Critterlynn

​​​​​​​Maybe, but I'd bet the majority of the people who fly Southwest aren't even aware of that hack.

ursine1

True enough. The delay could just be chalked up to their (ill-advised) faith in Boeing. United just announced that they're buying used 737-700s, but there's been no indication Southwest has any similar plans. All their eggs appear to be in the "MAX back in the air soon" basket.

nsx

Agreed. I have no doubt that the fixes will make the aircraft safe, but the self-interest of every aviation official is to delay approval until someone else can take the responsibility of certifying it safe. Not to mention the political advantage to be gained in Europe from imposing additional cost on a US manufacturer. I'm pretty sure we'd do the same to them.

Ironically, the high cost of this extended waiting time will make it harder for manufacturers and airlines to concur with grounding an aircraft type after the next unexplained accident. They will fight to keep them flying even though prudence favors grounding. For example, few cars and light trucks could withstand this level of design scrutiny. When they are recalled for safety items they aren't taken out of service immediately for over half a year while the fix is debated, engineered, and approved. People do die when recall repairs are delayed, but there would be a heavy cost to "ground" all those vehicles. There is always a balance to be struck.

LegalTender

Boeing has publicly stated that they won't go the aerodynamic fix route. A new certification would be required. A lot of entities bet on the "too big to fail" scenario.

Not expecting to see 'MAX' on the sides after they're are cleared to fly.

ymx

spongenotbob

Cledaybuck

spongenotbob

Cledaybuck

But Boeing already knows this and is still saying submit a fix to the FAA by September with hopeful return to service by October. Now, I think that is probably too optimistic a schedule on Boeing's part (towards the end of this year seems more likely to me, but, to be clear, I know nothing), but I would hope they are not 15 months off.

rsteinmetz70112

If the required changes involve additional hardware after the FAA approves the changes it will take some time to retrofit the planes and train the pilots.

ursine1

The potential proposed changes at this point seem to be only software. If anything like new angle of attack indicators or disagree lights are required, some carriers will need to have those added. I believe Southwest already has these as part of the heads-up display (added after the first crash).

There's no indication that any kind of physical restructuring of the planes' aerodynamics will be required by the FAA. And Boeing certainly doesn't want that. They've insisted the solution is a simple software fix.

Once Boeing has approval to roll out the fix(es), it will still take a couple of months to do so. Individual carriers will need to complete the updates and testing/verification, and also whatever pilot training is required. I suspect that to be somewhere above the hour on an iPad MAX initially triggered and below any actual simulator time, which Boeing and the carriers don't want to have to pay for or spend the time on. (I've also read that simulators are in short supply to begin with.)

Assuming international regulatory approval is in sync with US, and that this happens in the fall, some carriers my have planes flying as soon as the new year.

exwannabe

The original fix might be described as a simple software fix. What is on the table now is not simple, even if only firmware.

The change being talked about in the recent Seattle TImes article is certainly complex, Basically a redesign of the core concept of how the flight control systems work. Instead of the computer on the active side handling controls, both will be active and an arbitration system will lock them both out if they disagree, I have been responsible for developing such system (not flight control, but dual controls for redundancy and reliability), they are not something that gets done in a few months.

The change is because in the past the FAA has accepted the core Boeing concept that the computers are only an assist, and the pilots can always safely fly the plane. The recent test where a screw up by the computers that was not reacted to in the 1 second led to 1 of 3 simulated crashed of the Max was a huge issue. [Note, the article is unclear on how slow the pilots were in reacting]. But the FAA now wants more reliability than a single computer can ever present.

OK, Boeing has a lot of talent on board. So they might get it implemented faster than I could imagine. But you still have internal test and the FAA acceptance. And you know every insignificant flaw will raise flags.

I am very skeptical of this year. And think early 2020 is hopeful. 2021 is not out of play.

LegalTender

And the dual active and arbitration systems would only be add-ons to the MAX, not the NGs? Not sure that's feasible given crew demands of global carriers. A hybrid of training levels in the cockpit owing to scheduling is a risky expedient.

Had Boeing insisted on MCAS specific training in the first place, perhaps no one would be contemplating all this.

ursine1

From the previously linked article:

Obviously, October is absurdly optimistic. But I wouldn't be surprised to see things happen very quickly once the FAA says go. Especially if the training requirements are minimal. Southwest management has claimed all along that there's nothing wrong with the planes. Carriers are losing money and will do whatever it takes to reverse that as soon as they can.



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poximex

I am curious if Boeing's other product lines already implement a schema where both flight computers are used. Any fliers or mechanics out there have the answer?