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Indian Airlines - $2.2bn Airbus order.

Indian Airlines - $2.2bn Airbus order.

Old Sep 7, 05, 6:33 am
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Indian Airlines - $2.2bn Airbus order.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4221928.stm

Indian Airlines will buy 43 planes from European producer Airbus in a deal worth $2.2bn (1.2bn).

Another decent sized order for Airbus.
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Old Sep 7, 05, 9:03 am
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India is going to need to see triple or even quadruple figure growth to support the sheer number of planes - Airbus and Boeing - going into the market. We're talking hundreds of narrowbodies and widebodies over the next five years going into service.

It's making the Middle Eastern carriers - who have their own massive orders from both suppliers on tap - looking almosy conservative.
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Old Sep 7, 05, 9:25 am
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Originally Posted by SEA_Tigger
India is going to need to see triple or even quadruple figure growth to support the sheer number of planes - Airbus and Boeing - going into the market. We're talking hundreds of narrowbodies and widebodies over the next five years going into service.

It's making the Middle Eastern carriers - who have their own massive orders from both suppliers on tap - looking almosy conservative.
With a population almost 3 times the size of the US, it could be feasible.
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Old Sep 7, 05, 9:39 am
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Originally Posted by USA_flyer
With a population almost 3 times the size of the US, it could be feasible.
3.5 times and heading towards 4 times the US population (297million vs. 1,080 million).

The Indian rail system transports 5 billion passengers annually - there's certainly people moving about India. Just converting a small chunk of those passengers would be a sizable market for airlines. Scaling the infrastructure to handle the 300 or so planes ordered is a different issue, and one I'm glad I don't have to deal with.
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Old Sep 7, 05, 10:19 am
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Oh I am well aware India as the bodies.

But do those bodies have the cashflow?

Indian air transport is rising rapidly because it is so much faster then taking the train, but I imagine it is also more expensive. While air traffic is up 25%, it is still only 6-7 million a year - and the trains carry that many a day.

And as this article at BBC notes - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4634091.stm - "A fierce fare price battle in India's start-up budget airlines market is worrying aviation authorities."

Mind you, with Indian Airlines new fleet of Boeing widebodies and Airbus narrowbodies, they offer a solid product in each category and they are state-backed, so they are a bit more insulated then the LCCs, which are backed by private capital.

Even if Boeing and Airbus are back-loading the leases/buys (as Airbus did with B6) to limit the initial outlays in favor of huge ballon payments towards the end of the contracts, they still have to find enough people willing and able to pay the fares necessary - especially LCCs like Kingfisher who ordered five A380s and 100 A350s. That is a lot of seats to fill on international travel (since I can't see either plane being used domestically).
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Old Sep 8, 05, 12:08 pm
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Originally Posted by SEA_Tigger
But do those bodies have the cashflow?

Indian air transport is rising rapidly because it is so much faster then taking the train, but I imagine it is also more expensive. While air traffic is up 25%, it is still only 6-7 million a year - and the trains carry that many a day.
On the Mumbai-Delhi it's roughly 5-20 times more expensive to fly (for a resident!), depending on circumstances. A couple of hours vs. a day.

As for the cashflow, some estimates put the number of persons with PPP wealth greater than $600k at 10-20million and growing at 5% a year. Figures are at best murky though.
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Old Sep 8, 05, 12:32 pm
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If anyone has ever travelled by train in India, they will understand why people are prepared to pay so much more for air travel. Trains in India are ponderously slow and noisy, and the toilets are filthy. The experience is absolutely horrible.

As for the A380 for domestic travel, it is absolutely viable - once the airports are upgraded to take it. 880 passengers in "cattle truck class" is ideal for India for routes between major cities, and they will fill A380s. Japan uses the 747 on high density routes, but there are alternatives like the bullet train there, and the shorter distances make travelling to the airport in Japan less attractive. India has no fast or comfortable alternative, and for the longer distances involved, air travel comes into it's own. People don't care about less frequent flights either, they are used to waiting.
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Old Sep 8, 05, 12:35 pm
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Well it is true that a 747SR/744D evidently was economic enough for the intra-Japan flights (though NH has retired all of theirs in favor of 773s), so I imagine a 800-1000 passenger A380 would be as well.

I imagine such a model will need the upgraded undercarriage and tweaks Boeing did for their 747SR/744D line?

Last edited by SEA_Tigger; Sep 8, 05 at 12:42 pm
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