Silver Fox

A couple of things if I may. Did you run this past the commissariat to make sure that this survey was on the list of approved surveys? Did you also contact MSM to make sure that this fitted with the narrative du jour and it wasn't a rogue survey that was not statistically relevant. At this stage, as many of our listeners will know, we usually like to say things like "99% of statistics are made up", or "what were the demographics and if you ask this in x then it may be different".

HB7

What's your point? It seems like you are over-complicating this for the sake of over-complication. Second jabs will be given within 12 weeks. For the very large majority of people jabbed till mid-Feb, this is likely to fall after April. In between mid Feb to April, a period of about 6 - 7 weeks, you will not need to be vaccinating hundreds of thousands of people a day. I'm not sure how much more simple it can be.

NewbieRunner

Based on a very small sample of two, both in the top 4 priority groups in Wales who received their first jab within a day of each other during the last week of January, one who had Pfizer vaccine has been given a date for the second jab 5 1/2 weeks after the first but the other one who had AZ vaccine has not been given a date for the second jab yet. Makes you wonder if they are prioritising the second dose of Pfizer vaccine for those who had already received one. By the way it's fairly easy to guess which vaccine you will get around here. If you go to one of the MVCs you will get Pfizer and you are more likely to get AZ at GP surgeries.

HB7

If there is the data, to support it, which we will have in time, I see no reason why they wouldn't. A lot of people questioned this in regards to the Pfizer vaccine, and many people still do, however, over the next few months, it may be clear that it is ok to extend this period past the 12 weeks. The J&J vaccine ran trials which tested the efficacy of one jab vs two jabs (the latter I believe is yet to be complete). There are continuing trials and studies and in time, it may be the case that one jab either does the job, or a longer period between jabs is fine, and I'm sure the MHRA will be looking into this.

Misco60

Actually, it is quite complicated. Supplies are currently uncertain and to some extent unpredictable, and as well as offering first doses the NHS has to ensure that there are enough vaccines - and of the correct type, in the right place - to be able to give the second doses when they become due. Stockpiling is almost inevitable, thereby reducing the number of first doses that can be given.

The UK's vaccination programme has been a success to date, and I have high hopes that it will continue to be, but we are now approaching the time when it starts to become a greater logistical challenge.

IAN-UK

We are already testing the prime boost interval for a novel mRNA vaccine on the public, outside clinical trials. So, sure, why not extend he range of interval testing - in for a penny....

The JCVI states “the second dose .... is expected to be as or more effective when delivered at an interval of 12 weeks from the first dose”. Recent evidence suggests the first jab is effective up to four weeks, maybe a little longer, so only 8 weeks of uncertainty until JCVI are off the hook

That expectation gives a measure of reassurance, but not sufficient to convince regulatory authorities outside the UK. The US adopted a pragmatic approach of aiming for three weeks, but recognising six weeks as a practical limit. Our target is twelve weeks.

enviroian

Is there a chart or data that shows jabs per/100K people y country out there? Just curious.

fransknorge

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

IAN-UK

Simplicity might dawn if you consider the difference between up to twelve weeks, and at 12 week. You can receive the second dose anywhere between 21 days and 84 days after the first one. If/when the pressure to give first jabs eases, second jabs will fill the void. And after that there'll be phase II......


This is the nonsense that infuses the calculation earlier in this thread. Given supplies and logistics in place, it would be bonkers to slacken off the vaccination programme.
How you think CWS would fill his days ?

lhrsfo

From a sample of two, Mrs LHRSFO and me, I got the Pfizer jab last week with a 10 week gap before the booster, and she got the AZ jab this week with an 11 week gap. I'm guessing that HMG is giving itself some wiggle room on second jabs in case of supply issues impacting second jabs - and is perhaps anticipating more potential supply issues with Pfizer.

I can see that the second jabs will be more complicated, ensuring that there is sufficient supply, plus anticipating that there will be a higher proportion missing their second jabs (either because they think one is enough, or because they need to rearrange or because the whole thing will seem less urgent then.

HB7

How is this causing the vaccine programme to slacken off? What you're saying literally makes no sense.

HB7

Just because you say it's complicated doesn't make it so. Supplies are not known to us, however, they are to the government. They have planned for any uncertainties and drops in levels expected - but we don't know that - unless you work in government or you're part of the procurement team.

Stockpiling literally has nothing to do with this argument. You can stockpile what you need to give as a second dose and continue to give out first doses at high numbers.

All I'm trying to say is that the target date of mid-April for all priority groups (1-9) can possibly be achieved a week or 10 days earlier. And I'm fairly sure the government thinks so too because if they are going to make a date like that public, they're definitely going to build in some contingency. As we saw with groups 1-4, they completed this 2 days early.

Silver Fox

Well it could always be worserer:

Germany’s Largest Paper: ‘Dear Britain, We Envy You’

The front page of Bild, Germany’s best read newspaper, this morning was emblazoned with a large Union Jack and the words “Dear Britain, we envy you” written across it. Accompanying text read that “the English have announced their return to normality on June 21… and here there’s no hope”. The paper noted that a total of 17.7 million Brits have been jabbed, compared to just 3.4 million in Germany.

Kgmm77

The EU vaccine acquisition strategy has certainly been a shambles, with the usual fiscal conservatives, including Germany, very much to blame by refusing to pay up to secure early slots and trying to negotiate on price rather than timing. But I’m not sure envy is the right word or tells the full story given the U.K. has to date double the number of deaths as Germany with a population 30% smaller.

corporate-wage-slave

The Protocols does not completely rule out mixing, but the whole tenor is not to do this unless otherwise comptetely unavoidable. The planning and stock management is being based on a course of 2 identical vaccines. The only circumstance I can see this happening would be someone who had Pfizer in dose 1 beting forced on to AZ for dose 2 due to the ridiculous handling, storage and unit sizing of Pfizer. So let's say you turned up at your centre right at the end of the session, there were no DNAs (did not attends, and there are very, very few of these) and we lost some doses, e.g the syringe snapped during vaccinating. As Pfizer comes in boxes of 1100 you have to use it all up, and if you were patient 1101 and you could not return the next day, then you could concievably end up with AZ instead. AZ comes out of the fridge and isn't wildely more problematic than milk, the unit sizing being 9 or 11 doses depending on the vial.

The RVI is doing a trial of mixing J&J with Pfizer (inter-alia), I had one person on her third jab, poor thing.

As for spacing, I can see on the system that people are down for 10 to 11 weeks for jab2, even if they haven't been told their second date. There are only slight differences between Pfizer and AZ second dates purely because we have more AZ than Pfizer, so most vaccine days are AZ. The data from Public Health Scotland / Edinburgh University on Monday is very interesting, and does give grounds for extending the timelines for certain cases, such as those who have had COVID-19 confirmed in the last few months - in terms of IgG response there isn't an obvious logical benefit in having a second jab, but that's just my opinion, the process is two vaccines for all. A similiar case could be made for healthy people in their 20s and 30s if the Autumn 2021 booster would be close upon them anyway and has better mutation targetting in it. Again just speculation there.

By way of an anecdote, I am only jabbing 1 day this week, today, though I could perhaps get some more vaccinated on Friday Next week I am vaccinating on 3 days.