One Program, Endless Inspiration – Preview August Redemption Rates
Apr 23, 2018, 12:54 pm
#16
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Somewhere
Posts: 1,178
Top end properties seem to be the deal to be had in August. We just have to see if these properties will release standard rooms to the public, otherwise these aren't really a bargain if you have to pay extra with cash.
Apr 23, 2018, 12:59 pm
#17
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: YYZ
Programs: Marriott Bonvoy Lifetime Titanium, AC Elite, Airmiles Gold, Hertz Gold Plus Rewards
Posts: 785
Massive jump for -- going from current Cat 3 to Cat 5. This is a rather old hotel ...The Westin Resort & Spa, Cancun from 21,000 to 35,000 (+14,000)
Apr 23, 2018, 1:09 pm
#18
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Miami, FL
Programs: UA 1MM, AA Plat, Marriott LT Titanium, Hyatt Glob, IHG ♢ Amb, Hilton ♢, Hertz Pres
Posts: 6,015
I'll be curious to see what is happening with more Cat 5 hotels in particular. The NY and Paris charts suggest that a lot of current Cat 5s are going up to the 50K points level, which is quite a painful jump and devaluation. But those are also unusually expensive cities, and maybe some of those hotels were marginal being placed in SPG Cat 5 already. There are a lot of "nicest SPG hotel in town" places in cheaper cities like, say, the Nines in Portland. If those places also tend to jump up to 50K points, then the value for upper-mid-range properties is going to be pretty bad in general. What's happening in Mexico City looks more promising by contrast--the overpriced SPG Cat 6 St Regis is coming down to 50K while the appropriately priced Cat 5 W is remaining about the same, at 35K.
It's nice to see the Westins in NY coming down to 50K, which feels totally appropriate to me, but I had hoped perhaps more SPG Cat 6s would fall in price than seems to actually be the case. It will be interesting to see what happens with London, for example. To judge by NY I'd guess the Great Northern will fall to 50K and everything else will stay 60K or higher. Like NY that's not terribly attractive.
There will be some bargains at certain spots on the chart, but it feels like overall these new Marriott points are worth maybe like 0.6-0.7 cents each in general use, which is definitely less than Marriott points were often worth before. And even still some of the 60K points hotels are somewhat often available for less than $360-$420 per night.
This will even out somewhat for points earned on hotel stays thanks to the higher earning rate, but it's going to be nearly impossible to justify using an SPG/Marriott credit card for non-bonus spend.
It's nice to see the Westins in NY coming down to 50K, which feels totally appropriate to me, but I had hoped perhaps more SPG Cat 6s would fall in price than seems to actually be the case. It will be interesting to see what happens with London, for example. To judge by NY I'd guess the Great Northern will fall to 50K and everything else will stay 60K or higher. Like NY that's not terribly attractive.
There will be some bargains at certain spots on the chart, but it feels like overall these new Marriott points are worth maybe like 0.6-0.7 cents each in general use, which is definitely less than Marriott points were often worth before. And even still some of the 60K points hotels are somewhat often available for less than $360-$420 per night.
This will even out somewhat for points earned on hotel stays thanks to the higher earning rate, but it's going to be nearly impossible to justify using an SPG/Marriott credit card for non-bonus spend.
Apr 23, 2018, 1:21 pm
#19
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Lots of key omissions from the new chart, like London.
Yes, there are some values here but there are also a lot of average properties bumped to category 6-7, like 50,000 points for most of the average New York properties.
And, as expected, many of the Paris properties are category 7. I'm guessing that will be London, too. Yes, the excellent Renaissance Paris Republique is category 5 and, thus, 5,000 points less per night under the new chart, but if everyone redeems there it will undoubtably be a category 6 or 7 hotel by 2020.
So, yes, by 2020, I expect all of the nice hotels in the big cities and big destinations to be category 7 or 8.
Who cares if the new Marriott program is more "rich" when the points are worth less? Oh yeah, then there are the resort fees and destination fees that have spread well beyond beach properties.
Yes, there are some values here but there are also a lot of average properties bumped to category 6-7, like 50,000 points for most of the average New York properties.
And, as expected, many of the Paris properties are category 7. I'm guessing that will be London, too. Yes, the excellent Renaissance Paris Republique is category 5 and, thus, 5,000 points less per night under the new chart, but if everyone redeems there it will undoubtably be a category 6 or 7 hotel by 2020.
So, yes, by 2020, I expect all of the nice hotels in the big cities and big destinations to be category 7 or 8.
Who cares if the new Marriott program is more "rich" when the points are worth less? Oh yeah, then there are the resort fees and destination fees that have spread well beyond beach properties.
Apr 23, 2018, 1:24 pm
#20
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: CT/ Germany - Ich spreche deutsch
Programs: UA 1K, Bonvoy LTTE, HH Dia, HY Expl
Posts: 4,655
I think the smoke and mirrors decreases we are seeing on the top end for the remainder of the year is getting people excited but the overall implementation looks like it will be a devaluation and this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Looks like no one will ever redeem points at the Sheraton TS NYC again. With the new resort fee type fee and the14k increase they will likely see a huge drop off in redemptions. I'm struggling to see why they think the Sheraton TS NYC should be the same price as the Westin TS. I think they were the same price for a while with SPG but that changed...likely due to the rates and the drop off in redemptions.
Paris is being hit as IMHO only the hotels no one will want will see a decrease.
Marriott starting to show their true colors and this is only the beginning! If this is indicative of what is to come for all hotels I will take my business elsewhere and stay with MR/SPG only when it is the best option and I can use my LTP benefits.
Looks like no one will ever redeem points at the Sheraton TS NYC again. With the new resort fee type fee and the14k increase they will likely see a huge drop off in redemptions. I'm struggling to see why they think the Sheraton TS NYC should be the same price as the Westin TS. I think they were the same price for a while with SPG but that changed...likely due to the rates and the drop off in redemptions.
Paris is being hit as IMHO only the hotels no one will want will see a decrease.
Marriott starting to show their true colors and this is only the beginning! If this is indicative of what is to come for all hotels I will take my business elsewhere and stay with MR/SPG only when it is the best option and I can use my LTP benefits.
Apr 23, 2018, 1:31 pm
#21
Moderator: British Airways Executive Club, Marriott Bonvoy
Join Date: May 2006
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Apr 23, 2018, 1:38 pm
#22
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: BNE
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Apr 23, 2018, 1:45 pm
#23
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: England - UK
Posts: 512
I'm a typical low Cat user but stay 4-5 times a week. I pay for my nights plus for meals. When the tourists have gone people like me are what keep off the beaten track hotels ticking over till the season picks up. If the price or Category of the hotels we stay at rise yet again this year then we will stop booking with Marriott in the low season.
Apr 23, 2018, 1:51 pm
#24
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: GVA
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Apr 23, 2018, 1:51 pm
#25
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Brooklyn
Programs: Delta Diamond, Bonvoy something good; sometimes other things too
Posts: 5,050
Curious if anyone with history from the current Marriott program can shed more light on how categories have typically been set there? I don't know if it was ever stated officially, but my impression was always that SPG set categories strictly on average daily room rate.
If Marriott puts more of a finger on the scale, charging more for disproportionately popular redemption destinations or other similar adjustments, that would be good to know and could help set parameters for how to use these new points. For example, like how redeeming frequent flyer miles to go to Hawaii is often a disproportionately bad deal because so many people want to use miles to get there, if Marriott does a similar thing with hotels in Paris, then perhaps you just stay elsewhere or pay cash in Paris, but continue to use points in Berlin and Amsterdam, or wherever.
It's hard to say from this limited set but it also seems like there might be some "value-based adjustments" going on. For example, it's hard to explain the huge jump in the Westin Grand Cayman rates (especially since SPG could have just made that hotel a Cat 6 if 60K points was the right price for it) unless Marriott is making a judgement about certain brands or types/quality levels of hotels being forced into certain category levels.
By contrast the jump at the Paris Marriott Champs Elysees is pretty easy to explain and seems not unreasonable: that hotel is a good deal in the current program because the current Marriott award chart doesn't have a high enough category for it. The NY Marriott Marquis was left off the list but it seems likely to make a similar jump, and other top Marriott Cat 9 properties will likely do the same.
If Marriott puts more of a finger on the scale, charging more for disproportionately popular redemption destinations or other similar adjustments, that would be good to know and could help set parameters for how to use these new points. For example, like how redeeming frequent flyer miles to go to Hawaii is often a disproportionately bad deal because so many people want to use miles to get there, if Marriott does a similar thing with hotels in Paris, then perhaps you just stay elsewhere or pay cash in Paris, but continue to use points in Berlin and Amsterdam, or wherever.
It's hard to say from this limited set but it also seems like there might be some "value-based adjustments" going on. For example, it's hard to explain the huge jump in the Westin Grand Cayman rates (especially since SPG could have just made that hotel a Cat 6 if 60K points was the right price for it) unless Marriott is making a judgement about certain brands or types/quality levels of hotels being forced into certain category levels.
By contrast the jump at the Paris Marriott Champs Elysees is pretty easy to explain and seems not unreasonable: that hotel is a good deal in the current program because the current Marriott award chart doesn't have a high enough category for it. The NY Marriott Marquis was left off the list but it seems likely to make a similar jump, and other top Marriott Cat 9 properties will likely do the same.
Apr 23, 2018, 2:03 pm
#26
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Apr 23, 2018, 2:06 pm
#27
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Yeah, as if the J.W. Marriott Hotel in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic is really illustrative. I'd guess that 90% of folks redeeming points in the Dominican Republic go to a beach property, not a city center hotel in the capital. So yes, it's dropping a category but it's not truly illustrative. A better example would have better properties in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including the Marriott on St. Thomas, which is supposedly the number one property for points redemption by Marriott's American customers.
Apr 23, 2018, 2:09 pm
#28
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: DCA, EGE, IAD
Programs: MR LTT, BA Gold, AA LTP, UA Silver
Posts: 6,077
All but very few hotels release their inventory on this schedule. The main exception being some conference hotels who may hold back inventory for both sale and redemption while they finalize pending contracts; an example being JW Marriott Orlando who a number of years ago wouldn't release inventory until about 10 months out. Then when these conference hotels do release inventory, there may well be blocks of dates that are unavailable because they are booked (sold out) for conferences or other events or contracts are pending. The only people that would be able to get PAID rooms would be PP or PPA in the new program with their 48 hour guarantee. Many years ago I actually encountered this at JW Marriott Orlando so I stayed at the RC right next door as I didn't want to be among the conference geeks.
If you want and example of available inventory from conference bookings look at the JW Marriott Phoenix for March 2019 using the flexible date search for 1 night. Someone was complaining about being unable to book a 6 award night stay at this hotel, and it was because of the blocks of conference bookings, or potential bookings, taking all inventory on various dates throughout the month.
Apr 23, 2018, 2:09 pm
#29
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: stl
Programs: AA LT Plat/8.1mm now with 1350 miles left in my account and proud of it.. SPG LT Titanium.
Posts: 3,079
This looks fairly reasonable the real question to me is how broadly "peak times" is applied starting next year.
Apr 23, 2018, 2:12 pm
#30
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Curious if anyone with history from the current Marriott program can shed more light on how categories have typically been set there? I don't know if it was ever stated officially, but my impression was always that SPG set categories strictly on average daily room rate.
If Marriott puts more of a finger on the scale, charging more for disproportionately popular redemption destinations or other similar adjustments, that would be good to know and could help set parameters for how to use these new points. For example, like how redeeming frequent flyer miles to go to Hawaii is often a disproportionately bad deal because so many people want to use miles to get there, if Marriott does a similar thing with hotels in Paris, then perhaps you just stay elsewhere or pay cash in Paris, but continue to use points in Berlin and Amsterdam, or wherever.
It's hard to say from this limited set but it also seems like there might be some "value-based adjustments" going on. For example, it's hard to explain the huge jump in the Westin Grand Cayman rates (especially since SPG could have just made that hotel a Cat 6 if 60K points was the right price for it) unless Marriott is making a judgement about certain brands or types/quality levels of hotels being forced into certain category levels.
If Marriott puts more of a finger on the scale, charging more for disproportionately popular redemption destinations or other similar adjustments, that would be good to know and could help set parameters for how to use these new points. For example, like how redeeming frequent flyer miles to go to Hawaii is often a disproportionately bad deal because so many people want to use miles to get there, if Marriott does a similar thing with hotels in Paris, then perhaps you just stay elsewhere or pay cash in Paris, but continue to use points in Berlin and Amsterdam, or wherever.
It's hard to say from this limited set but it also seems like there might be some "value-based adjustments" going on. For example, it's hard to explain the huge jump in the Westin Grand Cayman rates (especially since SPG could have just made that hotel a Cat 6 if 60K points was the right price for it) unless Marriott is making a judgement about certain brands or types/quality levels of hotels being forced into certain category levels.
So, even the Paris Renaissance Republique, which remains an excellent value under the new chart, is unlikely to remain priced lower than other Paris hotels if everyone who was going to redeem points at the Paris Marriott Champs Elysees now redeems points at the Paris Renaissance Republique.
By contrast the jump at the Paris Marriott Champs Elysees is pretty easy to explain and seems not unreasonable: that hotel is a good deal in the current program because the current Marriott award chart doesn't have a high enough category for it. The NY Marriott Marquis was left off the list but it seems likely to make a similar jump, and other top Marriott Cat 9 properties will likely do the same.