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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Oct 15, 2020, 7:45 pm
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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Oct 15, 2021, 6:50 am
  #7531  
 
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Originally Posted by KARFA
is there any discernible difference in case rates between places? It would be interesting to see whether these different approaches actually have much impact - accepting that of course there are many other factors not controlled for.
Wales has by quite some margin the highest rate of infection in the entire UK despite still having laws requiring face coverings and social distancing. However, the rules are widely ignored by the under-30s, who make up the biggest group of the new cases each day, and there is also an extraordinary number of people who are apparently "exempt" - I've never seen as many sunflower lanyards as I do in Cardiff. There's also a socio-economic element to compliance with the law, which is pretty much 100% in John Lewis, Waitrose and M&S, but under 50% in Poundland and B&M. It makes it very difficult to determine whether Wales' covid regulations make a difference or not.
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Old Oct 15, 2021, 7:20 am
  #7532  
 
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The whole 'exemption' thing is an utter and total farce.
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Old Oct 15, 2021, 8:25 am
  #7533  
 
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Originally Posted by 13901
The whole 'exemption' thing is an utter and total farce.
If everyone not wearing a mask actually had health issues that made them exempt, we'd already be swamped by a health crisis far greater than the pandemic.
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Old Oct 15, 2021, 8:37 am
  #7534  
 
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Originally Posted by Internaut
If everyone not wearing a mask actually had health issues that made them exempt, we'd already be swamped by a health crisis far greater than the pandemic.
Indeed. Imagine if they also allowed exemptions from wearing seat belts or helmets when driving.
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Old Oct 15, 2021, 10:17 am
  #7535  
 
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Daily data:

Cases 44,932 (36,060 last Friday)
Deaths 145 (127)
Patients admitted 827 (787 on the 4th)
Patients in hospital 7,086 (6,785 on the 7th)
Patients in ventilation beds 783 (808 on the 7th)
People vaccinated up to and including 14 October 2021:
First dose: 49,335,154
Second dose: 45,297,231

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 11.5% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 5.1%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 116.9 today.
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Old Oct 16, 2021, 12:48 am
  #7536  
 
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Originally Posted by 13901
Indeed. Imagine if they also allowed exemptions from wearing seat belts or helmets when driving.
They do. Everyone is a taxi driver or 12 months pregnant, and only Sikhs ride motor bikes.
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Old Oct 16, 2021, 10:24 am
  #7537  
 
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Daily data:

Cases 43,423 (34,950 last Saturday)
Deaths 148 (133)
Patients admitted 915 (823 on the 5th)
People vaccinated up to and including 14 October 2021:
First dose: 49,374,505
Second dose: 45,325,489

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 12.8% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 5.4%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 119.0 today.
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Old Oct 16, 2021, 10:38 am
  #7538  
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Originally Posted by 8420PR
Yesterday, the UK Government published a statement from the respiratory evidence panel, confirming that masks are effective in mitigating the transmission of covid:


Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/public...evidence-panel

But in any case, for England the war against covid is over. I cannot see restrictions returning. We accept the ongoing low levels of death and disability caused by covid-19 (I think mostly by saying it only impacts 'crazy anti-vaxxers'). The vaccines are incredibly effective, and across the world are the path out of this pandemic.

But I still cannot explain the high and flat cases in the UK, especially compared to other countries that have also removed restrictions. Is it purely explained by transmission in UK schools? My understanding is everyone will get covid-19 antibodies sooner or later (from the vaccine or the virus, or both where there is high levels of exposure) - are other countries just delaying the inevitable or have they found a better way?













Seems the consensus is growing that a strategy relying on vaccines only without any NPI is the reason for this, which was the predictions done in July. Now will it materializes in a calmer Winter in UK compared to its European peer ? Possibly.

Scientists have urged the UK government to impose fresh coronavirus restrictions in England over winter, as high hospital admission and fatality rates outstrip the rest of western Europe. The UKs weekly death rate stands at 12 per million, three times the level of other major European nations, while hospitalisations have risen to eight Covid-related admissions a week per 100,000 people, six times the rate on the continent. The decision to end compulsory mask-wearing and to pause plans for vaccine passports in England has made the British government an outlier for its management of the pandemic and could account for the worsening trends, according to scientific experts. By contrast, Western European countries such as France, Italy and, in particular, Spain have brought down infection rates to their lowest level since the summer of 2020.

Martin McKee, professor of public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the better picture on the continent showed England should immediately be activating its winter Plan B of work from home orders, vaccine mandates and legally-enforced mask-wearing indoors.

These small measures like mask-wearing, distancing, ventilation and an emphasis on homeworking are greater than the sum of their parts, McKee said. It really doesnt take an awful lot to bring this down, as France, Italy and others have shown.


https://www.ft.com/content/34582534-...-email:content
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Old Oct 16, 2021, 4:29 pm
  #7539  
 
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Strange that the number of ICU cases per million is so much lower in the UK, but the number of deaths so much higher.

Now I am just speculating, but - how much is the definition of a covid death actually standardised across countries? And what do the excess deaths actually look like at the moment - I remember there was a lot of talk at the beginning of the pandemic about rates not being directly comparable and overall excess deaths after the fact the only reliable measurement, but I haven’t heard that for at least a year - and the numbers have turned into some kind of game that are just taken at face value and compared, to score points one way or another.
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Old Oct 16, 2021, 5:22 pm
  #7540  
 
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Originally Posted by Quark999
Strange that the number of ICU cases per million is so much lower in the UK, but the number of deaths so much higher.

Now I am just speculating, but - how much is the definition of a covid death actually standardised across countries? And what do the excess deaths actually look like at the moment - I remember there was a lot of talk at the beginning of the pandemic about rates not being directly comparable and overall excess deaths after the fact the only reliable measurement, but I havent heard that for at least a year - and the numbers have turned into some kind of game that are just taken at face value and compared, to score points one way or another.
I think the way COVID deaths are counted is necessarily crude but Ive never been comfortable with it. Recent mild Delta infection? Just taken a bullet to the head? Then its a COVID statistic. As I wrote, necessarily crude, and Ill temper my criticism since I dont necessarily have any constructive suggestions beyond asking if its feasible to make it less crude?
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Old Oct 17, 2021, 1:38 am
  #7541  
 
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Originally Posted by Internaut
I think the way COVID deaths are counted is necessarily crude but Ive never been comfortable with it. Recent mild Delta infection? Just taken a bullet to the head? Then its a COVID statistic. As I wrote, necessarily crude, and Ill temper my criticism since I dont necessarily have any constructive suggestions beyond asking if its feasible to make it less crude?
There was some discussion about this a long time ago. it is true that our figures count anyone that dies within 28 days of a positive COVID test. I used the example of someone run over by a bus after testing positive which would be counted. However there are some people that die from COVID in hospitals well after 28 days who are not counted. The theory was and I guess still is that the 28 day measure gets us close to the real figure. I think this is also the recommended method from the WHO? For the UK at least it is the only practical way of measuring deaths to give a headline figure.
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Old Oct 17, 2021, 2:15 am
  #7542  
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The PHE is putting as COVID death any death within 28 days of a positive death.
The ONS is putting as COVID death any death where COVID is listed as the cause in the death certificates.
Here is the graph of death as a function of time for both definition, showing that the PHE definition is a good proxy for the ONS, more laggy and slow to collect, data. It also means the myth of run over by a bus within 28 days of a positive test is just that, a myth.



As for excess deaths, the UK is quite high, around 10% than it should be compared to the last 5 years. Higher than most close countries (I picked a few European countries), except the US. The last 2 or 3 data points are not consolidated so are worthless.

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Old Oct 17, 2021, 2:56 am
  #7543  
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Originally Posted by fransknorge
Here is the graph of death as a function of time for both definition, showing that the PHE definition is a good proxy for the ONS, more laggy and slow to collect, data. It also means the myth of run over by a bus within 28 days of a positive test is just that, a myth.
It's not a myth, it does happen, but it happens so rarely that it's meaningless. Only a few people get run over by a bus, and mostly people with COVID are laid up in bed for a chunk of time after infection so random accidents tend not to happen. Either way the daily data using 28 days is as accurate as any other, is quick to obtain and currently reflects a high level of infection in the UK, higher than neighbouring countries, it's difficult to argue about that. The death rate could be reduced by 30% or so if everyone got their jabs, and in younger people even more so. In the last month 52 people under 40 years old have died from COVID, 4 of those under 18. 40 of those 52 were unvaccinated, including all the children, and we believe that group of 40 would have all survived if they had completed their vaccinations. A recent Kent car crash involving the deaths of 4 young men on their way to watch the Fury v Wilder III boxing match got national headlines - this level of COVID deaths in younger people in not normal.

In context COVID deaths are running at around 830 a week, which is below a bad influenza year, but COVID is a year long respiratory condition. So while 10,000 influenza deaths per annum are accepted, even by doctors (maybe we should be less tolerant), nevertheless 830 x 52 = 43,160 COVID-19 deaths per annum potentially.

It's also not normal to have nearly 10% of school children in Trafford off school with symptomatic COVID, as was the case a few days ago, where the infection rate for 7 days hit 3,600 per 100k, ten times the national rate. And that's where we currently are with high infection rates - it's disproportionately in schools, and particularly in South Wales. The vaccination drive started too late and though I was one of those who was cautious about this, I now think the delay in rollout was a big mistake. At the moment only 15% of those aged 12 to 15 are vaccinated, the school led programme is proceeding too slowly, it's only adding 3.5 percentage points to that total per week. However Trafford is now falling quickly, and very high levels of infection in schools typically don't continue for very long. I would expect the UK infection rate to fall again in a few days, the question is whether it's a sustained fall or the repeated 2 - 3 week bouncing effect we have seen since August. Half term is coming up.
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Old Oct 17, 2021, 3:18 am
  #7544  
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
It's not a myth, it does happen, but it happens so rarely that it's meaningless. Only a few people get run over by a bus, and mostly people with COVID are laid up in bed for a chunk of time after infection so random accidents tend not to happen. Either way the daily data using 28 days is as accurate as any other, is quick to obtain and currently reflects a high level of infection in the UK, higher than neighbouring countries, it's difficult to argue about that.
OK so it is not a myth but it is so rare that it is meaningless, leading to the same point: when people say the PHE definition is overinflating death and give this specific example, their argument does not have any legs to stand on.
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Old Oct 17, 2021, 3:23 am
  #7545  
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Originally Posted by fransknorge
OK so it is not a myth but it is so rare that it is meaningless, leading to the same point: when people say the PHE definition is overinflating death and give this specific example, their argument does not have any legs to stand on.
Correct. It's the best measure we have and accurately reflects the pandemic's journey. It's very useful to have a rapid daily update since with flu we used to collect the figures in such a scatty way that it was really only at the end of the influenza season that we could see what was going on. Which would help for any learnings for the following season but we probably could have prevented more influenza deaths fairly easily.
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