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-   -   Will the dollar collapse? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/travelbuzz/738200-will-dollar-collapse.html)

DeltaSilverBoy Sep 21, 2007 7:24 am


Originally Posted by BelfastFlyer (Post 8439029)
the dollar will bounce back. Once a new president is in and a real economic strategy is put in, us UK travellers will only dream of the days when it was $2 to £1 :cool:

As a democratic party voter, I doubt a new president is going to help much. Getting out of Iraq and refunding the government may change the situation, but both of those things may take 10-12 years, and the next president will be in office 4-8. Of course, Clinton took the US out of debt and into economic growth, but I think that was due to the tech industry and not anything in the Oval Office.

Kibison Sep 21, 2007 7:45 am


Originally Posted by NWASimon (Post 8439317)
Clinton took the US out of debt

Wrong. The US National Debt increased EVERY SINGLE YEAR during the Clinton administration. It is increasing even faster under Bush but it did increase every year Clinton was in office.

http://www.swivel.com/data_columns/s...ion=ASC&page=3

http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm

AAJetMan Sep 21, 2007 8:15 am

Hasn't the divestiture of some large countries' bond and cash reserves into holdings other than those that are US dollar-based helped exacerbate the dollar plunge?

pteron Sep 21, 2007 8:24 am

My postwoman is already overworked bringing the parcels I order from the US. She'll have a breakdown if the dollar goes much lower ;)

Dr_wanderlust Sep 21, 2007 8:32 am

the weak dollar policy the US has been pursuing the past 7 years in an effort to help exports really stinks if you travel much.

etch5895 Sep 21, 2007 8:35 am

Thankfully Argentina is still a travel bargain for Americans (steak dinner, salad, fries and beer - 18 pesos, slightly less than $6). Also thankfully, the masses haven't and probably won't figure this out. Selfish? Maybe!

If we could only make America a more welcome place for non-American travelers, our tourism industry would be rolling in the dough.

UncleDude Sep 21, 2007 8:36 am

One thing this Government seems to have forgotten is that Travel and Tourism is now the Western Worlds Largest Industry. Until they stop treating Visitors to The USA the same as Criminals arriving in Jails then there is going to be this continued reluctance to visit and spend the much needed foreign currency in the USA which is assisting in the currency deficit.

I once recall somebody in the Central Florida area remarking that every new Hotel room created 4 new jobs, not just in the hotel, but housing, schools, transportation, shopping, theme parks etc.

Has anybody thought that the slow down in Travel and Tourism caused by the Gestapo style arrival and security systems, may have the exacerbated downturn in the housing market.

Whilst European Visitors are reluctant to visit USA their vacations to UAE are increasing at an enourmous rate. Seems they feel more comfortable and safer with The Arabs than the Yanks.

telloh Sep 21, 2007 8:40 am


Originally Posted by Kibison (Post 8439441)
Wrong. The US National Debt increased EVERY SINGLE YEAR during the Clinton administration. It is increasing even faster under Bush but it did increase every year Clinton was in office.

Whenever somebody mentions the deficit (not the debt) under President Bush, the conservatives invariably respond (usually in a screech) that it's not really so bad when expressed as a percentage of GDP.

In that spirit, I'll point out that the National Debt as a percentage of GDP decreased dramatically under Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Johnson. It decreased slightly under Nixon, Ford, and Carter. It increased dramatically under Reagan and GHW Bush, decreased under Clinton, and is increasing under GW Bush.

http://zfacts.com/p/318.html

AAJetMan Sep 21, 2007 9:33 am


Originally Posted by etch5895 (Post 8439680)
If we could only make America a more welcome place for non-American travelers, our tourism industry would be rolling in the dough.

This is so true !! What is lacking in making this happen? Is crime a big concern? TSA shoe patrol? Intimidation around cities w/o extensive public transportation???
What's up? The USA has GOT to seem inexpensive to Brits and other Europeans.

gglave Sep 21, 2007 10:39 am

>Once a new president is in and a real economic strategy is put in

<flame suit>

As an outsider looking in, I think the problem is the USA, as a nation, isn't really ready to do what needs to done for a 'real economic strategy.'

1) You need to run balanced budgets, from the municipal to state to federal level.

2) You need to pay down your giant debts.

You can't really belt tighten more than you already have - Bridges are falling down, schools are falling down, people are using ERs as their doctors offices etc.

So the only solution I can see for the US to balance your budgets and pay down your debts is to raise taxes, either income taxes, or, more likely, a national consumption sales tax.

Canada went through this in the early 90s. Everyone hated our consumption tax, but now the budgets are balanced.

</flame suit>

Cheers,
Geoff Glave
Vancouver, Canada

lavalyn Sep 21, 2007 1:46 pm

Debt spending is like that. It feels great when you get both your tax cuts and public spending, but it only goes so far before it catches up to you.

Just as it's (fiscally, if not socially) irresponsible to eat out in expensive restaurants and buy big-ticket televisions and cars while with maxed-out credit cards and going paycheque to paycheque, it's socially irresponsible to cut taxes, while maintaining military spending at whatever stratospheric number it is, and increase the debt while at it, with no plan to raise the money back.

allset2travel Sep 21, 2007 2:05 pm


Originally Posted by lavalyn (Post 8441536)
Debt spending is like that. It feels great when you get both your tax cuts and public spending, but it only goes so far before it catches up to you.

Just as it's (fiscally, if not socially) irresponsible to eat out in expensive restaurants and buy big-ticket televisions and cars while with maxed-out credit cards and going paycheque to paycheque, it's socially irresponsible to cut taxes, while maintaining military spending at whatever stratospheric number it is, and increase the debt while at it, with no plan to raise the money back.

Stay on OP's topic:
It is painful to travel in Europe and most other places when the US$ is as weak as it is today. Personally that did not stop me from taking vacation overseas. The curse of a weak $ has a blessing. As an investor, I over allocate portfolio with international equity, particularly China. That has more than compensated for the loss due to $ weakness.
As for the discussions about social & fiscal responsibilities, tax cuts and national deficit; and how we should not eat out; and the blame game etc.... All that belong to another forum.

Just my 2c.

mbstone Sep 21, 2007 2:10 pm

Explain this to me: Bush/Bernanke print zillions of greenbacks to finance the federal deficit. The value of the USD is going into the tank. The price of gold, copper, gasoline and other commodities is rising to make up for the dollar's decreased value. At this rate, eventually I will have the privilege of paying off my mortgage with wheelbarrows full of dollars that are worth about as much as World War I Reichsmarks. So why is the value of my house going down?

lavalyn Sep 21, 2007 2:18 pm

Very well, I'll stay on topic.

It makes my travel planning that much easier, since there's even more incentive to go stateside for my shopping and frivolous jaunts. Currency changes go both ways.

Perhaps it's time for Americans to look inward for their travelling needs.

lavalyn Sep 21, 2007 2:23 pm


Originally Posted by mbstone (Post 8441659)
Explain this to me: Bush/Bernanke print zillions of greenbacks to finance the federal deficit. The value of the USD is going into the tank. The price of gold, copper, gasoline and other commodities is rising to make up for the dollar's decreased value. At this rate, eventually I will have the privilege of paying off my mortgage with wheelbarrows full of dollars that are worth about as much as World War I Reichsmarks. So why is the value of my house going down?

It went down in US dollars because there was an increase in property supply, which happens because more people put their properties on the market. The credit collapse recently did that... when people were forced to sell their property in foreclosure. Which happens because people can't pay their bills, which happens because they lost their jobs, which happens because other countries had (possibly artificially) low currencies that made US labour expensive.


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