Marko123

I'm supposed to take a flight into TPA on Thursday evening but I'm worried about this storm. How do air carriers usually deal with these? Is it mostly the high winds that cause disruptions or can rain volume cause problems too?

Is there a website out there that keeps track of what air carriers do or are planning in times like these? All the TV stations and articles only talk about how it will affect people on land and never mention air travel.

...Or at least decodes the forecast?

creditcardgeek

I am curious about this as well! I am scheduled for a Thurs PM flight on Delta.

joshua362

Usually winds greater than 40 kph will shut down commercial airliners. Go to: https://www.aviationweather.gov/taf?gis=off enter KTPA and decoded.

The forecasts are for the next 30 hours, nothing looks bad now but check at 2pm and 8pm tonight to get the big picture for tomorrow night.

creditcardgeek

Interesting. I am on a flight out of tpa on thurs PM towards Atlanta. I'm assuming it would probably be a good idea to switch to the first flight out on Thursday morning to try and "beat" the storm?

Ceres

I am sitting at the Grand Hyatt accross from TPA

Here is the current view.But the planes are taking off an landing now.

I do with I could navigate the site better you posted Josh

joshua362

Try this instead, its decoded, focus on the winds, currently only 12 mph (first group). subtract 4 from UTC to get EDT times for the forecast period, right now it only goes up to 8am tomorrow. Rain generally not a worry, winds and gusts ("G") are.

https://www.aviationweather.gov/taf/...s=on&layout=on

PS I know area very well, I used to stay at several of the hotels on that island before the long bridge and learned to fly in the St Pete - Tampa area.

Marko123

Good stuff, thanks.

Ceres

Thanks! my GF is supposed to fly in tonight at midnight from MDW. I was worried about the weather and her flight getting in.

I just rented a condo for a year on Anna maria Island south-of here. Just working in the Grand Hyatt Until Friday. BTW and off topic... This is probably my favorite domestic hyatt. especially as a dia. the lounge is great and I used a DSU so I could could not ask for much more.... other than weather!!

it looks like crap here!!!

joshua362

Hard to say, I'm not seeing anything forecast that would completely shut down the airport but if you have the flexibility why not? Could be conditions worse than forecast or plane unable to get in from other areas plus the upcoming holiday crunch will make it hard to get home if it doesn't go off.

But remember TV will make it sound like gloom and doom while airlines want to fly their schedules to make money and minimize disruptions elsewhere and we are usually stuck in the middle...

OPNLguy

Speaking as a recently retired airline dispatcher, allow me to note that while windspeed is certainly one factor in airport operations being affected, it's not the only one. The other major one is the CROSSwind component, that is, the wind direction and speed relative to the runway's alignment.

For example, at TPA, the parallel runways are oriented roughly north/south, and was the wind out of one of those two directions at, say 40-50 kts, one could theoretically land straight into such a direct headwind (and zero crosswind). If the wind was directly from the east or west at 40-50 kts, landing on those north/south runways would involve zero headwind (or tailwind) but a 40-50 kt crosswind--which would exceed the usual 35-40 max crosswind limit of most types of airline aircraft. Complicating that scenario further is the fact that the "max" crosswind limits can be reduced below the usual 35-40 kts should the runway be wet (good chance in a tropical storm) and/or the ability to decelerate on the runway (braking action) be degraded from that of a dry runway. In excess water, airplanes can hydroplane too, despite having the aviation equivalent of anti-lock brakes..

Continuing the example at TPA, winds from varying angles and speeds relative to the runways would produced various crosswind combinations, and these, as well as runway braking action reports, are continuously monitored by an airline's dispatchers, as well at ATC tower controllers, and relayed to crews.

The big variable in predicting all this in advance is exactly where the eye of the storm will track some hours into the future. A big misconception is that airports are only affected once the eye passes nearby, but since strong winds exist on either side of the eye (albeit from different directions) wind can affect an airport both BEFORE and AFTER eye passage. "Hours" in the future is also a critical factor here, since any decision for an airline to suspend ops at the airport (and evacuate aircraft) must be made really early, BEFORE winds from an approaching storm can exceed max crosswind limits and essentially trap aircraft on the ground, and encounter probable/likely damage or destruction.

My suggestion would to monitor SWA (or any airline's) website for updates.

Marko123

Thanks for the info!

FWIW, they just posted the travel advisory: https://www.southwest.com/html/advis...651927869.html

mke9499

If you are flying WN thru Saturday to cities in FL likely to be impacted, check your reservations for this message:

There is also a notice on WN's site about weather considerations:

https://www.southwest.com/html/advis...651927869.html

Cities in the advisory are RSW, JAX, MCO, ECP, and TPA.

Marko123

Beat ya by 5 minutes

Ceres

Its pea soup here, but I hear the planes taking off and landing,

Marko123

Looks like everything is going smoothly so far today.