Local lockdowns in the UK
#2296
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At the risk of being pessimistic, is it not a problem that new vaccine brands (Moderna, J&J) are coming on stream toward the end of the vaccination programme for first doses? In that we’ll be awash with these brands but with nobody to give them to as everyone will be waiting for a second dose of AZ/Pfizer. Or will we end up giving young people their second dose before older people get their second dose, if young people get a newer brand?
I don't see a signficant issue, but as you imply there may be a short period where some younger people will get their jabs a bit early. All centres I am familiar with have currently either a Pfizer day or an AZ day, we try not to mix on the same day, though I have had it happen once. So you could get Monday: J&J, Tuesday: AZ, Wednesday AZ, Thursday: Moderna. So briefly there would be the situation where a youngster gets 2 doses in say 8 weeks and an older person get 2 doses in 10 weeks.
In immune terms jab1 is the most important, the rest is primarily logistical. The idea of people not being "fully vaccinated" until their second jab is based on public policy (to give it my best political spin) and isn't based on science. So if we have a choice, we vaccinate the youngsters sooner with the newer vaccines rather than keep them waiting.
#2297
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With respect to the issue of blood clots, surely the UK should now have sufficient data to determine if the risk is real?
#2298
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At the risk of being pessimistic, is it not a problem that new vaccine brands (Moderna, J&J) are coming on stream toward the end of the vaccination programme for first doses? In that we’ll be awash with these brands but with nobody to give them to as everyone will be waiting for a second dose of AZ/Pfizer. Or will we end up giving young people their second dose before older people get their second dose, if young people get a newer brand?
#2299
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However the recent decisions to suspend AZ use have been taken nationally, and led by the Nordic countries, not exactly as renowned for knee-jerk political point scoring as other member states further south.
There is no evidence to link the two issues and bluntly, to say so, you’re accusing independent medical oversight bodies staffed with professional doctors, chemists and pharmacists in multiple jurisdictions of making baseless decisions influenced by poorly negotiated vaccine acquisitions by an entirely different body in a different state?
There is no evidence to link the two issues and bluntly, to say so, you’re accusing independent medical oversight bodies staffed with professional doctors, chemists and pharmacists in multiple jurisdictions of making baseless decisions influenced by poorly negotiated vaccine acquisitions by an entirely different body in a different state?
Last edited by KARFA; Mar 14, 2021 at 5:42 am
#2300
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"We don't purchase AstraZeneca supplies. So there's no export prohibitions and all vaccine manufacturers in the United States are free to export their products while also fulfilling the terms of their contracts with the US government," White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters at her daily news conference [12 March].
#2301
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This is where data science hits medical science. I'm in the first camp, so for me stopping vaccines for 6 events in a million, when 7 events are expected in normal distribution, and there is a lethal pandemic going on, is bonkers. But it is the precautionary principle. Unfortunately it will probably lead to a small number of patient cancellations in the UK tomorrow.
#2302
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The UK does have that data, and has shared it.
This is where data science hits medical science. I'm in the first camp, so for me stopping vaccines for 6 events in a million, when 7 events are expected in normal distribution, and there is a lethal pandemic going on, is bonkers. But it is the precautionary principle. Unfortunately it will probably lead to a small number of cancellations in the UK tomorrow.
This is where data science hits medical science. I'm in the first camp, so for me stopping vaccines for 6 events in a million, when 7 events are expected in normal distribution, and there is a lethal pandemic going on, is bonkers. But it is the precautionary principle. Unfortunately it will probably lead to a small number of cancellations in the UK tomorrow.
#2303
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This made my blood boil, there was a comment/question in DM today, why can't we ease lockdown earlier as cases, deaths, hospitalisations etc are all lowering, the answer was that although the Government accepts there may be a temporary rise in cases it may lead to an increase in hospitalisations, citing one reason as anti-vaxxers. So because of these people we can't ease lockdown sooner potentially! As a society we have done the best we can by producing vaccines for all yet we could be held to ransom by this minority? Surely there will be data soon on people going into hospital to ask them if they have refused the jab?
Last edited by paulaf; Mar 14, 2021 at 6:23 am
#2304
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The UK does have that data, and has shared it.
This is where data science hits medical science. I'm in the first camp, so for me stopping vaccines for 6 events in a million, when 7 events are expected in normal distribution, and there is a lethal pandemic going on, is bonkers. But it is the precautionary principle. Unfortunately it will probably lead to a small number of patient cancellations in the UK tomorrow.
This is where data science hits medical science. I'm in the first camp, so for me stopping vaccines for 6 events in a million, when 7 events are expected in normal distribution, and there is a lethal pandemic going on, is bonkers. But it is the precautionary principle. Unfortunately it will probably lead to a small number of patient cancellations in the UK tomorrow.
We had the debate later, thromboembolic incidents have a yearly incidence rate of ~100 per 100,000 in the US (only figure I could find quickly), so statistically it was bound to happen anyway. But statistics are only reassuring if you're not part of them...
ETA: I think a sensible approach might be to stop giving AZ to people with a history of coagulation problems until the issue could be investigated. There's probably enough Pfizer to go for that particular population. But fully stopping the roll-out is absolutely bonkers as you point out.
#2305
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In the interests of balance, here is Ireland's National Immunisation Advisory Committee's statement on the issue, so this is how medical science comes up with the other perspective They actually used the precautionary principle wording there:
https://www.rcpi.ie/news/releases/na...e-astrazeneca/
The reference to HPRA means that they haven't noticed problems in Ireland, but with only 117,000 doses they couldn't reach a statistic trigger. 81% of Ireland's doses so far are not AZ so it matters less for them in a sense, there again their death rate is even higher than the UK's.
https://www.rcpi.ie/news/releases/na...e-astrazeneca/
Originally Posted by Royal College of Physicians of Ireland
The alert followed four new reports [in Norway] of serious, rare thromboembolic (clotting) events, including some complicated by thrombocytopenia (low platelet count) in adults under 65 years of age after vaccination with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca®. To date, no reports of similar events have been received by the HPRA. Over 117,000 doses of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca® have been given in Ireland. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has been investigating a number of reports of clotting events following vaccination with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca®. Further information is expected from the EMA in the next few days, which will include a review of the additional events.
The possible relationship between these events and the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca® is uncertain and is being investigated. It is very important that all potential rare events are rigorously and swiftly investigated so we can support public confidence. In light of this new information and pending receipt of further information from the EMA, on a precautionary principle it is recommended to temporarily defer administration of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca® as of today, Sunday 14 March 2021.
The possible relationship between these events and the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca® is uncertain and is being investigated. It is very important that all potential rare events are rigorously and swiftly investigated so we can support public confidence. In light of this new information and pending receipt of further information from the EMA, on a precautionary principle it is recommended to temporarily defer administration of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca® as of today, Sunday 14 March 2021.
Last edited by corporate-wage-slave; Mar 14, 2021 at 6:12 am
#2307
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This made my blood boil, there was a comment/question in DM today, why can't we ease lockdown earlier as cases, deaths, hospitalisations etc are all lowering, the answer was that although the Government accepts there may be a temporary rise in cases it may lead to an increase in hospitalisations, citing one reason as anti-vaxxers. So because of these people we can't ease lockdown sooner potentially! Surely there will be data soon on people going into hospital to ask them if they have refused the jab?
#2309
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Moderna is due soon, I think within the next 4 weeks. J&J not until the second half of the year. Novavax I am not sure, but it is still going through the approval process and I imagine May/June at the earliest.
#2310
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Wow Ireland stopped AZ use. I guess they can jump the border to get vaccinated in Northern Ireland ?