What will our points be worth when this is all over
Mar 24, 2020, 3:32 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: UA AA MR HH B6
Posts: 1,419
What will our points be worth when this is all over
Between bankruptcies, mergers, nationalization, other corporate action, its possible something happens to our points, most likely not in our favor. What do you think will happen? I'll start with I think they'll be devalued somehow 50%, either through higher redemption costs or losing the points in bankruptcy.
Mar 25, 2020, 1:08 am
#3
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Danville, CA, USA;
Programs: UA 1MM, WN CP, Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Gold, IC Plat
Posts: 15,720
From what I see points will be worth more. Right now I see seats available to popular destinations at saver level awards that I have not seen for years. And expect this will continue until planes and hotels start reaching capacity.
The smart vendors will make their products available to consumers for fewer points or cash as an empty seat or an empty room generates no revenue. And lower priced redemptions make for happy customers, who will then be favorably disposed to your brand next time they pay cash.
The smart vendors will make their products available to consumers for fewer points or cash as an empty seat or an empty room generates no revenue. And lower priced redemptions make for happy customers, who will then be favorably disposed to your brand next time they pay cash.
Mar 25, 2020, 9:08 am
#5
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Earth. Residency:HKG formerly:YYZ
Programs: CX, DL, Nexus/GE, APEC
Posts: 10,687
Mar 25, 2020, 12:26 pm
#7
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,570
My deepest stash right now is in AS because the pandemic caused me to cancel 4x CX round-trips I had planned for a family vacation this week.
I'm hoping a window opens to use those miles to rebook for late spring 2021. I already expect the miles to eventually devalue as AS aligns its award chart to OW.
On the hotel side, I have a million HH - also thanks to canceling 700+k in bookings at Asian Conrads. Those points don't have a lot of individual value to begin with, so I'm just trying to use them to stay at the best properties I can find - places I otherwise wouldn't actually spend cash on. W=A's, the better Conrads, etc. Hotels that are 475k for 5 nights and $500-700 room rates. Since I don't regularly spend $500/nt on hotels, I don't really care what the theoretical value is....I just enjoy the stays.
I'm hoping a window opens to use those miles to rebook for late spring 2021. I already expect the miles to eventually devalue as AS aligns its award chart to OW.
On the hotel side, I have a million HH - also thanks to canceling 700+k in bookings at Asian Conrads. Those points don't have a lot of individual value to begin with, so I'm just trying to use them to stay at the best properties I can find - places I otherwise wouldn't actually spend cash on. W=A's, the better Conrads, etc. Hotels that are 475k for 5 nights and $500-700 room rates. Since I don't regularly spend $500/nt on hotels, I don't really care what the theoretical value is....I just enjoy the stays.
Mar 25, 2020, 1:35 pm
#8
Join Date: Jun 2019
Programs: Marriott Titanium; WN A-list; UA Silver
Posts: 481
I think there's going to be winners and losers. If the company with points goes away, the points are gone. If the company is acquired, I'd expect the points to possibly be incorporated in the buying company's system, possible at a steep devaluation.
If the company you have points with survives without bankruptcy, I'd actually expect your values to remain or even increase. If this is a 9/11 type situation that kills loadfactors over a long term or even a 2008 situation that reduces load factors, airlines will have a lot more empty seats (or rooms or cars). They will want to fill those seats. If they can't find cash buyers, they will happily accept points, particularly as many points are effectively a discounted cash transaction as many people get points from credit cards who pay the airlines for the points.
If the company you have points with survives without bankruptcy, I'd actually expect your values to remain or even increase. If this is a 9/11 type situation that kills loadfactors over a long term or even a 2008 situation that reduces load factors, airlines will have a lot more empty seats (or rooms or cars). They will want to fill those seats. If they can't find cash buyers, they will happily accept points, particularly as many points are effectively a discounted cash transaction as many people get points from credit cards who pay the airlines for the points.
Apr 1, 2020, 12:32 pm
#9
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 237
I will have to start thinking of how to keep points active. Two hotel programs, I burned all of my points by chance. Of the major US airlines, DL and UA and WN don't expire but AA does. Luckily, I have an AA credit card so spending will keep it active. Hertz points, I have enough for a few days of car rental so I need to keep an eye on expiration.
Apr 3, 2020, 4:38 pm
#11
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: SJC/SFO
Programs: UA lifetime gold; Hilton Gold; Marriott/SPG Plat; Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,954
I assume many airlines will file for bankruptcy and we will loose points
In the best case scenario, I think our points/miles will be less valuable. Airlines and hotels will have to raise cash quickly and will just drop the prices and limit use of points/miles.
my 2 cents
Bonvoyed
Apr 17, 2020, 9:40 am
#13
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: ELP
Programs: AAdvantage, Amex MR
Posts: 2,314
Hard to say, one thing for sure I would not be buying any points. Been seeing in my emails AA is trying to promote a good mileage sale, but I dont trust it. Sure they want me to buy miles now, but watch a year from now they become lucy with the football with a devaluation.