Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Travel&Dining > TravelBuzz
Reload this Page >

Calculating the benefits of carry-on only

Calculating the benefits of carry-on only

Reply

Old May 23, 19, 4:23 am
  #106  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Programs: UA Million Miler
Posts: 1,203
Curious that such a question could elicit a long thread. OK maybe not.

I find the time at the baggage carousel to be low productivity time. You don't know how long it will be though hopefully not too long. Often standing among lots of people. When luggage comes out you are looking at the bags. It is not pleasant and far from comparing to time at a Starbucks or equivalent. It is mostly a write-off and to be avoided.

I've never lost a checked bag though maybe 20 times in my lifetime the bag did not arrive on my flight and was later delivered by a courier I think always within 24 hours.
I've lost a couple of things in checked bag though nothing too valuable though once a gift item ($10 value) was missing in the checked bag.
My clothes tends to be expensive (e.g., a suit costs about $2000) so while it would have little resale/market value (not much of a target for stealing) it is highly valuable to me. Losing it would be painful and not an item that you can just pick up at the mall at the last minute.
AlanInDC is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 19, 1:40 pm
  #107  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Southern California
Programs: AA EXPlat; HHonors Diamond
Posts: 480
Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet View Post
Always carry-on only. No worries about lost bags, no waiting for bags to come out after a long flight.
+1. And I'll add that I usually find that I have overpacked!
catcher1 is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 19, 3:34 pm
  #108  
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: SJC/SFO
Programs: UA 1MM/*A Gold, WN A+ CP, Mar LT Tit, IHG Plat, HH Gold
Posts: 5,185
Time waiting for bags is sometimes overlapped by time waiting in queue for passport control. Generally I'm more willing to check a bag on a foreign trip because by the time I clear passport control my bag is already on the conveyor belt or is just arriving. Of course, this is not true traveling between countries in the Schengen zone, nor has it been true of my arrivals home since enrolling in US Global Entry a few years ago.
darthbimmer is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 24, 19, 2:25 am
  #109  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 122
Originally Posted by moondog View Post
Spending 10 minutes on email while waiting for your bag is no different than doing the same at a Starbucks.

When you started this thread, you posed the issue as a question, giving me the impression that you were genuinely interested in feedback. However, it's increasingly apparent that you have strong views, which you were hoping the forum would validate.

​​​​​​
I did take feedback, and as noted earlier, after a fairly substantial bit of analysis arrived at my three-value equation.

I have no preference either way, but I refuse to let someone completely invalidate a core principle of this sort of analysis, that time saved is value gained.
There are people here saying that avoiding time at a luggage carousel is irrelevant.
This basic truth is fundamental to so many policy decisions. Time is indeed money. Or, more correctly, time is utility, which can be analogised as money.
Sometimes, carry-on saves time. And yes, sometimes checked luggage gets lost. But a sober analysis compares the 100% probability of various time effects and the almost infinitesimal chance of luggage being lost.
akl_traveller is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 24, 19, 4:33 am
  #110  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 29,065
While I have a marginal preference for Starbucks v the baggage claim area, I do the EXACT same thing at both places

Last edited by moondog; May 24, 19 at 5:21 pm
moondog is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 24, 19, 5:53 am
  #111  
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Prince Edward Island
Programs: Aeroplan Black, Hilton Honors Gold, Marriott Gold, Mlife Pearl
Posts: 1,355
Originally Posted by akl_traveller View Post
Time is indeed money. Or, more correctly, time is utility, which can be analogised as money.
I agree that, in many cases, time = $ but does your "sober analysis" also include the fact that $ = $, and that for many people, $ > time?

You are not only saving time by not checking a bag but you are also saving the checked bag fee that many airlines now charge. I think that's a prime motivating factor as many people don't mind spending an extra half-hour at the carousel because they view that as an acceptable cost for the convenience of packing extra luggage and having someone else handle it. However, many of the same people aren't willing to pay the airline $35/bag for the same convenience.
Low Roller is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 24, 19, 12:50 pm
  #112  
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: SJC/SFO
Programs: UA 1MM/*A Gold, WN A+ CP, Mar LT Tit, IHG Plat, HH Gold
Posts: 5,185
Originally Posted by akl_traveller View Post
Sometimes, carry-on saves time. And yes, sometimes checked luggage gets lost. But a sober analysis compares the 100% probability of various time effects and the almost infinitesimal chance of luggage being lost.
The chance of luggage being delay or lost is not infinitesimal. This recent article shows that among the 4 largest US carriers the rate is about 2.5 lost bags per 1000 passengers. I hesitate to say that means "0.25% chance" as many passengers check no bags. The chance of loss for those who do check is arguably much higher.

It's also unclear whether that figure counts only bags that are truly lost (i.e., never delivered) or includes bags that are delivered hours or days later. Personally, I've never had a bag lost-lost but I have experienced delayed delivery a few times. From experience I can tell you that it's a real drag on my productivity/enjoyment during the trip -- and that's even with me carefully packing into a carry-on high-value items (laptops, cameras, etc.) and anything I expect to need in the first 24 hours.
darthbimmer is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 24, 19, 7:41 pm
  #113  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 6,989
Originally Posted by akl_traveller View Post
I have no preference either way, but I refuse to let someone completely invalidate a core principle of this sort of analysis, that time saved is value gained.
There are people here saying that avoiding time at a luggage carousel is irrelevant.
This basic truth is fundamental to so many policy decisions. Time is indeed money. Or, more correctly, time is utility, which can be analogised as money.
Once again, your blinkered approach fails to grasp that the time may be spent beneficially, effectively getting the time back later on.
ft101 is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 24, 19, 8:15 pm
  #114  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 29,065
Originally Posted by ft101 View Post
Once again, your blinkered approach fails to grasp that the time may be spent beneficially, effectively getting the time back later on.
+1

While I think it's cool -- admirable, even -- that the OP took this challenge upon himself, his 3 variable approach simply doesn't reflect the complete picture.

In my case, there is NO benefit to schlepping my bag 1.6 km from check-in to gate at SZX just so I can escape SHA 3 minutes faster.
moondog is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 26, 19, 7:22 am
  #115  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 16
Lost is not an issue for me, it happens infrequently enough as to not be much of a hastle, it's the theft and rifling that bother me the most, even if items are not stolen it is an invasion of privacy when an an unauthorized search is done (TSA would be authorized), no good statistics exists but based on my personal records 80%+ of my bags have had thier zipper opened not by TSA (I do not count events where a TSA note is left)..
Nhilar is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 26, 19, 8:12 am
  #116  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: VPS
Programs: IHG Spire
Posts: 3,746
Originally Posted by Qwkynuf View Post

I fly Delta primarily, mostly domestic, between 135 and 180 segments per year for the last 4 years. I check either one or two bags every trip and have traveled to, from, or through 64 different airports in that time. My bag has been "lost" one time, when it failed to make a connection in DTW. I picked it up the next morning at MHT because I was staying right next to the airport and it was quicker than waiting for delivery. Looking at my most recent records, Delta has missed their "bags on time guarantee" (20 minutes) 10 times in the last 12 months. Of those 10, only one was greater than 30 minutes - and that was the one that was 'lost'.

Delta's 20 minute guarantee starts from when the door opens at arrival, so a portion of that time is consumed while I get myself to the baggage carousel. It is extremely rare that I would wait more than 5 or 10 minutes.
Another person who primarily flies Delta here. My small home airport has contract ramp agents and hiring has not kept up with passenger growth at the airport. I start the timer on my watch when the door chime goes off, and the time distribution is about 67% under 20 minutes to carousel, and 33% 21-27 minutes to carousel. Figure 15 minutes to deplane, use the toilets, etc. after the chime, and a value of a penny per Skymiles, and I'm making $25 from the bag guarantee for the 7 minutes of wait time on a 22 minute to carousel arrival.
beachmouse is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 26, 19, 8:28 am
  #117  
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: SJC/SFO
Programs: UA 1MM/*A Gold, WN A+ CP, Mar LT Tit, IHG Plat, HH Gold
Posts: 5,185
Originally Posted by Nhilar View Post
Lost is not an issue for me, it happens infrequently enough as to not be much of a hastle, it's the theft and rifling that bother me the most, even if items are not stolen it is an invasion of privacy when an an unauthorized search is done (TSA would be authorized), no good statistics exists but based on my personal records 80%+ of my bags have had thier zipper opened not by TSA (I do not count events where a TSA note is left)..
How do you detect bag zipper openings?
darthbimmer is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 26, 19, 8:41 am
  #118  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 29,065
Originally Posted by darthbimmer View Post
How do you detect bag zipper openings?
You didn't ask me, but whenever flying to or through airports like MNL, I place a piece of tape or a sticker on the zipper.
moondog is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 26, 19, 9:41 am
  #119  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 16
Originally Posted by darthbimmer View Post
How do you detect bag zipper openings?
I use metal hvac tape on the inside in 3 places, as I am zippering closed I carefully reach in and place the tape, when I open it, I carefully check the state of the tape. I have tested such a setup by throwing the bag from a great height, dragging it behind my car and jumping on it like the samsonite gorilla...the tape always remained enmeshed in the zipper hidden from view...if the tape has been disturbed, someone without question opened the bag.
Nhilar is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old May 26, 19, 5:37 pm
  #120  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Kitchener, ON, Canada
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 1,215
Originally Posted by moondog View Post
60 minutes? My average wait is less than 5 minutes, and some airports, the luggage typically beats me to the belt.
You've never flown into Toronto, have you?
Boogie711 is offline  
Reply With Quote

Thread Tools
Search this Thread