WN Cancellations Under Control?

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Old May 22, 19, 10:55 am
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WN Cancellations Under Control?

Are WN cancellations and delays back to a level approximating industry norms? Can I expect a somewhat reliable operation on Memorial Day within CA (barring weather issues of course)?
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Old May 22, 19, 10:58 am
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Old May 22, 19, 11:07 am
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Originally Posted by Explore View Post
Are WN cancellations and delays back to a level approximating industry norms? Can I expect a somewhat reliable operation on Memorial Day within CA (barring weather issues of course)?


It depends on what you mean by "industry norms."

You can track live cancellations and delays every day here: https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/

At this point it is pretty much a given that every single day WN will have the highest amount of cancellations domestically, often by a large margin. I would say that this is the current "industry norm." I have seen days where Southwest has hundreds of cancellations but Delta has zero, or at least within single digits. Overall though even with hundreds of cancellations, WN is still often only seeing <5% of overall flights cancelled. I also often see 10-15% of WN flights being delayed, assuming there is not some major meltdown (often something that would affect other airlines as well).

I imagine if you told the average flyer that there is an 85% chance that their flight will not be cancelled or delayed, they'd think that is pretty good. Of course, if you are one of the unlucky ones on a cancelled flight, those figures don't help you at all. In reality, WN seems to continuously have the higher number of cancellations and delays, both in # and %. I personally am willing to put up with this because of a) companion pass; b) somewhat-flexible work arrangements; and c) ability to cancel points bookings without penalty.

So overall, you will probably be fine with your Memorial Day plans, but booking with another airline would probably give you a slightly better chance of completing your trip without disruption. Whether the risk is worth it should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, IMO.
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Old May 22, 19, 11:10 am
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Not so sure about that, I think AA just said "Hold My Beer".......https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...contract-talks

Last edited by ftnoob; May 22, 19 at 10:44 pm Reason: Thread flow
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Old May 22, 19, 11:17 am
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Originally Posted by TXWayne View Post
Not so sure about that, I think AA just said "Hold My Beer".......https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...contract-talks
That's behind a paywall (at least in my incognito mode) so I can't access it, but based on the URL it seems that even if AA is suggesting an illegal slowdown, they are still seeing less delays and cancellations than WN, as of right now.

I also forgot to mention that another factor in my calculation to stick with WN is pretty good trip protections via the Citi Prestige. That has saved my butt and covered things like hotel, meals, and transportation a few times, making the high annual fee ($450) well worth it.

Last edited by Nirvana91; May 22, 19 at 11:28 am Reason: added the "incognito mode" item
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Old May 22, 19, 11:59 am
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Originally Posted by Nirvana91 View Post
That's behind a paywall (at least in my incognito mode) so I can't access it, but based on the URL it seems that even if AA is suggesting an illegal slowdown, they are still seeing less delays and cancellations than WN, as of right now..
From the article:

The lawsuit alleges union actions were "causing about eight additional flight cancellations a day in the weeks before the last negotiating session on April 25. Since then, cancellations have risen to 14 a day."

"The odds of this being random as opposed to concerted activity is less than 1 in 1 billion," the lawsuit said.
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Old May 22, 19, 12:19 pm
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Originally Posted by Nirvana91 View Post
You can track live cancellations and delays every day here: https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/
Wow, 13 WN cancellations in SJC just today. 12 yesterday. Other carrier SJC cancellations during the same two days: 1 (GoJet)

Pretty rough...
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Old May 22, 19, 12:31 pm
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DL just celebrated a hundred days without a single cancellation.
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Old May 22, 19, 12:37 pm
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Originally Posted by spongenotbob View Post
Wow, 13 WN cancellations in SJC just today.
14 cancelled in SJC now. And the day is young.

Crazy...
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Old May 22, 19, 1:06 pm
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I would think most, and close to all for the next two weeks are already "cancelled" if due to reduced aircraft availability. (MAX8)

Heading out into the future... not sure how far they have locked it down but various "reports" have indicated they are set into July right now.

Weather or normal breakdowns not included of course.
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Old May 22, 19, 4:23 pm
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3:22 pm :
133 Southwest cancels, next highest American carrier (AA) has 24 cancels.
Southwest has 27 cancels in San Jose.alone.

Guess I will need to continue booking away from WN for now.
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Old May 22, 19, 6:24 pm
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Wn has in the past and will probably continue into the future to preemptively cancel flights because of weather in much higher numbers than any other airline. I don't blame anyone who books away from this airline because of their cancellations in bad weather. The max 8 and mechanic slowdown cancellations are pretty much over. However, it is spring time and bad weather seems to be somewhere in the country every day. WN cancellations will probably continue at abnormally high levels.
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Old May 22, 19, 8:12 pm
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2204 has cancelled 5 of the past 7 days (including tomorrow now):

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/...200Z/KSJC/KLAX

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Old May 23, 19, 12:30 am
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Originally Posted by spongenotbob View Post


Wow, 13 WN cancellations in SJC just today. 12 yesterday. Other carrier SJC cancellations during the same two days: 1 (GoJet)

Pretty rough...
Weird, it only shows 6 when I load that page. Isn't that normal though? I was under the impression that frequency to southern california is so high that often they'd just bump everyone to the previous/next flight rather than having it go out almost empty.
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Old May 23, 19, 7:42 am
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Today at 6:42 AM Pacific Time..

Southwest already has 83 cancels and 223 delays. By far the most of any U.S. carrier.
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