copperred

With the exception of the FAA, which at this point has zero credibility, it seems unlikely that the MAX will be flying before the end of the year.

argolfer

That's my gut reaction, too. But most people just aren't following this like we are. And to put it bluntly, the near-term alternative to the MAX flying (as in, the next 1-5 years) is skyrocketing prices and fewer flight options right at a time when the Asian market explodes. I don't think politics will play in too much. At this point, the only thing that matters is Boeing convincing authorities that this specific aircraft is safe. The rest of the fallout will have to wait.

copperred

We can look back on how the early DC-10 flaws affected the aircraft and McDonnell Douglas. While it bounced back later, it also existed in a time with less information available to fewer people. I don't think the MAX, with it's big typeface naming and ease of eliminating it from searches, has the same kind of buffer built in.

I expect Boeing to be a continuing business but without significant changes in the FAA's model of regulation (or actually doing any) the MAX may end up dragging down Boeing for a decade. They've been kicking the can down the road for so long and the issues with the 787 early on, as well as the hoped for but fizzled out 747-8 (so few passenger ac bought) the commercial aircraft side is going to need support from the rest of the business.

Southwest may need to look into buying some more 737-800/900s in the secondary market. Southwest has a great brand, much better than the legacies but I doubt they would accept the MAX impacting their plans.

Tanic

Shortly after the AA DC10 crash at ORD, American's marketing department went into overdrive to make the term "DC10" disappear. The airplane was redubbed the "American Airlines Luxury Liner" including painting over the DC10 lettering on the fuselage. It worked in the pre-internet age. Then the airplane became an MD11.

ursine1

Boeing has stated that no rebranding or name change is being considered, but I suspect they'll get past that at the point they truly admit their guilt in the situation and embrace greater transparency. All of which would be the correct course of action here, IMHO.

Alternately, they can play hardball, keep blaming the pilots, install some new software, get the FAA to approve the "737-8", and hope that people's long-term memory is crap.

Which do you think is more likely?

LegalTender

Not blaming the pilots is pretty unrealistic.

If Ford designed a hidden system that would randomly and aggressively steer your car into the oncoming traffic, it would certainly be a problem with Ford, not the driver.

But nothing in the Boeing checklist overrode the runaway system.

ursine1

In case it wasn't clear, what I think should be the correct course of action and what is the more likely eventuality are two different things.

tmiw

If Boeing came out and said that they were going to push for full recertification as a new aircraft type (instead of just certifying the MCAS fix), how quickly would they be able to get that done? And would that help with customer confidence at all?

copperred

Boeing can try to unmake reality with a time machine but they're looking at both civil and possibly criminal liability here, so they probably should plan not to speak of it anytime soon. Even their own press releases document obvious guilt.

The 737-8 already exists as the 737-800 NGs. Boeing may end up with an airliner they can't sell, and then will have to swallow their all too big pride.

ursine1

Not speaking would of course be a major public relations misstep. How their message is viewed as being communicated​​​​​ is more important to the consumer than details at this point. And while it's probably too late for complete transparency, an effort at appearing like that was a priority would go far.

737-8 is another name for the 737-MAX 8. My point was that they wouldn't necessarily rebrand, but rather just drop the MAX designation. The 737-8 and the 737-800 are different aircraft.

Bear96

Yeah, it seems as if there were an easy fix to this, we would have heard about it by now and things would be a lot further along on the road to getting them flying again.

copperred

Have you read their press releases? They're pretty awful and silence would probably serve them far better. Some admit outright error and that they were aware of the issue.

The MAX and 737-800 are different designs of the aircraft yes, but losing a couple of zeroes attempts to conflate it with the 800 since many systems will do that to the consumer or to a booker. That sort of sleight of hand could taint the 737-800NG aircraft with the MAX.

ursine1

Agreed that Boeing is handling things terribly. Admitting error and accepting responsibility would be the correct approach, but given the potential depth of their negligence (as it becomes more known), it's understandable they've shifted to legalese. But I still believe it's the wrong approach.

To be clear, 737-8 is already used as a designation for the 737-MAX 8.

Consumers are already confused, primarily due to the similar naming, but they more or less know now the issue is with the "MAX."

I think Boeing simply dropping "MAX" would be the most obvious approach, leaving both the 737-8 and the 737-800. This doesn't require rebranding per se, but has the same effect over time.

expert7700

This weekend a Southwest captain showed my son and I the cockpit (not the first time...). He started asking my son if he knew how to make the engines throttle up. My son instead wanted to see and try to turn the stabilizer manual trim wheel.

The captain obliged and to my shock said "if only the pilots in Ethiopia had done this, all those poor souls would have been saved." Wait. WHAT?

I fear plenty of other pilots without a full awareness of what actually happened or without MCAS hands on training/testing could be back in the air on a MAX soon.

I don't want to settle for someone who has taken an ipad course to say 'yeah, I got this'.

MAX simulators are in short supply... That is surely putting pressure on the airlines and the FAA. But how did pilots become certified back in the day before simulators existed?

And guess what ISN'T in short supply?
ACTUAL New 737 MAX aircraft. By the hundreds.

Boeing could fly a couple hundred test/certification flights per day. Every 737 pilot could be required to pass a MCAS recovery in-flight. Certainly a big-hammer approach but what a good way to restore public confidence.

copperred

Someone that arrogant shouldn't be a pilot.