Load Factor: 6%

Old Apr 29, 2020, 4:09 pm
  #16  
 
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Agreed on all points, mile ho
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Old Apr 29, 2020, 4:10 pm
  #17  
 
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Originally Posted by expert7700
​​​​​​As of today Vegas, at least Wynn group and some others are targeting memorial day for partial reopening 100% not 5/1.
​​​​
Yeah, turns out 90% of the folks deplaned in SAN after all.
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Old Apr 29, 2020, 4:24 pm
  #18  
 
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Atlanta airport GM says "a good place" would be traffic - one year from today - half what it was in 2019.
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Old Apr 29, 2020, 5:19 pm
  #19  
 
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Originally Posted by kennycrudup
While I'm as optimistic as you are, this was an anomaly and my previous four segments these last few days have been far lighter (ca. 6-15).

That being said, (I do have my fingers crossed! Has Vegas decided to reopen on 5/1? I wonder how many people are getting off at LAS to help start reopening? (I'm out at SAN).)
<bolding mine>

The Las Vegas Review-Journal
April 29th, 2020 2:57pm Herb Time

Sisolak says he’ll extend stay-at-home order; casinos won’t reopen until ‘3rd or 4th phase’

"Nevada’s stay-at-home order, which was set to expire Friday, will be extended, Gov. Steve Sisolak said in an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America” on Wednesday."

Sisolak says he’ll extend stay-at-home order; casinos won’t reopen until ‘3rd or 4th phase’
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Old Apr 29, 2020, 5:41 pm
  #20  
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Originally Posted by kennycrudup
... Has Vegas decided to reopen on 5/1? I wonder how many people are getting off at LAS to help start reopening? (I'm out at SAN).)
No way in hell will Vegas be open 5/1.

Nevada will announce new plans on Thursday, but it will be June at least.

MGM hotels have cancelled all shows through the end of June. Similar at other hotels.

June would be an optimistic month for Vegas.

See more at vegasmessageboard.com
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Old Apr 29, 2020, 7:52 pm
  #21  
 
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Originally Posted by mile ho
I'm going to make a prediction. It won't be 10% in May. Their projections are wrong. It will be much higher. I'm flying three r/t in May for pleasure myself with my wife.
There are others who are going to start traveling, too.

Things are changing even as we speak.
I hope the places that you are planning to go will not be having "stay at home" orders for May.

Here in Nevada, our state's current "stay at home order" ends Friday but the governor said today he will be extending it. He did not say what the extension will be yet so speculation runs like wildfire (mid May, end of May, etc.). Also here in Nevada implemented by the governor we have a 14 day self quarantine at home policy for anyone returning from out of state. I am on the NV/CA border so if I drive 30 minutes into CA for an hour to visit a grocery store then return to NV technically I am subject to a 14 day self quarantine.

I think 10% load factor will be about right for May. A few more people will travel, but not that many. I mean that would be almost double the April levels so that is quite an increase from April...

The problem here is when you travel you are going from Point A to Point B. If Point A is "open" but then Point B has a stay at home order, or a 14 day self quarantine rule for anyone entering from outside, it discourages load factor and it confuses people exactly what the rules are.

Up in Lake Tahoe, California side specifically they are threatening "non-residents" who come in with $1,000 fines because they do not want tourists going there. Real tough to enforce since Lake Tahoe is part NV and part CA and Tahoe residents live on both sides and go across the state lines to shop or do other business routinely. I think it is more of a scare tactic than anything else to keep tourists away. But it sure impacts load factor as typically Tahoe attracts tens of thousands of tourists, many via air travel, from all over the world every month.

People who would travel hear all these things then become scared to travel. And that impacts load factor significantly on the airlines.

The other issue is in many cases people need some sort of mutual agreement to travel. In my opinion it is very safe to travel on an airplane right now. There is hardly anyone flying. What is going to go wrong? Unfortunately my employer thinks otherwise and has canceled all travel. My family thinks otherwise and thinks I would be absolutely crazy to risk going on an airplane right now (...risk what the planes are empty...). So I cave in to pressure and do not pursue any airplane travel right now. Again this sort of thing impacts load factor. There is a ton of social pressure to not travel right now.

Oh yeah and all those risks about the COVID virus too. I almost forgot those. Hopefully you won't get unlucky and end up in an airport or hotel where an outbreak takes place like all those nursing homes, meat packing plants, churches, etc. where many have an outbreak. Local hospital laying people off due to lack of activity after spending who knows what to convert a floor in its parking garage into hospital beds. Ventilators never had more than 50% use the past month. Yeah, that thing. Tough to know what to believe at this point.
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Last edited by storewanderer; Apr 29, 2020 at 8:03 pm
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Old Apr 29, 2020, 8:47 pm
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Anecdotal: I was at FLL last Sat. The southwest ticket counter had a few people and I waited on two arriving flights that both were relatively empty. The Alaska flight my friend was in was buzzing and had about 30 people checking in.

i hung out on a deserted upper deck of the parking garage. There were a few planes around but mostly quiet. I had been to FLL just after the pandemic started and the day before the Canadian border closed. Other then the rush of people trying to get back to Canada, the airport was more deserted then than now, but not significantly. The industry has right sized well. Traffic is going up. Flights are going out with 10-20 people instead of 1-2 but there are also fewer flights. we’re not looking at any significant uptick but yes, there is light and hope for the future
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Old Apr 30, 2020, 8:23 am
  #23  
 
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In an effort to get the conversation on track, I want to share a statement my friend who works for DL posted on Facebook this week. (With a picture of ATL concourse A)
This might not look like much, but to everyone in the airline industry it's a symbol of hope. We are set to see our first increase in weekly passengers since the end of February. It's not a significant increase by any means, but an increase nonetheless
Asian domestic flights are restarting. Normal-ish is returning to China and their economy is starting to recover. Patience is needed but recovery is beginning and I have no fears about the health of WN going forward
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Old Apr 30, 2020, 8:28 am
  #24  
 
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Originally Posted by kennycrudup
Nope. If they do that, I'll fly someone else.
Does that make two good reasons for SWA requiring all passengers to wear a mask? Regardless of your personal opinion on masks, covid19, or politics, the only thing that is going to appreciably increase load factor is making the general public (not you) feel that flying is safe. Most of us don't consider ourselves to be the macho-invincible-Marlboro Man with regard to this virus, and even if we do, we still have friends or relatives who are at a higher risk category. Wearing masks, social distancing, and similar measures are simple, non-invasive prevention type measures that all reasonable people should take, and that includes when they are getting on a SWA plane. If SWA implemented a strict policy, masks for all passengers, booking only aisle and window seats, and publicized that fact, they would be pleased with the increased load factor. That policy would attract far more people than they would lose from someone declaring that they would fly another airline if forced to wear a mask.
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Old Apr 30, 2020, 10:33 am
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Originally Posted by screeton
Does that make two good reasons for SWA requiring all passengers to wear a mask? Regardless of your personal opinion on masks, covid19, or politics, the only thing that is going to appreciably increase load factor is making the general public (not you) feel that flying is safe. Most of us don't consider ourselves to be the macho-invincible-Marlboro Man with regard to this virus, and even if we do, we still have friends or relatives who are at a higher risk category. Wearing masks, social distancing, and similar measures are simple, non-invasive prevention type measures that all reasonable people should take, and that includes when they are getting on a SWA plane. If SWA implemented a strict policy, masks for all passengers, booking only aisle and window seats, and publicized that fact, they would be pleased with the increased load factor. That policy would attract far more people than they would lose from someone declaring that they would fly another airline if forced to wear a mask.
How can blocking all middle seats make WN pleased with load factor? Why didn't they feel that way pre-Rona? All of those full snowbird flights this week that made the news would have not been full anymore.

Also, re the mask thing, they are pointless for someone who is not coughing and sneezing. Pre-Rona, Asians wore masks only when they were sick to prevent spread with some sort of minorly calculatable success. Wearing a mask when you are not sick (like the CDC used to say) is pointless and increases your chance of catching the illness since you are touching your face all the time! Multiple studies prove that masks in real life settings provide zero protection if not make the user more susceptible to disease. Even 90% of heathcare workers take off masks improperly and contaminate their faces. This does not take into account the additional safety problems associated with fogged up glasses, operating equipment, false sense of security, etc...it is just dumb. And for the government to enact enforceable laws making one wear one against their will...well, that is even more dumb.

Flying WN with fogged up glasses for three hours and my lap child touching and playing with the stupid mask on my face and so you can "feel" safe from my asymptomatic breath with your mask that provides just as much protection as taping a coffee filter to your face is idiotic...at best. All during this imaginary flight, statistically I will be more unsafe so that you can "feel" safe. How the heck is that fair? Just lock yourself in your house for a few years and wait for this to end.

Last edited by pgh234; Apr 30, 2020 at 10:41 am
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Old Apr 30, 2020, 12:36 pm
  #26  
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Moderator note: Thirty (!) posts have been moved to the Peanut Gallery. That said, if you really want to debate distancing or politics or virus strategies, there is a new Coronavirus forum...
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Old Apr 30, 2020, 4:04 pm
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Thank you
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Old Apr 30, 2020, 4:19 pm
  #28  
 
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Originally Posted by screeton
Does that make two good reasons for SWA requiring all passengers to wear a mask?
Seems inevitable.

DL is mandating passenger masks from May 4. Delta will also require them in its Sky Club lounges..

TSA reporting its highest number of screened passengers in the US since April 3.

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Old Apr 30, 2020, 7:04 pm
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Looks like load factors aren't low on all flights.

Man claims no social distancing enforced on packed Southwest flight
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Old Apr 30, 2020, 7:27 pm
  #30  
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Yea... except prior to this event, they were doing OVER 2 Million per day.

Originally Posted by LegalTender
....TSA reporting its highest number of screened passengers in the US since April 3.

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