"SWA New Hawaii Routes Will ‘Ignite’ Credit Card Sign-Ups"
Mar 14, 2018, 7:29 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: SJC, Northern Cal.
Programs: SWA RR BIS 6.2M, A+'20, CP'20, AA, UA Gold, Hertz PC, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 909
"SWA New Hawaii Routes Will ‘Ignite’ Credit Card Sign-Ups"
"When Southwest Airlines evaluates routes, it researches at all the data you expect, including how many travelers fly on existing flights, and the average fares they pay. But for leisure opportunities, it often examines something else — potential credit card applications."
https://skift.com/2018/03/11/southwe...card-sign-ups/
"Why Southwest wants to fly to Hawaii- Sexier redemption opportunities mean more members & money"
https://www.sfgate.com/chris-mcginni...t-12750371.php
https://skift.com/2018/03/11/southwe...card-sign-ups/
"Why Southwest wants to fly to Hawaii- Sexier redemption opportunities mean more members & money"
https://www.sfgate.com/chris-mcginni...t-12750371.php
Mar 15, 2018, 9:25 am
#3
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Chicagoland, IL, USA
Programs: WN CP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 14,174
WN is already at 14% of their seats systemwide not paid with cash, and it has gone up about 1% a year for about 5 years (check their 10(k) reports). When Hawaii goes through, the number of CP holders/Companions on those routes will be very high. Every wedding/travel blogger on the planet will push "get 2 WN CCs and take your new spouse to Hawaii for free." Those folks can books when the flights open, as opposed to most businessfolk.
I still predict that on a cut-throat route like CA-Hawaii, WN will introduce some kind of restriction on CP use. If not, I imagine that at least 25% of the plane will be people flying on their "free points" and another 25% Companions. Can WN swing that?
I still predict that on a cut-throat route like CA-Hawaii, WN will introduce some kind of restriction on CP use. If not, I imagine that at least 25% of the plane will be people flying on their "free points" and another 25% Companions. Can WN swing that?
Mar 15, 2018, 10:00 am
#4
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,190
Has WN disclosed the number of Chase credit card holders, or number of Rapid Rewards accounts? I didn't see references in the annual report nor last investor update.
Mar 15, 2018, 10:12 am
#5
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,598
WN is already at 14% of their seats systemwide not paid with cash, and it has gone up about 1% a year for about 5 years (check their 10(k) reports). When Hawaii goes through, the number of CP holders/Companions on those routes will be very high. Every wedding/travel blogger on the planet will push "get 2 WN CCs and take your new spouse to Hawaii for free." Those folks can books when the flights open, as opposed to most businessfolk.
I still predict that on a cut-throat route like CA-Hawaii, WN will introduce some kind of restriction on CP use. If not, I imagine that at least 25% of the plane will be people flying on their "free points" and another 25% Companions. Can WN swing that?
I still predict that on a cut-throat route like CA-Hawaii, WN will introduce some kind of restriction on CP use. If not, I imagine that at least 25% of the plane will be people flying on their "free points" and another 25% Companions. Can WN swing that?
Remember you have to be 3/24 or under to get CP via credit cards, many non churners open cards at department stores, for new car tires, furniture offers at 0%, etc, etc which may disqualify them .
Mar 15, 2018, 10:15 am
#6
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: SFO
Posts: 3,878
I suspect CC bonus pts will not qualify for CP.
Mar 15, 2018, 10:49 am
#7
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,286
I do not see them making any restrictions on CP use for Hawaii. I just see fares that aren't competitive (unless you factor in CP) and/or flights sold out very quickly. This still allows them to claim they have service.
Now knowing the amount of money being made selling points to Chase, I don't see them changing signing bonus points CP qualification anytime soon.
Now knowing the amount of money being made selling points to Chase, I don't see them changing signing bonus points CP qualification anytime soon.
Mar 15, 2018, 12:37 pm
#8
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,813
I don't expect much change. Perhaps the low fare buckets will be smaller to increase yield and increase the points cost for many people. One advantage to Southwest is that this opportunity will cause many people to use points to go to Hawaii rather than closer destinations. This will reduce the liability for the billions of outstanding Rapid Rewards points, increasing their balance sheet.
Mar 15, 2018, 12:49 pm
#9
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,598
In reality it's all opinion, who saw 5/24 or Amex once in a lifetime ( with some exceptions years later) coming ?
We can't be the only people who have flown 50 plus free SW flights ( since 2013) and never paid for one flight which is more less impossible today on any other airline.
We have CP until 12/31/2019 and 500K plus WN points in stock so it won't effect us either way for a long time.
We can't be the only people who have flown 50 plus free SW flights ( since 2013) and never paid for one flight which is more less impossible today on any other airline.
We have CP until 12/31/2019 and 500K plus WN points in stock so it won't effect us either way for a long time.
Mar 15, 2018, 1:10 pm
#10
Moderator: Southwest Airlines, Capital One
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: California
Programs: WN Companion Pass, A-list preferred, Hyatt Globalist; United Club Lietime (sic) Member
Posts: 21,617
The real problem is Hawaii residents who use the CP to commute to the mainland.
The logical solution is a limit of one or two CP Hawaii round trips per year.
Mar 15, 2018, 2:29 pm
#11
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Chicagoland, IL, USA
Programs: WN CP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 14,174
How many Hawaii vacations can a person take in a year? Normally 1. Southwest will be well compensated for that seat by Chase.
The real problem is Hawaii residents who use the CP to commute to the mainland.
The logical solution is a limit of one or two CP Hawaii round trips per year.
The real problem is Hawaii residents who use the CP to commute to the mainland.
The logical solution is a limit of one or two CP Hawaii round trips per year.
This site says 2.3 million weddings a year: https://www.soundvision.com/article/...-united-states
12% of 4.6 million people is 552,000 people a year. Sounds like a significant number to me in light of the following:
This site from a few years back says 7,600,000 travelers to Hawaii annually: https://www.govisithawaii.com/2009/07/30/hawaii-fact-28-of-50-how-many-people-visit-hawaii-each-year/
Plus people who travel more than once a year.
And I agree it's only a matter of time until points from CC bonuses do not count toward CP.
Mar 15, 2018, 2:35 pm
#12
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,286
Companion Pass qualification drives credit card sign ups.
Credit card sign-ups generate significant revenue for Southwest.
In my opinion, it's highly unlikely Southwest will implement any program changes that devalue specifically only credit card points of any kind.
Credit card sign-ups generate significant revenue for Southwest.
In my opinion, it's highly unlikely Southwest will implement any program changes that devalue specifically only credit card points of any kind.
Mar 15, 2018, 2:41 pm
#13
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,598
It says 12% of people who do a destination honeymoon go to Hawaii, not all people have a honeymoon where they travel or a honeymoon at all
This link (a few years old),say 12% of honeymooners go to Hawaii.: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...-Released-Knot
This site says 2.3 million weddings a year: https://www.soundvision.com/article/...-united-states
12% of 4.6 million people is 552,000 people a year. Sounds like a significant number to me in light of the following:
This site from a few years back says 7,600,000 travelers to Hawaii annually: https://www.govisithawaii.com/2009/07/30/hawaii-fact-28-of-50-how-many-people-visit-hawaii-each-year/
Plus people who travel more than once a year.
And I agree it's only a matter of time until points from CC bonuses do not count toward CP.
This site says 2.3 million weddings a year: https://www.soundvision.com/article/...-united-states
12% of 4.6 million people is 552,000 people a year. Sounds like a significant number to me in light of the following:
This site from a few years back says 7,600,000 travelers to Hawaii annually: https://www.govisithawaii.com/2009/07/30/hawaii-fact-28-of-50-how-many-people-visit-hawaii-each-year/
Plus people who travel more than once a year.
And I agree it's only a matter of time until points from CC bonuses do not count toward CP.
Mar 15, 2018, 2:45 pm
#14
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Chicagoland, IL, USA
Programs: WN CP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 14,174
We were blindsided by WN cutting off hotel transfers in counting toward CP as of 1/1/18, later amended to 3/31/18. . I do not think anything is sacrosanct.
And I just realized that the percentage of honeymooners who go to Hawaii likely will increase when they figure out they can get “free” airline tickets there.
You think the bloggers relentlessly pound the CP talk now, wait until Hawaii opens. The Points Guy will post it every day.
And I just realized that the percentage of honeymooners who go to Hawaii likely will increase when they figure out they can get “free” airline tickets there.
You think the bloggers relentlessly pound the CP talk now, wait until Hawaii opens. The Points Guy will post it every day.
Mar 15, 2018, 2:47 pm
#15
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,598
I have been on this forum for about a decade and years ago ( I got CP for the fist time in 2014) I heard about CP but thought it was a one time use such as the BOGO certs that DL offers
Being 3/24 or less also changed things a lot. I noticed this year there were fewer questions about 2018/2019 CP , probably because less people were able to get it because of 5/24
