RJs - when will the bubble burst ?
 

Just looking at Bombardier Canadair's production of RJs in 2003. It was huge. They turned out 225 of them, which as they have produced just over 1,000 is nearly a quarter of the total they have ever built.

Almost all of them went to US major carrier affiliates, only a handful went elsewhere. So it's a huge investment at a time when the industry is in financial bad times. Even United and US Air are continuing to stock up substantially on them, and on the Embraer (who produced about 100 last year).

Notably Bombardier produced most of the standard small 50-seater, 158 of them. Only 57 of the 70-seater were produced, and only 10 of the 90-seater. Not a lot of demand for growth in size.

Turboprops seem to be dead. Total deliveries of the comparably-sized De Havilland Q400 was eight! And many of those commuter turboprops getting replaced, some only a few years old, are getting parked in Arizona unwanted.

Just because Bombardier delivered] only 57 of the 70-seaters and a mere 10 of the 90-seaters does not mean there is "not a lot of demand" for the larger models. According to Boyd and other analysts, the bubble has already burst for 50-seaters, and the largest market will soon be for 90-110 seat RJs.

Of course, the 50-seaters delivered last year (as well as the 70-seaters) were ordered several years ago. Orders placed now won't be delivered for several years in the future.