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"SWA New Hawaii Routes Will ‘Ignite’ Credit Card Sign-Ups"

"SWA New Hawaii Routes Will ‘Ignite’ Credit Card Sign-Ups"

Old Mar 14, 18, 7:29 pm
  #1  
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"SWA New Hawaii Routes Will ‘Ignite’ Credit Card Sign-Ups"

"When Southwest Airlines evaluates routes, it researches at all the data you expect, including how many travelers fly on existing flights, and the average fares they pay. But for leisure opportunities, it often examines something else — potential credit card applications."
https://skift.com/2018/03/11/southwe...card-sign-ups/

"Why Southwest wants to fly to Hawaii- Sexier redemption opportunities mean more members & money"
https://www.sfgate.com/chris-mcginni...t-12750371.php
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Old Mar 14, 18, 9:10 pm
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This is the first explanation that makes sense to me, actually.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 9:25 am
  #3  
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WN is already at 14% of their seats systemwide not paid with cash, and it has gone up about 1% a year for about 5 years (check their 10(k) reports). When Hawaii goes through, the number of CP holders/Companions on those routes will be very high. Every wedding/travel blogger on the planet will push "get 2 WN CCs and take your new spouse to Hawaii for free." Those folks can books when the flights open, as opposed to most businessfolk.

I still predict that on a cut-throat route like CA-Hawaii, WN will introduce some kind of restriction on CP use. If not, I imagine that at least 25% of the plane will be people flying on their "free points" and another 25% Companions. Can WN swing that?
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Old Mar 15, 18, 10:00 am
  #4  
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Has WN disclosed the number of Chase credit card holders, or number of Rapid Rewards accounts? I didn't see references in the annual report nor last investor update.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 10:12 am
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Originally Posted by toomanybooks View Post
WN is already at 14% of their seats systemwide not paid with cash, and it has gone up about 1% a year for about 5 years (check their 10(k) reports). When Hawaii goes through, the number of CP holders/Companions on those routes will be very high. Every wedding/travel blogger on the planet will push "get 2 WN CCs and take your new spouse to Hawaii for free." Those folks can books when the flights open, as opposed to most businessfolk.

I still predict that on a cut-throat route like CA-Hawaii, WN will introduce some kind of restriction on CP use. If not, I imagine that at least 25% of the plane will be people flying on their "free points" and another 25% Companions. Can WN swing that?
I would much rather see them restrict CP on Hawaii flights that take it away all together or make it much harder to get.

Remember you have to be 3/24 or under to get CP via credit cards, many non churners open cards at department stores, for new car tires, furniture offers at 0%, etc, etc which may disqualify them .
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Old Mar 15, 18, 10:15 am
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Originally Posted by toomanybooks View Post
I still predict that on a cut-throat route like CA-Hawaii, WN will introduce some kind of restriction on CP use. If not, I imagine that at least 25% of the plane will be people flying on their "free points" and another 25% Companions. Can WN swing that?
I suspect CC bonus pts will not qualify for CP.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 10:49 am
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I do not see them making any restrictions on CP use for Hawaii. I just see fares that aren't competitive (unless you factor in CP) and/or flights sold out very quickly. This still allows them to claim they have service.

Now knowing the amount of money being made selling points to Chase, I don't see them changing signing bonus points CP qualification anytime soon.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 12:37 pm
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I don't expect much change. Perhaps the low fare buckets will be smaller to increase yield and increase the points cost for many people. One advantage to Southwest is that this opportunity will cause many people to use points to go to Hawaii rather than closer destinations. This will reduce the liability for the billions of outstanding Rapid Rewards points, increasing their balance sheet.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 12:49 pm
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In reality it's all opinion, who saw 5/24 or Amex once in a lifetime ( with some exceptions years later) coming ?

We can't be the only people who have flown 50 plus free SW flights ( since 2013) and never paid for one flight which is more less impossible today on any other airline.

We have CP until 12/31/2019 and 500K plus WN points in stock so it won't effect us either way for a long time.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 1:10 pm
  #10  
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Originally Posted by toomanybooks View Post
I still predict that on a cut-throat route like CA-Hawaii, WN will introduce some kind of restriction on CP use. If not, I imagine that at least 25% of the plane will be people flying on their "free points" and another 25% Companions. Can WN swing that?
How many Hawaii vacations can a person take in a year? Normally 1. Southwest will be well compensated for that seat by Chase.

The real problem is Hawaii residents who use the CP to commute to the mainland.

The logical solution is a limit of one or two CP Hawaii round trips per year.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 2:29 pm
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Originally Posted by nsx View Post
How many Hawaii vacations can a person take in a year? Normally 1. Southwest will be well compensated for that seat by Chase.

The real problem is Hawaii residents who use the CP to commute to the mainland.

The logical solution is a limit of one or two CP Hawaii round trips per year.
This link (a few years old),say 12% of honeymooners go to Hawaii.: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...-Released-Knot

This site says 2.3 million weddings a year: https://www.soundvision.com/article/...-united-states

12% of 4.6 million people is 552,000 people a year. Sounds like a significant number to me in light of the following:

This site from a few years back says 7,600,000 travelers to Hawaii annually: https://www.govisithawaii.com/2009/07/30/hawaii-fact-28-of-50-how-many-people-visit-hawaii-each-year/

Plus people who travel more than once a year.

And I agree it's only a matter of time until points from CC bonuses do not count toward CP.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 2:35 pm
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Companion Pass qualification drives credit card sign ups.

Credit card sign-ups generate significant revenue for Southwest.

In my opinion, it's highly unlikely Southwest will implement any program changes that devalue specifically only credit card points of any kind.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 2:41 pm
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It says 12% of people who do a destination honeymoon go to Hawaii, not all people have a honeymoon where they travel or a honeymoon at all

Originally Posted by toomanybooks View Post
This link (a few years old),say 12% of honeymooners go to Hawaii.: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...-Released-Knot

This site says 2.3 million weddings a year: https://www.soundvision.com/article/...-united-states

12% of 4.6 million people is 552,000 people a year. Sounds like a significant number to me in light of the following:

This site from a few years back says 7,600,000 travelers to Hawaii annually: https://www.govisithawaii.com/2009/07/30/hawaii-fact-28-of-50-how-many-people-visit-hawaii-each-year/

Plus people who travel more than once a year.

And I agree it's only a matter of time until points from CC bonuses do not count toward CP.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 2:45 pm
  #14  
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We were blindsided by WN cutting off hotel transfers in counting toward CP as of 1/1/18, later amended to 3/31/18. . I do not think anything is sacrosanct.

And I just realized that the percentage of honeymooners who go to Hawaii likely will increase when they figure out they can get “free” airline tickets there.

You think the bloggers relentlessly pound the CP talk now, wait until Hawaii opens. The Points Guy will post it every day.
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Old Mar 15, 18, 2:47 pm
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Originally Posted by ursine1 View Post
Companion Pass qualification drives credit card sign ups.

Credit card sign-ups generate significant revenue for Southwest.

In my opinion, it's highly unlikely Southwest will implement any program changes that devalue specifically only credit card points of any kind.
I doubt the average person even knows about getting CP via credit cards. I have told many people on the Vegas forum I follow who held one WN credit card but were clueless about CP via a 2nd or 3rd card.

I have been on this forum for about a decade and years ago ( I got CP for the fist time in 2014) I heard about CP but thought it was a one time use such as the BOGO certs that DL offers

Being 3/24 or less also changed things a lot. I noticed this year there were fewer questions about 2018/2019 CP , probably because less people were able to get it because of 5/24
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