Speculation on Hawaii Fares?

Old Feb 7, 2019, 11:41 am
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 13
Speculation on Hawaii Fares?

We've been eagerly waiting for the Southwest Hawaii service to start in anticipation of booking for a summer vacation. We need to book six tickets (plus two free companion tickets), so obviously it makes a big difference in my budget whether tickets are $300 or $600. Also, I've been stocking up on discount Southwest gift cards whenever Raise has a sale, so I'd like to have a better gauge of how much more I need to buy.

I've read several articles speculating that prices could be "as low as" $99 to $139 each way, which just seems ridiculously low to me. Even in the low season, flights from Sacramento to Hawaii are rarely below $400 round trip. If I were to book my summer dates right now with Alaska or Hawaiian, the round trip would be $730 per person. So there's a lot of room for Southwest to undercut current carriers without going to bargain basement prices.

Anyone have any wild guesses as to where the fares will land?

Last edited by mel2012; Feb 7, 2019 at 11:42 am Reason: typo
mel2012 is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 12:22 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: California
Programs: Marriott Gold (1st choice) BW Diamond (2nd)
Posts: 299
Originally Posted by mel2012
We've been eagerly waiting for the Southwest Hawaii service to start in anticipation of booking for a summer vacation. We need to book six tickets (plus two free companion tickets), so obviously it makes a big difference in my budget whether tickets are $300 or $600. Also, I've been stocking up on discount Southwest gift cards whenever Raise has a sale, so I'd like to have a better gauge of how much more I need to buy.

I've read several articles speculating that prices could be "as low as" $99 to $139 each way, which just seems ridiculously low to me. Even in the low season, flights from Sacramento to Hawaii are rarely below $400 round trip. If I were to book my summer dates right now with Alaska or Hawaiian, the round trip would be $730 per person. So there's a lot of room for Southwest to undercut current carriers without going to bargain basement prices.

Anyone have any wild guesses as to where the fares will land?
I could see tickets being at like 139 on the off season or when they have a sale but for summer when traveling to Hawaii is in more demand they will most likely be still 200+. Also we dont know yet when they will open up for bookings and when the first flights will be available. It would be wise to just book an alternative if you are set to go. I imagine there's a lot of people watching carefully for this so flights may be sold out within hours for more desirable dates, specially with southwest's cancellation and refund policy.
jm1991 is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 12:45 pm
  #3  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
Originally Posted by jm1991
I could see tickets being at like 139 on the off season or when they have a sale but for summer when traveling to Hawaii is in more demand they will most likely be still 200+. Also we dont know yet when they will open up for bookings and when the first flights will be available. It would be wise to just book an alternative if you are set to go. I imagine there's a lot of people watching carefully for this so flights may be sold out within hours for more desirable dates, specially with southwest's cancellation and refund policy.
How on earth does the route survive at fares anywhere close to that, given the eTOPS modifications and other restrictions?
Often1 is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 1:00 pm
  #4  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 13
Originally Posted by jm1991
I could see tickets being at like 139 on the off season or when they have a sale but for summer when traveling to Hawaii is in more demand they will most likely be still 200+. Also we dont know yet when they will open up for bookings and when the first flights will be available. It would be wise to just book an alternative if you are set to go. I imagine there's a lot of people watching carefully for this so flights may be sold out within hours for more desirable dates, specially with southwest's cancellation and refund policy.
I'll hopefully be one of those people buying within hours of when booking opens. I'm not going to "just" book an alternative when I'm sitting on two companion passes that allow us to have two people fly for free.

Since they'll be flying out of Oakland as well, which is driving distance from us, the "back up" plan would be to look for Oakland tickets, with the second back up option being to rearrange our dates.

Worst case would be to wait for low season and pull my kids out of school, which I'd prefer not to do,
mel2012 is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 1:08 pm
  #5  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Blue Ridge, GA
Posts: 5,492
Originally Posted by mel2012
I'll hopefully be one of those people buying within hours of when booking opens. I'm not going to "just" book an alternative when I'm sitting on two companion passes that allow us to have two people fly for free.
You sure Companion Pass and RR redemption rates/rules apply to Hawaii?
WestCoastFlyer likes this.
LegalTender is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 1:18 pm
  #6  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 13
Originally Posted by LegalTender
You sure Companion Pass and RR redemption rates/rules apply to Hawaii?
They would have to change the rules and restrictions listed as part of the program guidelines on their website: https://www.southwest.com/html/custo...nd_regulations

There's nothing to say they can't do that (the website specifically says: "Southwest reserves the right to amend, suspend, or change the program and/or program rules at any time without notice."). However, I think they would have a lot of pissed off people and it seems inconsistent with their overall business strategy of having the most flexible and usable rewards program in the business. They have never excluded any service (as far as I know) from the rewards/companion pass program.
mel2012 is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 1:34 pm
  #7  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,813
I doubt they'll change the Companion Pass rules, especially since they're now promoting upcoming Hawaii service and Companion Passes as a Credit Card bonus.

I could see Southwest just matching current fares to begin with. They'll see a lot of points travel and CP travel initially, add in a fare war and it could get ugly.
rsteinmetz70112 is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 2:11 pm
  #8  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,190
Originally Posted by mel2012

I've read several articles speculating that prices could be "as low as" $99 to $139 each way, which just seems ridiculously low to me. Even in the low season, flights from Sacramento to Hawaii are rarely below $400 round trip.
Maybe not from SMF but they are from Bay Area airports. ITA Matrix (which doesn't show WN, alas) shows 21 days next month for non-stops SFO/OAK/SJC-HNL r/t less than $400 for 7-8 days stays. $318 is the lowest fare.
3Cforme is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 2:29 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Blue Ridge, GA
Posts: 5,492
Sun Country launches SFO-HNL in early May at $520 r/t. Three classes of economy seats.

That makes six carriers serving the Bay Area to the islands.

Competition and ETOPS costs could justify one-off RR program tweaks.
LegalTender is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 2:48 pm
  #10  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: LAX/SMF/PDX/HNL
Programs: Hilton-lifetime diamond, Southwest A+, companion pass
Posts: 1,731
$750 RT initially with super high points price, just to clear up all the pent up demand.

I'll stick with HA or UAL until, perhaps, next year, when I feel the WN prices will become more competitive.
dlaue is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 3:24 pm
  #11  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 13
Interesting, because the summer fares are roughly comparable as between OAK and SMF, at over $700. Sun Country from SFO is cheaper at $524, but the bag fees eat up a big part of that differential.
mel2012 is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 5:25 pm
  #12  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,190
Summer is peak, not off-peak, to Hawaii. There's no need to dump tickets at lowest prices 4-6 months in advance.
Often1 likes this.
3Cforme is offline  
Old Feb 8, 2019, 10:50 am
  #13  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: SFO
Programs: AS MVP Gold / Marriott Bonvoy(age) Titanium Elite, IHG Platinum, WN A+/CP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 337
Lets go to the other end of the spectrum - any thoughts on what the Business Select fares will be? The highest in the SWA system is around 650.....will we see higher?
worldwidedreamer likes this.
isaac.chambers is offline  
Old Feb 8, 2019, 4:02 pm
  #14  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Verdi, NV, SFO & Olympic (aka Squaw )Valley.
Programs: Ikon Pass Full + AS Gold + Marriott Titanium + Hilton Gold. Recovering UA Plat. LT lounge AA+DL+UA
Posts: 3,815
As someone who routinely flies between the Bay Area and Hawaii, say 4x/year for the past decade, generally speaking fares below $400 RT are a good value.

As an MBA: Southwest intimated their entry will be aggressive. in the most recent quarter their CASM (cost per available seat mile) was 12.10, and RASM was 14.13. OAK-HNL is 2,409 miles each way, or 4,816 miles RT. This would imply that the average cost to sell a seat would be $582, and revenue $680. The thing to know about longer flights, e.g. Hawaii, is that the CASM should be lower than average because the plane spends more time flying versus being on the ground and is a high fixed cost on a bunch of different variables.

I weekly commute OAK-RNO, and assume that one of the largest costs of the flight is the time boarding people.

Part of why WN is a great business is that it loves making money off of customers without charging asinine fees. As their labor costs have risen Southwest can no longer always be the cheapest bet out there. Still---Hawaiian Airlines recently reported a CASM of 12.40 and RASM of 13.76, so all other things being equal Southwest could offer slightly less expensive fares (at break even 12.40-12.10=.30 delta per mile times 4816 miles =$14.44 cheaper/flight. Probably not enough to sway elites from either airline (not to mention AA+AS+DL+UA+etc) from their brand loyalty.

From my perspective this is all about a West Coast-focused airline (Many describe WN as a "Californian airlines headquartered in Texas") wanting to offer a frequent flyer program that reflects a regional preference to vacation in Hawaii versus the much father afield Caribbean.
mel2012 likes this.
worldwidedreamer is offline  
Old Feb 8, 2019, 4:14 pm
  #15  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,286
I have skepticism regarding Southwest's ability to maintain long term profitability on their Hawaii routes. Fares will need to account for a significant portion of the plane flying on points and/or CP, which to me means short term or very limited advertised sale low fares (think a bucket of 6 total) offset by a balance of higher than industry average ones. And possibly points redemption at exchange rates higher than we've seen so far. Demand will be high for a while, so I suspect passengers will find that using points and with a CP they're getting a better deal than elsewhere, but without not so much. It will be interesting to see.
ursine1 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.