Calculating the benefits of carry-on only
May 11, 2019, 3:41 pm
#61
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 167
Hi guys
Current assumptions:
Carry-on limit 7000g
Bag weight 1500g (I'm averaging a range of bags)
Actual Luggage Capacity (ALC): 5500g
Laptop: 1500g (assuming a late model laptop with charger)
First aid / cosmetic allowance: 500g
ALC Remaining for Clothes: 3500g
Weight of Daily Clothing Ration (Shirt, Socks, Underwear): 300g (weighed light weight t-shirts, socks, underwear)
Potential Max Clothing: 11.7 days
(note: I have assumed NO shoes and NO spare pants in this; the only pants and shoes are those worn on board)
Any suggested adjustments? Am I being too generous with the low-weight assumptions for the clothes - should I include allowance for pants, shoes, jackets?
Process variances:
1. Checked luggage requires waiting for luggage at the destination; assumed delay 60 minutes (is there any process variation at the embarking airport? checkin times are the same from what I can see)
2. Non-checked will need to clean laundry as it becomes dirty; assumed overall duration cleaning/drying 180 minutes BUT not all of this requires active participation
Other assumptions:
1. The 500 g first aid/cosmetics allowance precludes the need for sundry purchases (headache meds etc); assuming same for both checked/non-checked
2. Luggage is never lost. If required I can assign a probability score to this, but believe me, rounding will destroy it.
3. No difference in cost to/from airport (some posters have mentioned that with carry on, you can take transit rather than get a cab)
Current assumptions:
Carry-on limit 7000g
Bag weight 1500g (I'm averaging a range of bags)
Actual Luggage Capacity (ALC): 5500g
Laptop: 1500g (assuming a late model laptop with charger)
First aid / cosmetic allowance: 500g
ALC Remaining for Clothes: 3500g
Weight of Daily Clothing Ration (Shirt, Socks, Underwear): 300g (weighed light weight t-shirts, socks, underwear)
Potential Max Clothing: 11.7 days
(note: I have assumed NO shoes and NO spare pants in this; the only pants and shoes are those worn on board)
Any suggested adjustments? Am I being too generous with the low-weight assumptions for the clothes - should I include allowance for pants, shoes, jackets?
Process variances:
1. Checked luggage requires waiting for luggage at the destination; assumed delay 60 minutes (is there any process variation at the embarking airport? checkin times are the same from what I can see)
2. Non-checked will need to clean laundry as it becomes dirty; assumed overall duration cleaning/drying 180 minutes BUT not all of this requires active participation
Other assumptions:
1. The 500 g first aid/cosmetics allowance precludes the need for sundry purchases (headache meds etc); assuming same for both checked/non-checked
2. Luggage is never lost. If required I can assign a probability score to this, but believe me, rounding will destroy it.
3. No difference in cost to/from airport (some posters have mentioned that with carry on, you can take transit rather than get a cab)
May 11, 2019, 5:51 pm
#62
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Ontario, Canada
Programs: Aeroplan, IHG, Enterprise, Avios, Nexus
Posts: 8,355
Your weight assumption is too low. 7 kilos? 15.4 pounds? Most are above that.
https://travel-made-simple.com/carry-on-size-chart/
You may also be too light on the weight of the bag. Most rollers are over 1.5kg.
https://travel-made-simple.com/carry-on-size-chart/
You may also be too light on the weight of the bag. Most rollers are over 1.5kg.
May 11, 2019, 8:38 pm
#63
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 42,033
60 minutes? My average wait is less than 5 minutes, and some airports, the luggage typically beats me to the belt.
May 11, 2019, 10:42 pm
#65
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 167
Hi all,
After spending a few frustrating hours with Excel I came up with a very ugly model that I then spent a much more rewarding ten minutes simplifying.
In simple terms, you need three variables:
x = number of airport "cycles" (i.e. an A-B, B-A trip is 2 cycles)
d = length of stay in days
n = number of daily rations of clothes
For x values of 2 or less, if d>n, checked luggage wins. For greater x values, using my 60 minute wait cycle, multiple n by (0.375x number of cycles) to get an adjusted n value (i.e. for a trip A -> B, B->C, C-> B, B->A, your n value is 4x0.375=1.5n - 10 days of clothes becomes 15).
After spending a few frustrating hours with Excel I came up with a very ugly model that I then spent a much more rewarding ten minutes simplifying.
In simple terms, you need three variables:
x = number of airport "cycles" (i.e. an A-B, B-A trip is 2 cycles)
d = length of stay in days
n = number of daily rations of clothes
For x values of 2 or less, if d>n, checked luggage wins. For greater x values, using my 60 minute wait cycle, multiple n by (0.375x number of cycles) to get an adjusted n value (i.e. for a trip A -> B, B->C, C-> B, B->A, your n value is 4x0.375=1.5n - 10 days of clothes becomes 15).
May 11, 2019, 11:05 pm
#66
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 42,033
As suggested, I don't think 60 minutes are common anywhere. PDX has the slowest bag delivery I know of, and even there, the can usually beat 20 minutes. I suppose I am blessed because all of the airports on my circuit (SHA, HKG, PVG, SZX, NNG, JAX, DCA) are fast.
Another thing I mentioned up thread that is hard to quantify is the annoyance factor of lugging your bag through the airport and babysitting it when you're in the lounge or the food court.
Another thing I mentioned up thread that is hard to quantify is the annoyance factor of lugging your bag through the airport and babysitting it when you're in the lounge or the food court.
May 11, 2019, 11:34 pm
#67
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Boulder
Programs: AA Plat, CX Silver
Posts: 2,361
As suggested, I don't think 60 minutes are common anywhere. PDX has the slowest bag delivery I know of, and even there, the can usually beat 20 minutes. I suppose I am blessed because all of the airports on my circuit (SHA, HKG, PVG, SZX, NNG, JAX, DCA) are fast.
Another thing I mentioned up thread that is hard to quantify is the annoyance factor of lugging your bag through the airport and babysitting it when you're in the lounge or the food court.
Another thing I mentioned up thread that is hard to quantify is the annoyance factor of lugging your bag through the airport and babysitting it when you're in the lounge or the food court.
May 12, 2019, 4:49 am
#69
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Ontario, Canada
Programs: Aeroplan, IHG, Enterprise, Avios, Nexus
Posts: 8,355
On an international flight much of that 60 minutes will be taken up by customs and immigration policy. I'd also question a 60 minutes average wait time from the moment of arriving at the carousel. I can't recall the last time I waited an hour unless there was a problem like a labor disruption or equipment malfunction. I can however recall many times finding my bag had arrived in the pick-up area before I got there.
May 12, 2019, 12:49 pm
#70
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,884
On an international flight much of that 60 minutes will be taken up by customs and immigration policy. I'd also question a 60 minutes average wait time from the moment of arriving at the carousel. I can't recall the last time I waited an hour unless there was a problem like a labor disruption or equipment malfunction. I can however recall many times finding my bag had arrived in the pick-up area before I got there.
I fly Delta primarily, mostly domestic, between 135 and 180 segments per year for the last 4 years. I check either one or two bags every trip and have traveled to, from, or through 64 different airports in that time. My bag has been "lost" one time, when it failed to make a connection in DTW. I picked it up the next morning at MHT because I was staying right next to the airport and it was quicker than waiting for delivery. Looking at my most recent records, Delta has missed their "bags on time guarantee" (20 minutes) 10 times in the last 12 months. Of those 10, only one was greater than 30 minutes - and that was the one that was 'lost'.
Delta's 20 minute guarantee starts from when the door opens at arrival, so a portion of that time is consumed while I get myself to the baggage carousel. It is extremely rare that I would wait more than 5 or 10 minutes.
For the people who want to support the 'no checked bag' position with math, they really should exclude the walk to baggage claim from their "time advantage" calculation since they make that trip regardless of whether they carry on (though they make that trip dragging their bag, while my bag is comfortably chauffeured...).
Last edited by Qwkynuf; May 13, 2019 at 7:19 am Reason: Left a word out
May 13, 2019, 11:52 am
#72
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 13,573
You cannot possibly survive for 11-15 days with 1 pair of pants / trousers. For a start, what do you propose wearing while the trousers are being cleaned? Most hotels do a late same day, or next day service, 180 minutes door to door isn't my experience. How about sleepwear - I won't sleep naked in a hotel, in case of an emergency, someone gaining access to the room etc. Many places, tropics aside, will require a sweater, jacket or similar. You will need to add collared shirts for many restaurants. A swim suit might also be essential for some - I don't travel without mine. Others may need workout gear / running shoes etc. I would also be carrying, every trip without exception, an ipad and its charger, and 2 phones and their cables and chargers. You may also need plug adapters. My electronics bag including chargers and adapters can easily weigh half a kilo.
Additionally, I can't remember ever waiting for bags for more than 60 minutes (anything over 15 and I start getting really annoyed). In many instances, especially in airports with distant gates, the bag beats me to the carousel. My longest immigration wait in recent years was in Punta Cana, which was a zoo, and even that I think was under and hour, and applied to everyone, hand luggage only or not. Under 10 minutes from when I reach the carousel is what I consider normal for bag delivery (with walk time, immigration and customs time, etc. being the same for checked and non checked luggage alike, so zeroes out).
Additionally, I can't remember ever waiting for bags for more than 60 minutes (anything over 15 and I start getting really annoyed). In many instances, especially in airports with distant gates, the bag beats me to the carousel. My longest immigration wait in recent years was in Punta Cana, which was a zoo, and even that I think was under and hour, and applied to everyone, hand luggage only or not. Under 10 minutes from when I reach the carousel is what I consider normal for bag delivery (with walk time, immigration and customs time, etc. being the same for checked and non checked luggage alike, so zeroes out).
May 14, 2019, 1:23 am
#73
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: San Diego, CA
Programs: GE, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 15,507
Maybe I missed it in earlier posts, but wouldn't the checked bag fee (if any) be a big factor as well? For instance, US carriers seem to charge around $30 per bag right now; assuming a round trip flight, would paying $60 be worth not having to e.g. do laundry at the hotel?
That said, I do place a fair bit of value in not having to wait around at the baggage claim.
That said, I do place a fair bit of value in not having to wait around at the baggage claim.
May 15, 2019, 1:07 am
#75
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 969
Your weight assumption is too low. 7 kilos? 15.4 pounds? Most are above that.
https://travel-made-simple.com/carry-on-size-chart/
https://travel-made-simple.com/carry-on-size-chart/