wco81

How confident are we in those numbers, considering that Thailand didn't close off tourists from China when it was right in the middle of its exponential growth in infections?

CaliforniaSteve

In terms of accuracy of the numbers, I'd say the trust in them is none at all. I've said since the start of this that the numbers in Thailand have been woefully under-reported, and basically, for the reason you mentioned wco81.....the fact that Thailand didn't close off tourists from China at the height of the problem there. As I said in an earlier post, there were reports of widespread hospitalizations for a viral pneumonia earlier in the year. I seem to recall reading something like 3,000 to 4,000 hospitalizations in either January or February (sorry, the days and months have kind of blended together with this thing, so I can't recall the exact date I read it). So I would think many of those cases would have been CoVid-19 cases that were either simply not diagnosed as such because of a lack of testing kits or misdiagnosed so as not to affect tourism.

The one thing that has not seemed to happen in Thailand is the kind of widespread run on hospitals/ICU usage and the exponentially mounting deaths that have been seen in China, much of Europe and in New York State. That gives me hope that the virus is, in fact, mitigated to some degree by the warmer weather in Thailand. The same metric seems to be happening in Singapore, where the case numbers are starting to increase at a higher rate and an increasing percentage of the cases reported each day aren't being directly tied to existing cases, meaning that community spread has become.....well.....more widespread. But, like Thailand, they aren't seeing a huge increase in the number of deaths (though that is creeping up in both countries) or in the number of people that are classified as seriously/critically ill (again, however, that number is creeping up in both countries).

yosithezet, that was a wonderful thing your wife did for the health workers in her village. I think if the fecal material is really going to hit the air circulation system, it's going to be in the rural areas of Thailand where people from Bangkok have escaped and have little to no capacity to handle an outbreak.

Let's hope for the best for Thailand and, indeed, for all of us.

goodeats21

Hi all.
I am hearing from some locals that looks like Thailand will start opening up on May 1. Businesses open, no curfew, etc.

Anyone hearing updates on International flight arrival process and any possible loosening of quarantine requirements?

manymany

Probably all based on this article from The Nation today:

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30386002


These only appear to be opinions and not official plans, also they have extended the ban on international arrivals from 18th April to 30th April https://www.nationthailand.com/news/...ernal_referral

goodeats21

Thanks for this info / link. This is the part I was mostly interested in:

"In the future, foreign tourists wanting to visit Thailand will have to apply a month ahead and must agree to a 14-day quarantine upon entering the country. He said this move may help the private sector arrange quarantine sites for visitors."

Doesn't look good for getting back in May, if application needs to be made a month ahead, and there is a designated quarantine location instead of self-chosen location.

Diplomatico

Doesn't look good for traveling there at any time until those restrictions are lifted. Tourists are not going to travel on holiday to a place where they are quarantined for the first two weeks of their stay.

Fourteen days is longer than an entire holiday period for many.

restlessinRNO

Yes, and especially if the "designated quarantine location" is a government military base, hardly better than a prison cell.

ft101

Fortunately it's only an opinion of someone not directly involved in the decision making process.

transpac

I think the CAAT ban on incoming flights was extended from 18 April to 30 April. Most expect it to get pushed to 15 May and 31 May.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand...nds-flight-ban

There are some in-bound flights with Thai citizens, and empty incoming fifth freedom flights, for travel out of Thailand.

The start of the school year has been pushed to 1 July.

Alcohol sales ban - mostly for the postponed Songkran holidays - in effect in most provinces, until the 20th in Bangkok.

I guess I wouldn't be making any travel plans for this year. Our peak flu season is June - October, and if things were to "loosen up" I'd expect a savage live-cat bounce.

Thailand is a bit like a cruise ship. Maybe best to steer clear for a year? Wouldn't want to get stuck here. There are tens of thousands of "tourists" stuck here, who probably wish they had found a flight out.

goodeats21

Agreed. Though I am not a typical tourist, as I have a place in Thailand and could conceivably stay for at least a month while isolation is in effect in USA. But a 30 day advanced application plus the 14 day "prison cell" quarantine setup doesn't make it practical.

It will be interesting to see if flight ban gets extended. Seems like some substantial internal pressures are building to get things opened up / economy re-engaged. (Not saying this is the right course, just see signs it may happen).

Agree that typical tourist activity is likely to remain depressed this year. In addition to health concerns, economic downturn around the globe will also limit Thai tourism.

transpac

What "internal pressures" and "signs" are you "seeing"?

You say you're "not a typical" tourist? What does that mean? What sort of visa do you plan to use?

There are tens of thousands of Thais who need to be repatriated first. ~ 8,000-ish queued up at the southern border with Malaysia alone. Who knows how many in South Korea? Seen estimates of ~ 100,000.

Can't see "tourists" being allowed in anytime soon, months and months. And even then, suspect you'll have to get some sort of real visa first, which will require both test results and insurance.

And then hope there isn't a flare-up and you get stuck here, which might lead to a violation of your visa, and then a long ban from re-entry. Right now there is a sort of amnesty for some, but I suspect most will end up with "issues" (but not the dreaded IDC perhaps?)



First of 620 returnees touch down in Thailand

Thailand has preparations in place for 620 Thais being repatriated from overseas this week amid the global virus outbreak, Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman of the government's Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, said on Thursday (April 16).

The first batch of Thai returnees landed at Suvarnabhumi Airport at 11am on Thursday aboard Etihad flight EY9827 from the United Arab Emirates. Two and a half hours later, a second batch of 55 returnees stepped off flight Q2-9350 from the Maldives.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30386148

RustyC

I don't think they'll get many takers with the 14 days at Sattahip or wherever. They'll lose a good bit of revenue.

What they really need is an instant test. Surely with all the development efforts globally someone will come up with something, one would think. I don't know what it'd cost but if they make the visitor pay it'll be like a visa fee that would be much less a deterrent.

The antibody tests are supposedly much cheaper and easier to deploy. If someone had antibodies they can be presumed to have had it and recovered.

It'd be a hassle and a pain to set up something like that, but given all the money/jobs at stake it'd still be pennies on the dollar against economic losses otherwise.

goodeats21

I meant I am not a typical holiday tourist, as I visit Thailand 5-6 times a year. I have a Thai partner and we have a house in Isan. I always enter on a 30 day stamp though, as I can't typically stay for longer stretches due to work.

No concrete signs yet, but rumblings about lack of jobs and income. Lots of lines for free food handouts. The limited 5000 baht payment isn't going to last long. With the low number of reported cases (not saying the numbers are absolutely accurate), just a sense that things will want to open up sooner. If there was a large number of cases, would think they would be showing up more on social media.

If Thailand relaxes curfews and alcohol bans, and restaurants and other businesses open back up, they will want to bring in tourist income back to the economy. I am hearing some areas are still looking at a May 1 open date. They were really slow to close it up at the beginning, so there is a certain logic to seeing them open things up quicker.

I am not advocating for it by any means. It would be great for me personally to be able to hunker down at our house, but I would have to weigh many things. Not the least of which would be the possibility of getting sick and having to rely on medical care in the local hospital. I have been there visiting a couple times...Not exactly stocked with latest medical devices.

I appreciate your thoughts on the overall situation. Going to be interesting how this all plays out around the world.

Agree with Transpac that this current scheme is really aimed for repatriating Thais and others that must come into Thailand now, not International tourism.

Sure, an "instant" test would be great, as would an antibody test. But hearing there are over 150 cases in Korea where someone had it, tested negative, then tested positive again. They are trying to figure out if they had false negative tests, had the virus laying dormant and re-flare, or somehow got reinfected. Kind of depressing how few, important details we know about this after so many months now.

Davvidd

The information I got from Thai Aviation industry is as transpac said it would be extended to end of May.

Kalboz

Related post by Gary:

https://viewfromthewing.com/thailand...em-in-germany/