 6:35 am
  #8367  
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Originally Posted by HB7
I'd be interested to know if overall the severity of Omicron is closer to Delta or similar to the normal flu. In South Africa, that seems to be the case. I know that population is very different to the UK, so we can't compare the two, however, if the severity of Omicron is close to the regular flu, when do we realise that it is time to ease restrictions?

The other thing I'd like to know is how severe is Omicron for a population that is heavily jabbed?
all the evidence is that its milder - the only debate really is by how much.
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 6:41 am
  #8368  
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No there is no evidence yet. There are clues that it might be but also clues it might not be. There are so many confounding variables it is hard to actually see the severity only. We simply do not know yet. The signs from Denmark, a country closer to the UK for age stratigraphy, serology and population dynamics are encouraging and it seems 0.6% of the infection needs hospitalization, contrary to 1.5% for Delta. But that means it is as severe as the Wuhan strain.
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 7:23 am
  #8369  
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Absolutely. If you ignore all the evidence from South Africa and come up with bizarre arguments based on the season and South Africans being super human virus resistant people - then yes there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever.

Incredible that cases have gone up quite an bit in the UK bit but hospitalisations not so much, but again just ignore this too
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Old Dec 21, 2021, 7:31 am
  #8370  
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So we can't jump to conclusions but the expectation is that politicians are expected to out of an abundance of caution?

Anyway, from here: Is Omicron now falling in South Africa?




Still, far too early for some I am sure.
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