Airline analyst Hunter Keay of New York-based Wolfe Research wrote in an Oct. 6 research note that using 30 prior Southwest route announcements and U.S. Department of Transportation data as a guide that he is guessing Southwest will launch six routes to Hawaii with once-daily service. His projected city pairings are Los Angeles, Oakland, San Diego and Phoenix to Honolulu and/or Maui. All six routes would overlap with Hawaiian Airlines, he wrote.

But Keay, speculating ahead of Southwest’s announcement, wrote that he doesn’t see Southwest succeeding in Hawaii because — among several things — it lacks the on-board products to compete in Hawaii against airlines that are larger and offer a full-service option for higher income Hawaii vacationers. He also said Southwest’s “bags fly free” policy could create turnaround time headaches since an estimated 68 percent of passengers to Hawaii check bags, and that there could be potential service problems if bags are lost. He also said there could be lots of passengers redeeming frequent flier points to travel to Hawaii, which could disrupt Southwest’s pricing.

“It’s perhaps safe to say (Southwest) may grow there initially and not grow too much thereafter, if history is a guide,” he wrote. “We believe (Southwest) will disrupt (Hawaiian Airlines) for a short period of time before pulling back or even abandoning service to Hawaii altogether after failing to gain traction there.”