CraigWatson

I'm booked on VS21 on Friday to IAD, and after seeing the news about Lorenzo, I'm wondering if anyone with weather tools greater than Google Fu (e.g. METARs) can shed any light on how (or indeed, if) Tropical Storm Lorenzo will affect flights in and out of LHR?

AStarr

The NHC forecast puts Lorenzo at a significantly weaker state by Friday morning/afternoon when it will be over England with ~45mph winds. It's moving fast but it's a massive storm so the exact effects are unclear. A cyclone of similar strength came through the Bay of Biscay at the end of July after a few days of severe thunderstorms that caused numerous delays and cancellations. I think there were delays at the day of the cyclone (July 30) due to multiple factors that are oddly similar this time. There have been delays this week already from the weather we've had this week ahead of Lorenzo approaching. So the ground is saturated and ripe for more flooding on top of what we already have. Personally, I would be prepared for delays especially with ground traffic.

I'll be on a train Friday in the middle of it all. Frankly, I think flying will be less of a problem than trains. A friend of mine is flying into LHR as well but in the evening and will likely be alright.

CraigWatson

Thanks for the insight - much appreciated!

I'm actually going to be driving to LHR that morning from near Glastonbury, so make sure to leave extra time - hadn't thought about the ground traffic!

OverTheHorizon

Grrr, we are due to fly from LGW to AYT on Monday morning - fingers crossed it has all blown over by then !

AStarr

You'll be fine. He's moving fast.

AStarr

Yeah, ground effects are more of a concern given what happened with the unnamed cyclone at the end of July. Trains were cancelled across the Peak District for 5 days due to damage to a reservoir in Whaley Bridge. I couldn't get to Manchester very easily at all if I wanted. The reroutes by ground were insane.

The NHC is no longer including updates for this storm so all information will be through Met Éireann and the UK Met Office. Which... as a Floridian transplant to the UK, I find them to be woefully lacking in detail. They have issued a yellow wind advisory for a small part of England tomorrow - the lowest advisory they make. Yr.no (Norwegian weather service) isn't predicting much rain or wind at all for London tomorrow. A bit brisk on winds (8m/sec in the morning, 6m/sec in the afternoon) but rainfall totals are typical for this time of year, storm or not.

At this point, only the passage of time and the event happening will you end up knowing and that's is always the case with these things. We want to know, but we don't ever really know until the thing actually happens. I don't think it will be all that bad at LHR tbh.