Is there still a future for the A380 ?
Dec 21, 2018, 11:26 am
#1
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 552
Is there still a future for the A380 ?
The latest years, A380 sales and production is declining. Airbus builds only 6 pieces a year, and only because EK still uses them. Thanks to EK, they are still being built at all. The handful of other A380 operators (KE, SQ, TG, MH, QF, EY, QR, AF, BA and LH, all in Asia, ME and Europe) did not order any new planes. And the announced A380+ with lower fuel consumption and 11 abreast, is not a success, even EK does not want it.
What is it in this era of mass air travel and huge airports like SIN with Terminal 5, the new PEK Capital airport and several others ? A large plane for a busy route could be more efficient than two smaller planes like a 787 or 350 carrying only half the passengers number ?
But newer large twin engine aircraft like the 787-10 or 350-1000 will compete the 380 away when double deck is not important.
Modern aircraft are all twin engine, except the 340, which is a 4 engine plane which is not a big success and competed away by 330, 350, 777 and 787. The only successful quad engine wide bodies were the 707 and the jumbo, the latter still in service with some airlines, but these are based on a 1950s, 60s, 70s design with some design refurbishments (747-400 and 747-8).
To keep a full length double deck aircraft in the market would only be feasible with really lower fuel consumption and I bet a twin engine 380 can make this, but at a (unbearable ?) cost of a full redesign of the aircraft.
What is it in this era of mass air travel and huge airports like SIN with Terminal 5, the new PEK Capital airport and several others ? A large plane for a busy route could be more efficient than two smaller planes like a 787 or 350 carrying only half the passengers number ?
But newer large twin engine aircraft like the 787-10 or 350-1000 will compete the 380 away when double deck is not important.
Modern aircraft are all twin engine, except the 340, which is a 4 engine plane which is not a big success and competed away by 330, 350, 777 and 787. The only successful quad engine wide bodies were the 707 and the jumbo, the latter still in service with some airlines, but these are based on a 1950s, 60s, 70s design with some design refurbishments (747-400 and 747-8).
To keep a full length double deck aircraft in the market would only be feasible with really lower fuel consumption and I bet a twin engine 380 can make this, but at a (unbearable ?) cost of a full redesign of the aircraft.
Dec 21, 2018, 12:18 pm
#3
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The latest years, A380 sales and production is declining. Airbus builds only 6 pieces a year, and only because EK still uses them. Thanks to EK, they are still being built at all. The handful of other A380 operators (KE, SQ, TG, MH, QF, EY, QR, AF, BA and LH, all in Asia, ME and Europe) did not order any new planes. And the announced A380+ with lower fuel consumption and 11 abreast, is not a success, even EK does not want it.
What is it in this era of mass air travel and huge airports like SIN with Terminal 5, the new PEK Capital airport and several others ? A large plane for a busy route could be more efficient than two smaller planes like a 787 or 350 carrying only half the passengers number ?
But newer large twin engine aircraft like the 787-10 or 350-1000 will compete the 380 away when double deck is not important.
Modern aircraft are all twin engine, except the 340, which is a 4 engine plane which is not a big success and competed away by 330, 350, 777 and 787. The only successful quad engine wide bodies were the 707 and the jumbo, the latter still in service with some airlines, but these are based on a 1950s, 60s, 70s design with some design refurbishments (747-400 and 747-8).
To keep a full length double deck aircraft in the market would only be feasible with really lower fuel consumption and I bet a twin engine 380 can make this, but at a (unbearable ?) cost of a full redesign of the aircraft.
What is it in this era of mass air travel and huge airports like SIN with Terminal 5, the new PEK Capital airport and several others ? A large plane for a busy route could be more efficient than two smaller planes like a 787 or 350 carrying only half the passengers number ?
But newer large twin engine aircraft like the 787-10 or 350-1000 will compete the 380 away when double deck is not important.
Modern aircraft are all twin engine, except the 340, which is a 4 engine plane which is not a big success and competed away by 330, 350, 777 and 787. The only successful quad engine wide bodies were the 707 and the jumbo, the latter still in service with some airlines, but these are based on a 1950s, 60s, 70s design with some design refurbishments (747-400 and 747-8).
To keep a full length double deck aircraft in the market would only be feasible with really lower fuel consumption and I bet a twin engine 380 can make this, but at a (unbearable ?) cost of a full redesign of the aircraft.
Dec 21, 2018, 1:47 pm
#5
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I think there's a future for high-volume long-haul routes. Airbus seems to have overestimated that market, so they've sold/are selling the number of planes needed to meet that reduced demands. Plus, technology evolutions are making less expensive planes that can fly most of these routes.
So yes, there's a future, it's not not as big as initially expected.
I'd suggest that discussions on that would be a different topic.
So yes, there's a future, it's not not as big as initially expected.
I'd suggest that discussions on that would be a different topic.
Last edited by CPRich; Dec 21, 2018 at 8:05 pm
Dec 21, 2018, 2:47 pm
#6
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There were other wide body aircraft manufacturers in the 1970's.
Aircraft development / size has followed engine development. Engines have had thrust & fuel consumption improvements and engine life, reliability, maintenance and real time monitoring changes. Modern engines can do 10's of thousand's of hours on wing before needing to be removed for overhaul (or scrapping). We are now seeing the results of these large twin engines: a few decades ago these engines were not available.
Last edited by Mwenenzi; Dec 21, 2018 at 2:52 pm
Dec 21, 2018, 3:05 pm
#7
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not when EK is 'only' customer as described above
if its case of EY managing (abu dhabi previously bailed out dubai)
EY is flag carrier / national airline of UAE, even though EK is bigger
EY 10 A380 0 order vs EK 109 A380 53 order
if its case of EY managing (abu dhabi previously bailed out dubai)
EY is flag carrier / national airline of UAE, even though EK is bigger
EY 10 A380 0 order vs EK 109 A380 53 order
Last edited by Kagehitokiri; Dec 21, 2018 at 3:10 pm
Dec 21, 2018, 8:07 pm
#8
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No, "what is happening with EK and EY possibly merging " is a very broad, all-encompassing topic. If you want to discuss the impact of a potential EK/EY merger on the ordering of A380's, feel free.
Dec 22, 2018, 10:45 am
#9
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Dec 22, 2018, 9:02 pm
#10
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ANA are expecting to introduce them into service next year, and there are a further 30 - 40 outstanding orders excluding Emirates. Some of these will probably be cancelled but even the 8 Qantas have on order is over a years production.
Dec 23, 2018, 11:21 am
#11
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I just found an interesting video of a pilot (presumably seen by his clothing) who tells about the jumbo (747) and the A380, and why they are failing.
It is the declining 'hub and spoke' system in favor of the 'point to point' system, which is more served by widebody twinjets like 777, 787 and 350 (and 330 in lesser extent).
And he also explains that the 380 is profitable for EK, because DXB has a very 'central' location in the world which can act as a hub as they have long haul flights from Europe, Africa connecting to long hauls in Asia and Australia. And from Asia to N America via DXB. 80% of the world's population is within 8 flying hours from DXB.
However, why do EY and QR not take advantage of almost the same 'central' geographcal position of AUH and DOH ?
It is the declining 'hub and spoke' system in favor of the 'point to point' system, which is more served by widebody twinjets like 777, 787 and 350 (and 330 in lesser extent).
And he also explains that the 380 is profitable for EK, because DXB has a very 'central' location in the world which can act as a hub as they have long haul flights from Europe, Africa connecting to long hauls in Asia and Australia. And from Asia to N America via DXB. 80% of the world's population is within 8 flying hours from DXB.
However, why do EY and QR not take advantage of almost the same 'central' geographcal position of AUH and DOH ?
Dec 23, 2018, 8:59 pm
#12
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Any reason for omitting OZ and CZ?
Dec 24, 2018, 4:42 pm
#13
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What do you mean? QR and EY do take advantage of their location the same way Emirates do, like Emirates their entire business model is offering connections between Europe/Africa/Asia. Emirates was just first to the party and have been the most successful at it so far, and as such EY and QR have been playing catch-up with varying degrees of success.
Dec 25, 2018, 12:52 am
#14
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That video is from Mentour Pilot. He's a pilot for Ryanair IIRC and flies 737s. He does really good videos on a wide variety of aviation related topics.
Personally I think the A380 will be around for a nother decade or so before like the 747 it fades into aviation history. That said I am looking forward to flying on a 380 next spring. Too bad I'll be stuck in the back.
Personally I think the A380 will be around for a nother decade or so before like the 747 it fades into aviation history. That said I am looking forward to flying on a 380 next spring. Too bad I'll be stuck in the back.