kthpence

Hi All,

I've been a Flyertalk member for a long time, and have always loved using this forum - unfortunately I haven't traveled much recently (like most / if not all of us) except for a quick trip down to Punta Mita (I'm SFO based).

I wanted to get some opinions on this, particularly from people currently living in Western Europe about planning travel for 2021. With news about the vaccines being very effective and potentially available sooner rather than later, we are hoping to head to France, Germany, Netherlands and Czech Republic in late April / early May. I have an underlying health condition and my partner is a doctor, so we'd both most likely get vaccines before the general public, which if they are 90%+ effective, I'd feel very comfortable with traveling on planes, trains, busses, etc.

My question I guess is this - what do people expect when tourism starts to pick back up in Europe in potentially late-Spring 2021 ? Will there still be no indoor dining allowed? Museums closed? Social-distancing / masking requirements (which I'm a big proponent of btw)?

We want this to be a luxurious trip (flying J on Swiss there, J on AF back), staying in nice hotels and I'm planning on proposing as well while we're there. Part of me would prefer to wait until the summer or fall when things are hopefully less serious with COVID, but I know Americans will be flocking back to Europe then and I generally don't like Europe in the summer (too hot, too crowded).

I'm not trying to spark a debate of any sort, I'm just curious what everyone's opinion is on the state of things going forward

Often1

There is not one person anywhere who can answer or predict what will happen. This is particularly so because you are looking for somewhat of a luxury vacation.

In the current circumstances, I would start thinking about when and where you want to go, but not even bother doing any serious bookings or research unil 30-45 days before intended departure. There simply are too many variables and changes.

kthpence

While I completely agree with this, I used Aeroplan points to book the outbound flight back in December of 2019 for travel in April 2020, and after that was obviously a no-go, I re-booked our flights via the old Aeroplan award chart the day before they switched to their higher redemption rates.

Now I have flights for April 19th 2021 that I can change for free, but will have to use more miles to keep J (which is unfortunate, but I have enough points), but I'm wondering if I should start making hotel and airbnb bookings now, or continue to wait until maybe 60 days out.

Scots_Al

By all means make cancellable hotel bookings - no harm in that. I wouldn’t be booking anything you can’t cancel entirely at your own behest, however.

lhrsfo

The other complication is that you are going to so many different places. If you research all of them, then pick one or, at most two, nearer the time, you are more likely to have joy. Remember that each is a (at least semi-) sovereign country in its own right. Each will have its different approaches to the pandemic and each will have its different rules. Each will have different quantities of vaccine - for example Germany has secured from the EU allocation far more doses of vaccine than any of the other countries, so you should expect it to open up much more quickly than the others. Each will have different cultural views on indoor dining and each will have different cultural views on mask wearing, so if either of these is a big issue, you need to plan on visiting the one or two that meets your requirements.

Having said all that, speaking for the UK, which I know is not on the list, the plan is to have 70+% of the population vaccinated by the end of March, assuming the Astra Zeneca one becomes available. Once you get that sort of coverage, you will see all the restrictions disappearing fast. But it's probable that there will be some form of entry requirements surrounding vaccination in place by then. You will likely see a similar pattern for other countries, depending upon how much, and which, vaccines they have bought.

LondonElite

I believe the allocation across the EU member states is proportional to their population, so while Germany will the most, because it has the highest population, it doesn't get more per capital than, for example, Belgium. I'm a bit more sceptical on the effective rollout to 70% of the population in the UK or anywhere else, given the well-known challenges.

To the OP: I agree with the others. Don't make any unchangeable plans until a month or so out, when you can assess better what is possible. I would not count on unfettered tourism in April 2021.

deniah

It is impossible to predict. In situation like this, you have seen the public health response differ from country to country and week to week, in terms of closures, quarantining, stay-at-home, etc.
https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu (click on Country)

Now if I had to bet money on it, for the Spring I would say things will be more relaxed, and some countries will allow tourism visits:
1.We have seen the mini summer spike, and will have seen the "major" winter spike, and judged effects vs responses. Without getting all tinfoil with the conclusion, just consider these two points
1a.The highly contagious nature of viruses, especially this one, and its having had time to spread
1b.Morbidity statistics, particularly age profile
2.Economic impact and whether countries than afford to continue shutting down and subsidizing businesses...

pinniped

I wouldn't book anything you can't cancel.

We have a big Asia trip booked for summer 2021. CX and a few of the other big airlines are pushing for the concept of a "vaccine passport" in the region, so right now I'm cautiously hopeful that governments will want to reopen and at least 2 of the 3 vaccines will have reached widespread manufacture/distribution by May.

Europe may be a little better bet because aren't a few countries already open with negative tests? For those would quickly add proof of vaccination as an option once that becomes a common thing.

As for dining, one advantage is that Europeans love to eat outdoors. We like to go to Paris in the absolute dead of winter and we still end up eating 2/3rds of our meals outside because that's just how the French roll. Sometimes it's almost *too* warm because the heating is so good! I've read that during the pandemic many cities have allowed restaurants to spread out a bit more than usual into sidewalks and streets, but not sure if that still holds true during the winter.

GUWonder

I have told my only-US-residing-only-US-citizen family and friends that I expect to see some of them being able to play just tourist in Europe by around July 2021 if not even somewhat earlier. I have told the skiers among them to hold off on booking any non-refundable elements for Schengen area ski trips during the winter 2020- spring 2021 ski season. [For purposes of this ski season thing, I'm not considering places in the way north of Sweden and Finland which have skiing going on at times even into mid-May (or maybe even June).]

wendyg

From what medical experts are saying, I'd expect a lot of restrictions still in April/May. Assuming all goes smoothly with at least some of the vaccines that have recently announced good pre-peer review results, by spring in most countries I would expect *some* people to be vaccinated, but probably not a majority. Like LondonElite said, I'd expect to see entry requirements into the UK - proof of vaccination, negative test, etc. Whether the UK can deliver its planned vaccination rate is unclear; this government has bungled a lot so far.

Unless the virus has spun out of control again, I would think that you might see at least some theaters open in London, for example, and outdoor dining certainly, if not indoors. However, I will bet that there will be restrictions on the number and spacing of people venues can accommodate - eg, Kew Gardens is currently restricted to 10,000 people a day, and that's outdoors. So I'd expect anything indoors - museums, galleries, theaters, etc - to still be operating on limited access, that you will have to book everything you want to do in advance, and that some things you want to do will still be impossible.

Obviously, there are lots of unknowns. I would regard what I've described as a reasonably optimistic scenario.

I'd also note that medical experts are saying once you get vaccinated you should continue to observe all the precautions you currently have in place until enough of the population has been vaccinated to confer "herd immunity". Based on that, I'd defer your plan for a while yet.

wg

lhrsfo

This is the killer, of course. I've seen reports of herd immunity requiring 70%+ vaccination rates and it's going to be very difficult to persuade 70% of the population to take a vaccine. There will be many who regard the vaccine's safety as unproven (that's relatively easy to address as an issue, but HMG's powers of persuasion have deserted them), there will be some who are anti-vaxxers and there will be many who are simply too idle and selfish to bother. The last two groups will only get the vaccine in numbers when they discover there beer-soaked holiday in Spain won't happen without proof of vaccination, so think July or August, not April.

GUWonder

All HMG in the UK has to do is offer a 500-1000 GBP bonus via HMRC to vaccinated members and we will see people rushing to get vaccinated who may not otherwise care to do so. It would be quite the economic stimulus too, something the UK will likely need given everything else that is rocking up things for the UK.

Once 10-20% of an area population gets vaccinated for this -- assuming that they are going to be mostly the most vulnerable segment of the population in the area -- the risk of opening up to tourist traffic declines tremendously and opening up to foreign traffic should be more likely. So if we have a situation with 10-20% of a national population vaccinated by mid-June, the risk of opening up to tourist traffic for July should be considered low enough that foreign visitors shouldn't pose a major risk to the country receiving foreign tourists. I am assuming the UK protocol for vaccinating is sort of like the US's: target the vaccine to protect the vulnerable and the people most likely to come into contact with the more vulnerable before going for the rest of the population.

gaobest

Based on your current health situation, I strongly endorse a long luxury vacation more local to the Sf area. Save that lux Europe trip for the honeymoon / wedding or just a bit later. I can’t promise any side effects or efficiency rates for an unknown vaccine but I’ll take it when allowed. We already live in one of the greatest areas on earth so during pandemic I’d rather stay put. Note that I last flew in March 2020 so I’m not a current flier.

garykung

While OT, don't hold your hope up. The 2 groups you mention (people with risks or healthcare) are unlikely the first to receive, even CDC has not made up its mind yet.

How about late-Winter 2021?

If the situation is improving, sure. But apparently - this is not case here.

Many American hold multiple nationalities, which the majority of them are European. So Americans going to Europe do not necessarily associate with tourism.

LondonElite

I know you are not asking this, but it is important to understand there is a difference between efficacy and efficiency, and the trial results have an efficacy of ca 90%. That does not mean they are 90% efficient.

Efficacy trials (explanatory trials) determine whether an intervention produces the expected result under ideal circumstances. Effectiveness trials (pragmatic trials) measure the degree of beneficial effect under “real world” clinical settings.