Does TK Cancel for Light Loads Much?
 

I'm flying TK7 IST-IAD on Sun., Mar. 3. The loads for the flight are very light judging from the seat map in both Y and C. Similar story for the aircraft's return run IAD-IST (also departing on Mar. 3).

I understand that seat maps are not an accurate indicator of passenger load but if these flights are in fact very light loads, how much of a risk is there that TK will cancel the flight?

Airlines might cancel flights for several reasons, but light load is a very unlikely one, especially on an intl flight in which the aircraft has to be repositioned for the return. I will bet that US flights are high revenue and will be the last ones to be touched in case of equipment cancellation.

Cancellations are a headache for the airline because you do not only deal with displaced pax and compensation, but also cargo which is more lucrative than passengers.

and another displaced thing... the airplane. Unless it's a hub, they seldom cancel a flight, since the airplane is most likely scheduled to be used again in X hours. Then again TK is pretty good at juggling/swapping different airplanes.

You can't predict anything from the seat map, in particular on TK where ASR is not possible until shortly before the flight.

I would be surprised if these flights would not be almost full. TK flights to/from the US are doing very well.

In any case, no need to worry. TK does not cancel because the loads are light.

Correct you were - the flights were all at least 75% full. I guess we shouldn't be surprised given that I got a roundtrip for $500 and many similar deals existed as well. A great airline in many respects - fun to fly with them.

On my LAX-IST flight it was around 75% full, which is the least I have experienced in all the TATL flights I have taken with various airlines.

Almost all Y rows have empty seats except ours.

Not that I mind because FA are usually nicer when it's not a full flight.