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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Oct 15, 2020, 7:45 pm
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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Oct 14, 2021, 10:11 am
  #7516  
 
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Daily data:

Cases 45,066 (40,701 last Thursday)
Deaths 157 (122)
Patients admitted 719 (715 on the 3rd)
Patients in hospital 7,024 (6,844 on the 6th)
Patients in ventilation beds 781 (807 on the 6th)
People vaccinated up to and including 13 October 2021:
First dose: 49,291,665
Second dose: 45,269,240

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 13.0% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 9.0%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 114.3 today.
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 11:00 am
  #7517  
 
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Originally Posted by Internaut
I think that depends on your definition of normal. I suspect what we have is close enough to the normal the government wants. That is the target number of infections, infection rates and vaccinations met or exceeded, certain thresholds for serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths, deemed threatening to the NHS, not being crossed and carefully targeted demographics* who still think the government are doing their best. I think the British government can cautiously congratulate itself.

* I think to describe these demographics here would be to cross a line and therefore inappropriate to this forum and thread.
I think its natural that there are different views on what is or isnt acceptable. What is clear is that the UK approach of case levels dont matter and focusing solely on ICU and deaths is a gamble that Long Covid isnt a big deal. Time will tell on that one I suppose.
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 12:55 pm
  #7518  
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Originally Posted by JNelson113
I'm a US citizen and just had the pleasure of spending five days in London with my husband and ten year-old daughter. My family returned last night.

From the conversations I had with people there I got the feeling that people are just done with covid. Very few people wear a mask anywhere, and other than some extra hand sanitizer here and there, covid just doesn't feel like a thing anymore. A few people specifically mentioned being glad to have freedom back. I live in Texas and it feels more covid vigilant than the UK.

My family and I loved our trip because things felt so normal. I can't wait to come back again. I think that the moral of the story here is, if you're ready, get vaccinated and then live your life.
I live in London but am currently enjoying a week in Italy. To me, Italy feels very close to normal but much safer than The UK. Theres a recognition of the need for some caution but it doesnt get in the way of enjoying bars, restaurants, galleries, shops or anything else. All you need is a mask, a cleaning of the hands and a vaccination certificate. Whereas behaviour in the UK seems reckless - no basic sanitation, no masks, no distancing, no recognition of the continuing danger. My fear is that it will lead to another lockdown which will be awful.
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 2:07 pm
  #7519  
 
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Originally Posted by lhrsfo
I live in London but am currently enjoying a week in Italy. To me, Italy feels very close to normal but much safer than The UK. Theres a recognition of the need for some caution but it doesnt get in the way of enjoying bars, restaurants, galleries, shops or anything else. All you need is a mask, a cleaning of the hands and a vaccination certificate. Whereas behaviour in the UK seems reckless - no basic sanitation, no masks, no distancing, no recognition of the continuing danger. My fear is that it will lead to another lockdown which will be awful.
Maybe parts of the U.K.(England?), but here at least masks are still very definitely on when inside public spaces (e.g. when moving about in bars, restaurants) and on public transport, offices by and large continue to follow the government advice to work from home where possible, and COVID passports are a legal requirement now in some settings.
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 2:30 pm
  #7520  
 
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Originally Posted by rockflyertalk
I think the US has had one lockdown period, right?
In the US, lockdowns are decided on at the state/local level. There was never a national lockdown - the federal government doesn't have the legal authority to order one (and half the country would ignore it if they did). Different states and cities had lockdowns of different lengths, some never had any at all. And of those that did have them, it was enforced with varying degrees of strength, depending on the jurisdiction.
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 3:24 pm
  #7521  
 
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Originally Posted by lhrsfo
I live in London but am currently enjoying a week in Italy. To me, Italy feels very close to normal but much safer than The UK. Theres a recognition of the need for some caution but it doesnt get in the way of enjoying bars, restaurants, galleries, shops or anything else. All you need is a mask, a cleaning of the hands and a vaccination certificate. Whereas behaviour in the UK seems reckless - no basic sanitation, no masks, no distancing, no recognition of the continuing danger. My fear is that it will lead to another lockdown which will be awful.
Amen. Except that, as Scots_Al mentioned, its unique to England. The other 3 countries have retained some degree of cautionary measures.
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 3:26 pm
  #7522  
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Originally Posted by ringingup
Amen. Except that, as Scots_Al mentioned, its unique to England. The other 3 countries have retained some degree of cautionary measures.
is there any discernible difference in case rates between places? It would be interesting to see whether these different approaches actually have much impact - accepting that of course there are many other factors not controlled for.
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 3:49 pm
  #7523  
 
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Originally Posted by KARFA
is there any discernible difference in case rates between places? It would be interesting to see whether these different approaches actually have much impact - accepting that of course there are many other factors not controlled for.
I think its very difficult to make comparisons now - spikes seem to come and go. One of the factors in Scotlands return-to-school spike was thought to be that because Scotland had previously had lower case rates (because of the more cautious approach), its people had lower naturally acquired immunity - I.e. that Scotland traded fewer cases earlier in the pandemic for more cases later on.

I just know Im not looking forward to the post-COP 26 fallout
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 4:05 pm
  #7524  
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Originally Posted by Scots_Al
I think its very difficult to make comparisons now - spikes seem to come and go. One of the factors in Scotlands return-to-school spike was thought to be that because Scotland had previously had lower case rates (because of the more cautious approach), its people had lower naturally acquired immunity - I.e. that Scotland traded fewer cases earlier in the pandemic for more cases later on.

I just know Im not looking forward to the post-COP 26 fallout
So in other words, the measures dont seem to have any significant or noticeable impact. The way some people scream for measures like masks youd think theyd actually make an obvious difference.

Aside from that, are the places theyd be brought back by law (shops/public transport) even areas where there is much transmission?

Im currently in Vegas where they are mandatory indoors and it feels like I only use it where it wont make much difference (ie walking around) and not in the places where it might (bars/clubs etc)
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Last edited by PxC; Oct 14, 2021 at 4:10 pm
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 4:06 pm
  #7525  
 
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Originally Posted by PxC
So in other words, the measures dont seem to have any significant or noticeable impact. The way some people scream for measures like masks youd think theyd actually make an obvious difference
That is categorically not what I said.
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Old Oct 14, 2021, 4:44 pm
  #7526  
 
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Originally Posted by LETTERBOY
In the US, lockdowns are decided on at the state/local level. There was never a national lockdown - the federal government doesn't have the legal authority to order one (and half the country would ignore it if they did). Different states and cities had lockdowns of different lengths, some never had any at all. And of those that did have them, it was enforced with varying degrees of strength, depending on the jurisdiction.
Ok. I just remember talking to family back in Mar 2020 and a majority of states had ordered lockdowns, 7 states did not have stay-at-home orders so yea as you say it varies.
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Old Oct 15, 2021, 1:23 am
  #7527  
 
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Originally Posted by PxC
So in other words, the measures don’t seem to have any significant or noticeable impact. The way some people scream for measures like masks you’d think they’d actually make an obvious difference.

Aside from that, are the places they’d be brought back by law (shops/public transport) even areas where there is much transmission?

I’m currently in Vegas where they are mandatory indoors and it feels like I only use it where it won’t make much difference (ie walking around) and not in the places where it might (bars/clubs etc)
Yesterday, the UK Government published a statement from the respiratory evidence panel, confirming that masks are effective in mitigating the transmission of covid:

  • the evidence suggests that all types of face coverings are, to some extent, effective in reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in both healthcare and public, community settings – this is through a combination of source control and protection to the wearer (high confidence)
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/public...evidence-panel

But in any case, for England the war against covid is over. I cannot see restrictions returning. We accept the ongoing low levels of death and disability caused by covid-19 (I think mostly by saying it only impacts 'crazy anti-vaxxers'). The vaccines are incredibly effective, and across the world are the path out of this pandemic.

But I still cannot explain the high and flat cases in the UK, especially compared to other countries that have also removed restrictions. Is it purely explained by transmission in UK schools? My understanding is everyone will get covid-19 antibodies sooner or later (from the vaccine or the virus, or both where there is high levels of exposure) - are other countries just delaying the inevitable or have they found a better way?













Last edited by 8420PR; Oct 15, 2021 at 1:30 am
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Old Oct 15, 2021, 2:48 am
  #7528  
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Originally Posted by 8420PR
Yesterday, the UK Government published a statement from the respiratory evidence panel, confirming that masks are effective in mitigating the transmission of covid:


Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/public...evidence-panel

But in any case, for England the war against covid is over. I cannot see restrictions returning. We accept the ongoing low levels of death and disability caused by covid-19 (I think mostly by saying it only impacts 'crazy anti-vaxxers'). The vaccines are incredibly effective, and across the world are the path out of this pandemic.

But I still cannot explain the high and flat cases in the UK, especially compared to other countries that have also removed restrictions. Is it purely explained by transmission in UK schools? My understanding is everyone will get covid-19 antibodies sooner or later (from the vaccine or the virus, or both where there is high levels of exposure) - are other countries just delaying the inevitable or have they found a better way?












Even if they are effective, how often are they used in settings that would make the difference? People dont use masks at home/bars where I assume transmission is higher than trains/planes/shops
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Old Oct 15, 2021, 2:58 am
  #7529  
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My theory (and it is just this, a theory, I might be completely wrong) are that:
- In UK there is no control that I am aware of
- whereas in other countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain, France, you have a control in the form of a pass where you can access certain locals and events only if you are vaccinated, recovered and tested (although more and more tested is removed and it is only recovered or vaccinated). This might be enough to keep low the transmission level in places without masking (restaurants, bars). Masking is also still mandatory in places where it has an impact: public transport, museums, hospitals, etc ...
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Old Oct 15, 2021, 3:10 am
  #7530  
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Forget the focus on masks, you just have to look at the obese, unhealthy people waddling around the UK these days. All crammed into a tiny island. But apart from that trying to compare with other countries with different health approaches, population densities, cultural make-up, fitness attitudes, etc., is just so difficult that I don't know if it has any validity other than "oooh, XXXX is bad". If something good was to come out of all of this is that the data is gone through and says "if X happens and you have or are not doing A, B, C, D, E, F, etc, then you are in big trouble something else comes along". Basically, lessons learned.
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