Southwest raised prices by $5 (roughly 364 points)

Old Oct 9, 19, 10:32 am
  #1  
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Southwest raised prices by $5 (roughly 364 points)

FYI.. I noticed this morning southwest raised the price by around 363-364 points for a lot of flights. Not sure if this is a point devaluation or what at this point.

update... Its a $5 increase.. Link to article:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/fare-h...VCig_ZjruW9-nE
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Last edited by jep8821; Oct 9, 19 at 5:51 pm Reason: Updated to reflect both $ and point
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Old Oct 9, 19, 11:38 am
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Did the price of the cash ticket change as well or did it stay the same?
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Old Oct 9, 19, 12:04 pm
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I see no changes on my route for points cost with no changes in the cash price as well.
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Old Oct 9, 19, 12:47 pm
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Not sure on cash because I only look at points.
some of the routes I noticed it on was BNA - MCO, MCI - MCO, MCI - SNA, BNA - SNA, MCI-BUR, BNA-BUR.
Its not all flights either on the routes. Seems to be the cheaper ones that went up.

Last edited by jep8821; Oct 9, 19 at 12:53 pm
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Old Oct 9, 19, 1:00 pm
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If base rates also changed, then no point devaluation.

Only way to know is to compare cash to points.

Want to drive yourself nuts - check out this primer.

https://millionmilesecrets.com/guide...-points-value/
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Old Oct 9, 19, 1:38 pm
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Compare cash and points prices for the same flight. For the calculation, take the points number and divide by the base fare (airfare only, minus any taxes and fees). Currently, flights are 78 points per dollar.

A quick spot check shows no change to the points redemption value.
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Old Oct 9, 19, 1:41 pm
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WGA fares fluctuate all the time. I might be looking at a $124 flight and a few days later it might jump to $179, then after just one day go back to $124.

Or vice versa. The price might drop for just one day then go back up. I tend to fly to the same small number of destinations so I check every day.
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Old Oct 9, 19, 2:05 pm
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Look like there was a $5 fare increase on a couple routes I book frequently. MDW - DTW went from $95 to $100 one way on Friday-Sunday, and MDW - BDL went from $215 to $220 one way on Fridays and Sundays. Im assuming this is across the board. United seems to have the same increase on their ORD routes but American is yet to match at this point. We'll see if it sticks.
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Old Oct 9, 19, 3:17 pm
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Originally Posted by ursine1 View Post
Compare cash and points prices for the same flight. For the calculation, take the points number and divide by the base fare (airfare only, minus any taxes and fees). Currently, flights are 78 points per dollar......
Two things

1 - Some folks like to say you need 71 (or 78) points per dollar, and some like to say each point is worth 1.4 cents each. Either way works.
2 - I understand taking out the $5.60 part since you still have to pay that even with point purchase. But, taxes are included in both (at least domestically), so why not use that in the calculation.

I just did a snapshot of BNA-BWI for two weeks from now and did the calculations. If I include the taxes I do NOT have to pay, it changes to 71.
The first two numbers are directly from the booking page, then I did calculations in Excel for the other numbers using the number with $5.60 removed.


CASH ...... Points .....Less $5.60...point cost .. point value


$401.00…….28,057…….$395.40…….71…….$0.014
$379.00…….26,461…….$373.40…….71…….$0.014
$140.00…….9,119…..….$134.40…….68…….$0.015

$401.00…….28,057…….$395.40…….71…….$0.014
$379.00…….26,461…….$373.40…….71…….$0.014
$256.00 …….17,536 …….$250.40 ….70 …….$0.014

$401.00 …….28,057 …….$395.40 ……71 …….$0.014
$379.00 …….26,461 …….$373.40 …….71 …….$0.014
$149.00 …….9,772 …….$143.40 …….68 …….$0.015

Last edited by NoStressHere; Oct 9, 19 at 4:04 pm
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Old Oct 9, 19, 4:27 pm
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Originally Posted by NoStressHere View Post
Two things

1 - Some folks like to say you need 71 (or 78) points per dollar, and some like to say each point is worth 1.4 cents each. Either way works.
2 - I understand taking out the $5.60 part since you still have to pay that even with point purchase. But, taxes are included in both (at least domestically), so why not use that in the calculation.

I just did a snapshot of BNA-BWI for two weeks from now and did the calculations. If I include the taxes I do NOT have to pay, it changes to 71.
The first two numbers are directly from the booking page, then I did calculations in Excel for the other numbers using the number with $5.60 removed.


CASH ...... Points .....Less $5.60...point cost .. point value


$401.00…….28,057…….$395.40…….71…….$0.014
$379.00…….26,461…….$373.40…….71…….$0.014
$140.00…….9,119…..….$134.40…….68…….$0.015

$401.00…….28,057…….$395.40…….71…….$0.014
$379.00…….26,461…….$373.40…….71…….$0.014
$256.00 …….17,536 …….$250.40 ….70 …….$0.014

$401.00 …….28,057 …….$395.40 ……71 …….$0.014
$379.00 …….26,461 …….$373.40 …….71 …….$0.014
$149.00 …….9,772 …….$143.40 …….68 …….$0.015
Unfortunately, no. There are any number of threads where we've dissected this to death. Long story short: They way you're looking at it is situationally, not literally. "Either way" does not work, as we're looking for a constant for comparison, not the effective point value.

Southwest uses a formula to calculate what the points cost of a flight is. That formula is base fare x 78. (It's variable, it's changed over time, it will likely change again, it's currently 78.)

This is literally how Southwest calculates what the point cost of a flight is.

We're not trying to understand what the effective value of a point is. So we don't factor in the taxes that you don't pay on points bookings. Effective point value fluctuates greatly since it includes many additional factors -- including the relative percentage of the total fare represented by the taxes and fees. Bloggers love to talk about effective point value because there are many ways of looking at it since there are many factors you can include or discard. It gives them lots of fodder to write about.

We're looking for a constant. A way that we can know when Southwest has made a uniform policy change that devalues (or, very rarely, increases) point redemption.

This is how you calculate that constant: Compare cash and points prices for the same flight. For the calculation, take the points number and divide by the base fare (airfare only, minus any taxes and fees).

Hopefully this makes sense.


Edited to add:

Spot checking your calculation, the numbers should be:

$401.00…….28,057…….$359.70…….78

$401 cash fare
28,057 points fare

$401 = $359.70 base fare x 78 = 28,056.6 points (round up to get 28,057)

Result: No evidence of recent points devaluation, redemption remains at 78 points / $1
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Last edited by ursine1; Oct 9, 19 at 4:39 pm
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Old Oct 9, 19, 5:48 pm
  #11  
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FYI.. here is an story on the price increase

https://thepointsguy.com/news/fare-h...VCig_ZjruW9-nE.
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Old Oct 9, 19, 5:53 pm
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Originally Posted by jep8821 View Post
FYI.. here is an story on the price increase

https://thepointsguy.com/news/fare-h...VCig_ZjruW9-nE.

To be clear, this is an across-the-board fare increase, and not a points devaluation as the thread title would suggest.
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Old Oct 9, 19, 6:31 pm
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And that assumes there actually is a set price for a route, which there is not.
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Old Oct 9, 19, 6:47 pm
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It's $5. The amount of analysis here for five bucks boggles the mind.
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Old Oct 9, 19, 8:09 pm
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Originally Posted by ursine1 View Post
.....
Spot checking your calculation, the numbers should be:

$401.00.28,057.$359.70.78

$401 cash fare
28,057 points fare

$401 = $359.70 base fare x 78 = 28,056.6 points (round up to get 28,057)
1
What happens to the tax portion?

On a cash fare, I pay it. But you are comparing the fare without tax on the example. Maybe I am just slow?


$401.00.28,057.$395.40.71.$0.014
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