Future of the 747-800?
 

Do we know how many orders for the passenger version have been placed and by what airlines? Any information on when delivery is expected. I would hate to see the 747 vanish from the skies when all the 744's are phased out. Also, should these go into service in any meaningful #'s, I'd love to schedule a flight on one. Any prospects for increased future orders?

LH and KE are the only passenger airlines who have confirmed orders for the 747-8i.

You can go on a tour of the assembly line - more than just the regular commercial tour that is offered - as part of StarMegaDo later in November if you're interested.

There are a number of cargo carriers who have ordered the freighter variant of the new stretch model.

If the A380 gains more success, as it seems to be doing based on the happy carriers who are operating it, the 747-800 should begin to gain some traction too. It is still smaller than the A380 and is a Boeing, which suits a few carriers. I wager both will be successful eventually, but it will take some time to generate the momentum. remember the 747-800 project was not a blank-sheet project, so Boeing does not need a huge order book to make a successful commercial project of it. The freighters will carry lots of overhead so Boeing can be very price-competitive in it's offers. You'll end out being able to fly in one I think.

There is a lot of vested interest on the part of major carriers due to the presumption that the amount of retraining to go from piloting a 744 to piloting a 748 would be, in theory, significantly less than the amount of retraining to go from a 744 to piloting an A380. Pilots' unions could also pressure for 748 over A380, at least among carriers in which pilots' unions exert pressure relating to those types of decisions.

A success for who? The airlines or Airbus?

It may indeed help Airbus. It was clearly a me-too "how close can we come without spending much money?" response to the A380, which effectively validated Airbus's analysis of the market. (So much for "nobody wants anything that large any more.") Some airlines in the Airbus camp may now find the A380 more of a competitive necessity than they would have otherwise.

(BTW, for all its advanced technology, the 747's wings are too swept at 37.5 degrees for optimum efficiency. Boeing knows this: the 787 wing has a lower sweep angle like the A380's, both around 33 degrees. The earlier 747-500, -600 and -700 proposals also all included new wings with less sweep, but design, test and certification of a totally new wing would have cost too much for the minimum-cost enhancement concept, so Boeing was stuck with the basic design. They changed the flaps and wingtips, but not much more. The highly swept wing is one reason some observers find the 747 family more attractive than the A380, but when it comes to a choice between attractiveness and efficiency, airlines will go for efficiency every time.)

It's a shame that United, one of the two major U.S. airlines to operate 747s, decided (so far) not to buy the 747-800. I will miss it!

I don't see how it can help Airbus. The original breakeven point for orders was somewhere north of 400 aircraft, and that was before the delays and repayments back to the airlines that ordered it. I heard the break even point is now more than twice that number.

For airlines it may work out. But for the life of my I have no idea how one airline is going to use 90 of them.

Clearly, the airlines. For Airbus success will be a long time coming, but as with many long-delayed projects, it probably will make money in the end. The 787 will also take far longer to make money than planned, but it has financial success well in sight, while the A380 will depend on many more sales. if the recent discussion of ~250 aircraft to break even is still true they are fairly close based on the current order book, with Emirates contributing 97 of the total.

All te recent projects have many of the same suppliers and some of the same parts (787 and A380 share the same cabin pressure controller supplier, for example) so everyone involved, including both Boeing and Airbus, wants them all to be successful, however virulent their competition may be otherwise.

If LH replaces their outdated 744's with the newer model, including AVOD in every seat I would hope, I might actually start flying them TATL again.

If things like seats and video are the issue, it's a lot cheaper to replace cabin interiors than airframes.

I'd be willing to try a less convenient NYC-FRA routing TATL with LH to try out the 748 if they order them as well.

I agree. How about LH will put 748 from FRA-LAX/DEN/SFO? Is that LH will choose for which the specific routes. I think its sounds a logical choice.

On the Asia side of LH's counterpart in A380 and 748i orders is KE. I wonder where KE will be flying their A380s and 748is in their route network?

I have absolutely no idea where KE or LH will next introduce newest A380 or B7478I.