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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Oct 15, 2020, 7:45 pm
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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Oct 19, 2021, 5:36 am
  #7561  
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A bit of a random question to the experts here. My mum got her 2nd dose (AZ) back in early July. She will be due her booster in Brazil - I assume Pfizer, but not sure - in January, six months later.

I am tempted to take her to a walk in clinic here in Scotland to get a booster already now (since walk ins are allowed, no questions asked without documentation, as far as I know), so she can get a Pfizer dose now - mostly since I am a bit paranoid about waning protection from AZ from July and given the incredibly high case rates in the UK.

It would obviously mean she would have had 4 doses in total, with the two boosters 3 months apart.

Would this be ok? Thoughts?
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 5:40 am
  #7562  
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We may have thought lockdowns were a thing of the past, but I guess not: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ke-2021-10-18/
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 6:02 am
  #7563  
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Originally Posted by Dan1113
We may have thought lockdowns were a thing of the past, but I guess not: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ke-2021-10-18/
"to slow a spike in infections in one of the least vaccinated European Union countries."
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 8:26 am
  #7564  
 
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Originally Posted by Dan1113
I am tempted to take her to a walk in clinic here in Scotland to get a booster already now (since walk ins are allowed, no questions asked without documentation, as far as I know), so she can get a Pfizer dose now - mostly since I am a bit paranoid about waning protection from AZ from July and given the incredibly high case rates in the UK.
I am no expert, but if you look through the Twitter thread that ringingup posted, it does appear that the drop off in protection from AZ after 5 months is a bigger drop off than Pfizer, so may be worth doing it if the option is there.

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Old Oct 19, 2021, 10:10 am
  #7565  
 
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Today's data
Cases 43,738 (38,520 last Monday)
Deaths 223 (181)
Patients in hospital 7,749 (6,720 on the 9th)
Patients in ventilation beds 823 (768 on the 9th)
People vaccinated up to and including 18 October 2021:
First dose: 49,462,425
Second dose: 45,400,990
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 10:16 am
  #7566  
 
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Originally Posted by squawk
Today's data
Cases 43,738 (38,520 last Monday)
Deaths 223 (181)
Patients in hospital 7,749 (6,720 on the 9th)
Patients in ventilation beds 823 (768 on the 9th)
People vaccinated up to and including 18 October 2021:
First dose: 49,462,425
Second dose: 45,400,990
The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 16.1% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 14.6%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 130.1 today.
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 10:22 am
  #7567  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveS
The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 16.1% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 14.6%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 130.1 today.
Thanks - I just happened to be on the Gov.UK website at the right moment so thought I'd be useful and post the update, then realised I forgot to do the final sentence. Sorry, and thanks for filling in my oversight!

I can't be the only one who is somewhat concerned by the data in the last couple of weeks, and wondering whether it would be sensible to implement some kind of 'Plan B' sooner rather than later.

If tackled sooner rather than later, I would expect NPIs like (proper, medical/FFP2) masks in crowded environments, plus accelerating the vaccine rollout to younger people and getting boosters sped up, would do the trick without recourse to anything more. However, given the normalisation of the notion that masks don't matter in the UK (compared to, for example, Germany) I think the mask boat has sailed. I hope the UK doesn't come to regret it.
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Last edited by squawk; Oct 19, 2021 at 10:24 am Reason: Spelling mistakes
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 10:33 am
  #7568  
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Is there anyway one thinks lockdown measures could again return for Christmas? I remember watching Boris speak on tv right before Christmas last year announcing a lockdown just a few days after he opened things up.
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 10:50 am
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Originally Posted by enviroian
Is there anyway one thinks lockdown measures could again return for Christmas? I remember watching Boris speak on tv right before Christmas last year announcing a lockdown just a few days after he opened things up.
Unless we are in an absolutely catastrophic situation of full-on NHS collapse - which I don't think is likely, simply by virtue of the proportion of people vaccinated, and the fact that (albeit slowly) the booster/younger people vaccine campaign is ongoing - I very much doubt it. There simply isn't the political will, nor the public acceptance, of this.

However, I know hospitals that are already struggling - there have been many years of under-investment vs need, and no real respite since the beginning of Covid. Things didn't go 'back to baseline' this summer; they were trying to deal with backlog. As Covid cases rises again, this pressure has already led to cancellation and postponement of other procedures in various hospitals this autumn (with concomitant negative health outcomes).

I suspect what is more likely is that the NHS will creak on over the winter and "just about cope" - but with geographically localised pressures that result in cancellations, patients being transferred to other regions, etc. that will have real world negative health outcomes - and with the long term impacts on staff morale and retention.

What is frustrating for me (I have professional experience in health-related research) and for the people I know who work as doctors, nurses, HCPs and health researchers, is that this was not inevitable. I think a bit more caution and proactive intervention with non-pharmaceutical interventions - primarily medical grade masks in crowded environments, better support for people to isolate - alongside continued vaccine rollouts, would mean that our cases and deaths (and thus pressure on resources) would be more comparable to our European neighbours.
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 11:46 am
  #7570  
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Originally Posted by Dan1113
A bit of a random question to the experts here. My mum got her 2nd dose (AZ) back in early July. She will be due her booster in Brazil - I assume Pfizer, but not sure - in January, six months later.
I am not (yet) persuaded that AZ is dropping off in effectiveness at 5 or 6 months, there is some mass evidence pointing this way, some mass evidence not showing this. But from a risk mitigation perspective, it seem sensible to point to 6 months - from dose 2 - to look for a booster for those who are vulnerable or over 50 years of age. Some countries make that 65 years of age for good reasons. The COV-MIX trials showed that AZ+Pfizer is a good combination, Germany did that from an early stage anyway. A lot depends on her risk exposure and whether she will be doing things that put her at risk, for example if her local community is having a high surge in cases. But in broad terms I would leave it to 6 months from dose 2, and that's the UK National Protocol, as it happens. So January and Pfizer would be good for her. I would not be allowed - in llaw - to vaccinate her before that time unless there was another specific factor involved - typically a Patient Specific Direction (prescription).
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 12:09 pm
  #7571  
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For someone with no documentation or record of vaccination in the UK, surely vaccinators wouldn't know anyway of her vaccination history? Or?
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 12:58 pm
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Originally Posted by Dan1113
For someone with no documentation or record of vaccination in the UK, surely vaccinators wouldn't know anyway of her vaccination history? Or?
No, they wouldn't unless you told them. They would go for a full vaccination course though
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Old Oct 19, 2021, 6:11 pm
  #7573  
 
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Originally Posted by enviroian
Is there anyway one thinks lockdown measures could again return for Christmas? I remember watching Boris speak on tv right before Christmas last year announcing a lockdown just a few days after he opened things up.
Unlikely but I think media coverage reflects a palpable unease at the moment. Every time we think we’re on top of this thing, there’s a new twist or turn. The pandemic combined with the government’s chaotic response certainly keeps everyone on their toes.

Last edited by Internaut; Oct 20, 2021 at 3:46 am Reason: Spelling
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Old Oct 20, 2021, 2:34 am
  #7574  
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The MSM/social media created a fuel crisis where there wasn't one. Either the vaccines work or they don't. Anything else is an admission that for the majority it's all been for nothing.
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Old Oct 20, 2021, 2:41 am
  #7575  
 
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Originally Posted by Dan1113
A bit of a random question to the experts here. My mum got her 2nd dose (AZ) back in early July. She will be due her booster in Brazil - I assume Pfizer, but not sure - in January, six months later.

I am tempted to take her to a walk in clinic here in Scotland to get a booster already now (since walk ins are allowed, no questions asked without documentation, as far as I know), so she can get a Pfizer dose now - mostly since I am a bit paranoid about waning protection from AZ from July and given the incredibly high case rates in the UK.

It would obviously mean she would have had 4 doses in total, with the two boosters 3 months apart.

Would this be ok? Thoughts?
If she had third soon (too soon IMHO) I don’t know why you would want a fourth 3 months later.

I’d also put a warning of side effects from the vaccine at this point, though a day or two of flu like symptoms may be considered small in the scheme of things.

The counterpart of being able to get a vaccine outside the recommended schedule is that you would then struggle to get a neat record of all your vaccines for travel purposes.
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Last edited by bluemoon68; Oct 20, 2021 at 2:47 am
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