WN Cancellations Under Control?
May 22, 2019, 10:55 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: SFO
Programs: AC SE, AA EXP MM, UA Gold MM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Titanium, HH Dia, IHG Plat
Posts: 4,775
WN Cancellations Under Control?
Are WN cancellations and delays back to a level approximating industry norms? Can I expect a somewhat reliable operation on Memorial Day within CA (barring weather issues of course)?
May 22, 2019, 11:07 am
#3
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 349
You can track live cancellations and delays every day here: https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/
At this point it is pretty much a given that every single day WN will have the highest amount of cancellations domestically, often by a large margin. I would say that this is the current "industry norm." I have seen days where Southwest has hundreds of cancellations but Delta has zero, or at least within single digits. Overall though even with hundreds of cancellations, WN is still often only seeing <5% of overall flights cancelled. I also often see 10-15% of WN flights being delayed, assuming there is not some major meltdown (often something that would affect other airlines as well).
I imagine if you told the average flyer that there is an 85% chance that their flight will not be cancelled or delayed, they'd think that is pretty good. Of course, if you are one of the unlucky ones on a cancelled flight, those figures don't help you at all. In reality, WN seems to continuously have the higher number of cancellations and delays, both in # and %. I personally am willing to put up with this because of a) companion pass; b) somewhat-flexible work arrangements; and c) ability to cancel points bookings without penalty.
So overall, you will probably be fine with your Memorial Day plans, but booking with another airline would probably give you a slightly better chance of completing your trip without disruption. Whether the risk is worth it should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, IMO.
May 22, 2019, 11:10 am
#4
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Allen, TX (DAL)
Programs: Southwest Hilton Diamond
Posts: 97
Not so sure about that, I think AA just said "Hold My Beer".......https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...contract-talks
Last edited by ftnoob; May 22, 2019 at 10:44 pm Reason: Thread flow
May 22, 2019, 11:17 am
#5
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 349
Not so sure about that, I think AA just said "Hold My Beer".......https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...contract-talks
I also forgot to mention that another factor in my calculation to stick with WN is pretty good trip protections via the Citi Prestige. That has saved my butt and covered things like hotel, meals, and transportation a few times, making the high annual fee ($450) well worth it.
Last edited by Nirvana91; May 22, 2019 at 11:28 am Reason: added the "incognito mode" item
May 22, 2019, 11:59 am
#6
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Blue Ridge, GA
Posts: 5,501
The lawsuit alleges union actions were "causing about eight additional flight cancellations a day in the weeks before the last negotiating session on April 25. Since then, cancellations have risen to 14 a day."
"The odds of this being random as opposed to concerted activity is less than 1 in 1 billion," the lawsuit said.
"The odds of this being random as opposed to concerted activity is less than 1 in 1 billion," the lawsuit said.
May 22, 2019, 12:19 pm
#7
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,329
You can track live cancellations and delays every day here: https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/
Pretty rough...
May 22, 2019, 12:31 pm
#8
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DL just celebrated a hundred days without a single cancellation.
May 22, 2019, 1:06 pm
#10
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Nashville -Past DL Plat, FO, WN-CP, various hotel programs
Programs: DL-MM, AA, SW w/companion,HiltonDiamond, Hyatt PLat, IHF Plat, Miles and Points Seeker
Posts: 11,072
I would think most, and close to all for the next two weeks are already "cancelled" if due to reduced aircraft availability. (MAX8)
Heading out into the future... not sure how far they have locked it down but various "reports" have indicated they are set into July right now.
Weather or normal breakdowns not included of course.
Heading out into the future... not sure how far they have locked it down but various "reports" have indicated they are set into July right now.
Weather or normal breakdowns not included of course.
May 22, 2019, 6:24 pm
#12
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: ORD, MDW or MKE
Programs: American and Southwest. Hilton and Marriott hotels primarily.
Posts: 6,458
Wn has in the past and will probably continue into the future to preemptively cancel flights because of weather in much higher numbers than any other airline. I don't blame anyone who books away from this airline because of their cancellations in bad weather. The max 8 and mechanic slowdown cancellations are pretty much over. However, it is spring time and bad weather seems to be somewhere in the country every day. WN cancellations will probably continue at abnormally high levels.
May 22, 2019, 8:12 pm
#13
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,329
2204 has cancelled 5 of the past 7 days (including tomorrow now):
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/...200Z/KSJC/KLAX
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/...200Z/KSJC/KLAX
May 23, 2019, 12:30 am
#14
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 137
Weird, it only shows 6 when I load that page. Isn't that normal though? I was under the impression that frequency to southern california is so high that often they'd just bump everyone to the previous/next flight rather than having it go out almost empty.
