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Originally Posted by GWU ESIA STUDENT
(Post 7645343)
...NK down in FLL is using this exact same model which works very well for Ryanair.
Ryanair is a shopping system that happens to fly people. Most of their money is made off of selling incidentals that only happen when you buy the ticket. ... Scheduled passenger revenues increased by 27% to Euros: 1,433.4m due to a combination of increased passenger volumes on existing routes, the successful launch of new bases at Liverpool, Shannon, East Midlands, Pisa and Cork and a 1% increase in average fares. Ancillary revenues increased by 36% to Euros: 259.2m, a faster growth rate than passenger volumes, reflecting a strong performance in non-flight scheduled revenues (primarily car hire, hotels and travel insurance), on board sales and other ancillary products. Ancillary revenues continue to grow at a significantly faster rate than passenger volumes. http://www.ryanair.com/site/about/in...nualreport.pdf So, while this 259m euros isn't most of Ryanair's revenues, it is most of its operating profit. |
Originally Posted by GWU ESIA STUDENT
(Post 7645343)
You are missing the point of their pricing structure; of course Skybus will lose money on $10 and possibly even $50 fares. They will make that money up with baggage fees, priority boarding fees and (most likely) the selling of any and everything possible at 30,000 feet. Money also gets made on the comissions they get from hotels, attractions, rental car reservations etc etc. NK down in FLL is using this exact same model which works very well for Ryanair.
Ryanair is a shopping system that happens to fly people. Most of their money is made off of selling incidentals that only happen when you buy the ticket. Look at it like this. Assume you buy a ticket that Skybus breaks even on for the flight part of your trip. Then you check a bag for $5 and assume Skybus gets $4 profit, buy priority boarding $10, pure profit, buy a soda and snack for $4, Skybus gets $2 profit, book a hotel via their website $5 commission/profit, book a rental car via their website $5 commission/profit. These numbers can add up pretty quickly based on my example, assuming Skybus breaks even with the ticket they just made close to $26 profit from this passenger. Now assuming that thier fares average out to them breaking even across the whole plane on a flight and all of their passengers average about $26 in additional charges they made $3,744 on that flight. Not too shabby by any airlines standards. Granted their are overhead costs and HQ staff has to be paid etc etc but that $3,744 across the whole system can add up pretty quickly. I know some of the European carriers make some money booking hotels on their websites, but the market for that in the US will be very small. It's a very mature market, and I see little reason to believe SkyBus pax will shift their hotel bookings to Skybus from the established players. |
Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 7645116)
It's not "hate" -- I'd love to see a new innovative US airline (although, in the current crowded environment, I really can't imagine why anyone would put their own money into launching a new domestic carrier).
It's just that the math doesn't work here. I went through it in an earlier post. It is IMPOSSIBLE to make money offering $10 and $50 airfares in the United States. It's a business model with no hope of success. |
SkyBus is apparently also involved in less-than-candid timeshare sales on their website.
http://www.airliners.net/discussions....main/3377886/ This may be "yuckier" than I thought. |
Originally Posted by winodj
(Post 7645618)
Spirit Airlines doesn't seem to think that'll work either. That's why they're selling $6 and $69 airfares. They're following the same business model and they have a lot of longish flights too, maybe not CMH to BLI, but Guatemala City to FLL, for example.
I'm not sure Spirit will be successful in their current "unbundling" strategy, but their odds are exponentially higher than Skybus'. They are a "real" airline with a "real" business strategy. |
Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 7645662)
SkyBus is apparently also involved in less-than-candid timeshare sales on their website.
http://www.airliners.net/discussions....main/3377886/ This may be "yuckier" than I thought. It might be legal, but it's yucky all right. |
Good Ideas for Skybus to use as Alternative Airports like there bellingham idea
Rochester, MN - Twin Cities less then 80 miles Rockford or Gary Airport - Chicagoland Long Island or Westchester (I think it's that but might be wrong) - NYC area North Las Vegas Air Terminal - Lol, man that would be nasty Tijuana (San Diego) - Joking Birmingham - Market as Atlanta and the Entire South |
Originally Posted by dhuey
(Post 7645054)
... I expect more than a few Ohio State students will be thrilled with these folks.
I'm scheduled to visit my girlfriend three times next quarter through PSM. Total cost... $110. For that price, as long as I get there and get back alive, they can put me in an overhead compartment. :D On another note, has anybody figured how many planes they'll be flying with this initial schedule and what routes each one will take? If somebody wants to schedule their own connection with them, having it posted in plane 1, plane 2 format would be great. That way if a plane is flying CMH-BUR-CMH-PSM you know you have a pretty good shot of not missing a connection, sans checked bags, of course. |
Anybody notice this rule?
If you purchased Priority Boarding and then choose to change your flight, your choice of new flights will be limited to those that have Priority Boarding available. Since Priority Boarding is limited, this may mean that you have fewer flights to choose from. |
Originally Posted by Bobster
(Post 7646833)
Anybody notice this rule?
In other words, by paying the extra $10 for priority, you limit your options in the event your plans change! You run the risk of forfeiting your entire entire fare and then having to buy a full fare new ticket without priority to replace the worthless priority ticket. Good grief. |
Originally Posted by dhuey
(Post 7646868)
I suspect that was just poorly worded on their part.
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They must be putting on a marketing blitz because I live in LA, and today two of my friends mentioned this new company to me. I guess CBUS has got billboards everywhere and its being promoted on the radio.
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Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 7645611)
Ancillary review will NEVER make up the gap here. What are they going to get -- $5 per pax for luggage? Faced with a charge, more folks will carry it on. And how many $2 cokes are you going to sell? My guess is one per pax. Priority boarding revenue will be near zero, as the cheapskates who book these fares aren't going to fork over another $10 to get a better seat. And biz travellers will be few and far between on SkyBus.
I know some of the European carriers make some money booking hotels on their websites, but the market for that in the US will be very small. It's a very mature market, and I see little reason to believe SkyBus pax will shift their hotel bookings to Skybus from the established players. Regarding hotel/car rental/etc comissions you are forgetting that FTers tend to be very travel savy and have no problem taking 5 extra minutes to book a hotel through the company's website for exta points but when (to use the FT term) Ma & Pa Kettle are booking travel they see the options right there and can get it all down quickly and easily; that is where the revenue is derived from. Even if Skybus refers them to another website, say hotels.com for example, they most likely will get a fee for sending the passenger to the site; especially if they book. Lastly never underestimate a small business trying to save money on air travel. Skybus will not have $10 fares 6 hours out from departure; their last minutes fares, while not bargain basement, will be cheaper than the legacies which will most likely result in one of two things. The first is that the legacies will be made to compete at levels that are not profitable for them. The second is that the legacies do not price match and price sensitive businesses will start flying Skybus; especially on shorter trips. |
Originally Posted by GWU ESIA STUDENT
(Post 7649738)
That $10 from early boarding is pure profit for Skybus and if do not get it they don't get it; it is an easy way to attract a lot more revenue. ....
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Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 7638456)
I still think the most telling sign of impending failure is America West's history at Columbus. They tried for YEARS to make it a hub, losing money repeatedly. But when Doug Parker and Scott Kirby took over the reigns, they realized it was hopeless, and pulled out.
If Parker and Kirby thought CMH could never work as part of a low fare national network -- and this was after successfully battling WN at PHX and LAS for years -- what are the odds for the newcomers? Almost nil, I would think.
Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 7640071)
long, relevant article involving lots and lots of math that I'm not going to quote because of the length
Speaking of easyJet, you can probably get a sense of what Skybus will charge for their in flight sales from this section of easyJet's website.
Originally Posted by winodj
(Post 7645618)
Spirit Airlines doesn't seem to think that'll work either. That's why they're selling $6 and $69 airfares. They're following the same business model and they have a lot of longish flights too, maybe not CMH to BLI, but Guatemala City to FLL, for example.
Originally Posted by lebowski2222
(Post 7646630)
Good Ideas for Skybus to use as Alternative Airports like there bellingham idea
...Rockford or Gary Airport - Chicagoland... North Las Vegas Air Terminal - Lol, man that would be nasty... One thing that causes me some concern is the range of the 319 with that many passengers. The range of the 319 is 3700NM, but that is with 142 passengers. The longest flight by easyJet with the 319 is 1363NM (LTN-IST), while the longest flight by Skybus is 1833NM (CMH-OAK). Does anyone here know weather or not that is a problem? |
My guess is that this Skybus should also operate as mainly an airline for leisure travel. WN for years attracted that class of travel through its "down home" humor (quite honestly not something I really want out of an airline). As WN has moved into bigger airports and began attracting last minute business travelers looking for cheaper altneratives their "good old boy" corporate facade has changed a bit. Skybus good do well creating a positive image with the ma and pa kettle crowd. Believe if my company told me to fly Skybus I would very quickly tell them where to stick that 156 paxs A319. And I would have no desire to travel with them when it is on my dime, $10 fares or not.
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
(Post 7650404)
My guess is that this Skybus should also operate as mainly an airline for leisure travel. WN for years attracted that class of travel through its "down home" humor (quite honestly not something I really want out of an airline). As WN has moved into bigger airports and began attracting last minute business travelers looking for cheaper altneratives their "good old boy" corporate facade has changed a bit. Skybus good do well creating a positive image with the ma and pa kettle crowd. Believe if my company told me to fly Skybus I would very quickly tell them where to stick that 156 paxs A319. And I would have no desire to travel with them when it is on my dime, $10 fares or not.
Skybus is jumping out of the box almost taking pride in a surly, unfriendly demeanor. It's the opposite approach to WN. The $10 fares earned them some media run, but this thing isn't going to last. |
Originally Posted by pinniped
(Post 7650457)
The key difference is that Southwest actually executes their model very well - and strives to take very good care of their customers. Call 1-800-Southwest, for example, and you're talking to a human faster than when I call either the UA or AA elite lines. Plus, any fare I buy on Southwest is completely changeable. Flying them, even with the cattle call, is better than flying any legacy carrier without elite status.
Skybus is jumping out of the box almost taking pride in a surly, unfriendly demeanor. It's the opposite approach to WN. The $10 fares earned them some media run, but this thing isn't going to last. |
Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
(Post 7650650)
I agree that WN does take good care of its customers unlike legacys that only really care about the top elites or premium (paying) paxs. Notice that WN is not having hordes of paxs living at MDW for several days after weather issues in Chicago but you see it with AA at ORD. The issue for Skybus is the first time there is major weather issue in Columbus Skybus' lack of infrastructure to handle planes full of displaced paxs will show immensely. And then in order to quite the storm of media, government, and regulators they are going to need to put that infrastructure in place. And that will become costly and there goes their "operating at a five cents a mile per passenger" business model.
As much as I love the basic model of what Skybus is doing the idea of not having a call center at all, in any form, is IMHO pushing the envelope just a little too far. |
Originally Posted by pinniped
(Post 7650457)
The key difference is that Southwest actually executes their model very well ...
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Originally Posted by dhuey
(Post 7650737)
That's a very good observation. We're all focusing on the business models, but it's worth remembering that no model can overcome poor execution. I do think that Skybus can make this work, but we'll see how they do when it comes to actual flight operations.
WN took the opposite approach: distribute the network so that no single airport can kill the entire organism. The Chicago example is perfect: when they get smacked with a big snowstorm, UA and AA are hosed pretty badly. WN is only hosed sorta-badly, because they can move people through other places besides MDW, even though MDW is a pretty big operation for them. Now if WN would only lose the cattle call, install some F seats, fly to Europe and Asia, recognize elite status, and... Oh, nevermind. ;) :D |
Originally Posted by GWU ESIA STUDENT
(Post 7650716)
I can't help but wonder if Skybus has an unlisted phone number that they will distribute in the event of weather emergencies.
4181 Arlingate Plz Columbus, OH 43228 (614) 246-8800 |
Columbus, Ohio - the new IN destination?
This morning I open up my DING and, lo and behold, cheapest fares are into CMH. One-way fares thru DING:
AUS-CMH=$50 HOU-CMH=$50 MHT-CMH=$25 PVD-CMH=$25 SAT-CMH=$50 Of course, none of these origination cities are Skybus cities. Nevertheless, it seems curious that WN would target Columbus the same month Skybus plans its startup from that city. Coincidence? Any opinions about why WN is doing this? In any event, CMH seems a cheap place to get to this month. Anything to do there? |
Skybus news
A couple of news stories and clips from a Columbus' local TV station on Skybus' inaugural flight:
http://www.10tv.com/vplayer.php?clip...Experience.wmv http://www.10tv.com/vplayer.php?clip...kes_Flight.wmv According to the news, "there were some glitches, but most passengers didn't mind" and "the food is better than most airlines." But, one of the problems was that they ran out of food halfway into the flight. |
Originally Posted by FlyerInCmh
(Post 7782668)
A couple of news stories and clips from a Columbus' local TV station on Skybus' inaugural flight:
http://www.10tv.com/vplayer.php?clip...Experience.wmv http://www.10tv.com/vplayer.php?clip...kes_Flight.wmv According to the news, "there were some glitches, but most passengers didn't mind" and "the food is better than most airlines." But, one of the problems was that they ran out of food halfway into the flight. At the very end, note well the line about how the parent company of the station is an investor in Skybus. |
Originally Posted by dhuey
(Post 7782846)
I like the idea of this airline, but that local TV report was just plain silly. Toward the end, a passenger says that she liked how there was more legroom than with most other airlines! Huh? They put 156 seats in an A319, right? Isn't that about 20-30 more than the other carriers?
At the very end, note well the line about how the parent company of the station is an investor in Skybus. |
Good luck to them of course........It will be interesting however to see whether Skybus will ALSO follow Ryanairs apparently "hands off" approach when problems do arise...
Check the Skytrax forums for numerous complaints about Ryanair pax being stranded after flight cancellations.... I can not imagine Americans putting up with THAT sort of treatment.... |
I still think this airline will fail. There are just so many things wrong with the business plan. I know the Columbus folks are all excited to have an airline, but few people are excited to travel TO Columbus (and since they're not really doing connections, that's pretty much your choice right now). For $10, people will flying anything. For $50, most will. But above that price, you'll start getting picky. I can't see higher fare biz travellers ever taking SkyBus unless there's no reasonable nonstop alternative. I think the lack of customer service will earn them huge negative publicity the first time things go wrong (and they will).
These guys would have had a shot had they located near a major metropolitan area (of course, all of those are pretty well served right now). The USA isn't Europe at the time of Ryanair's launch. There are many good lowfare alternatives. |
Originally Posted by FlyerInCmh
(Post 7782668)
According to the news, "there were some glitches, but most passengers didn't mind" and "the food is better than most airlines." But, one of the problems was that they ran out of food halfway into the flight.
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Originally Posted by headinclouds
(Post 7793261)
Don't forget that you are NOT allowed to bring your own food and drink :td: This airline is a joke. By the time you add the costs of getting from your arrival city to where you actually want to go, it will cost you more.
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Originally Posted by headinclouds
(Post 7793261)
Don't forget that you are NOT allowed to bring your own food and drink :td: This airline is a joke. By the time you add the costs of getting from your arrival city to where you actually want to go, it will cost you more.
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Originally Posted by SCChris
(Post 7793357)
I honestly don't think John/Jane Q. Vacationer think about the cost to get from the airport to their real destination, luggage fees, and the like when they buy their plane tickets. I think that besides tOSU students, they will be unlikely to get very much repeat business. Especially if they follow Ryanair's lead on irregular operations.
I agree with one of the Posters that people will fly Skybus for $10 to $50 for the hell of it (remember the foregone discounters of the 1980s and early 1990s that offered cheap, cheap flights to no where in particular). But no airline can survive on just dirt cheap flights, Independence Air tried and we see where they are today. |
Originally Posted by headinclouds
(Post 7793261)
Don't forget that you are NOT allowed to bring your own food and drink :td: This airline is a joke. By the time you add the costs of getting from your arrival city to where you actually want to go, it will cost you more.
As for arrival cities, Burbank, Oakland and other Skybus destinations are real destinations. The only true boondocks destinations are Bellingham, WA (between Seattle & Vancouver) and Portsmouth, NH. But I doubt that very many Skybus customers who are flying to these places will be surprised to learn that they still have a ways to go to get to Seattle/Vancouver or Boston. I'll bet most of them have relatives/friends who are picking them up. |
A question to the Skybus doubters:
If I had set forth Ryanair's business plan years ago, would you have been as skeptical of that as you are of Skybus's plan? You do realize that Ryanair is a financial success, right? |
I hate to wish any business bad luck, but .... Skybus is taking things too far. WN has done great things for fares (even if I generally avoid them) but it has also permitted the other airlines to reduce the standards of service. If Skybus succeeds, the majors will reduce service even further and add even more fees.
Personally, I can't see how Skybus can succeed since I don't think American's will tolerate airports being called Seattle which are a couple of hours away from Seattle or the inability to call in on the phone. On the other hand, someone willing to finance an order to 65 A319's disagrees. |
Originally Posted by dhuey
(Post 7794938)
A question to the Skybus doubters:
If I had set forth Ryanair's business plan years ago, would you have been as skeptical of that as you are of Skybus's plan? You do realize that Ryanair is a financial success, right? |
Originally Posted by J-M
(Post 7795079)
Skybus is not Ryanair, the United States is not Europe. What works there will not necessarily work here and vice versa.
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Originally Posted by C17PSGR
(Post 7795000)
I hate to wish any business bad luck, but .... Skybus is taking things too far. WN has done great things for fares (even if I generally avoid them) but it has also permitted the other airlines to reduce the standards of service. If Skybus succeeds, the majors will reduce service even further and add even more fees.
Personally, I can't see how Skybus can succeed since I don't think American's will tolerate airports being called Seattle which are a couple of hours away from Seattle or the inability to call in on the phone. On the other hand, someone willing to finance an order to 65 A319's disagrees. The issue of distance from the advertised city won't be a big deal for many. If you were going to rent a car in SEA anyways, what's the difference if you rent it in Bellingham? Gas, sure, but the vacationing family still saves money. WN customers are already willing to fly to BWI for Washington DC, or Islip for NYC. Should Skybus succeed, my guess is that Southwest is the one who will feel the squeeze. The legacies won't likely stoop to Skybus levels. Hopefully they'd be able to re-focus on their core customers and bring their service levels back up to reasonable standard. Let's not forget, Allegiant and Spirit have switched over to similar business models with apparent success. Allegiant's loads are over 80% and they just completed a pretty successful IPO. |
Originally Posted by SixAlpha
(Post 7797180)
...Hopefully they'd be able to re-focus on their core customers and bring their service levels back up to reasonable standard. ...
Skybus and perhaps others can offer the most bare bones product. Others, such as JetBlue now and Virgin America shortly, can offer interesting amenities, like in-flight entertainment systems. United's P.S. service is also pretty impressive. So many FTers worry that Skybus might cause the other carriers to race to the bottom. I don't think that will happen. |
Originally Posted by dhuey
(Post 7797979)
That's my hope as well. For too long, the domestic carriers have sold essentially the same product, with minor variations. It would be good for consumers to have a genuine choice over the level of service they get in coach.
Skybus and perhaps others can offer the most bare bones product. Others, such as JetBlue now and Virgin America shortly, can offer interesting amenities, like in-flight entertainment systems. United's P.S. service is also pretty impressive. So many FTers worry that Skybus might cause the other carriers to race to the bottom. I don't think that will happen. |
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